New polling data came out today about lame duck Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty's anemic 2012 presidential campaign. Pawlenty's presidential hopes have never really gotten off the ground. He has continually polled in the lower single digits.
Keep in mind that this is the same flawed MPR/Humphrey Institute poll Joe dissected yesterday. In other words, because of the rightwards skewing of this poll, this news could be even worse.
Do you want the good news or the bad news first? What? Okay, but I'm going to give you the good news for Timmeh first.
...But Pawlenty easily beats former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, 59 to 24 percent.
Yup. That's right. The current sitting Governor of Minnesota whomps the Quittah from Wasilla. Timmeh wins today's tallest midget award for that one.
The rest of the news is bad.
...when it comes to whether Minnesotans would vote for Pawlenty for president, a majority, or 53 percent, consider that unlikely. Even nearly one in four Republicans, or 23 percent, say they've be unlikely to vote for him.
Ouch. A majority of Minnesotans wouldn't vote for him and nearly 1 our of 4 Republicans wouldn't support him in a primary contest.
Possibly even more stinging for the governor is a question about who would make a better president among potential Republican competitors. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney outpolls Pawlenty on that question, 45 percent to 32 percent.
He can't even beat Mittens the Mormon in his own backyard.
Is this good news that he finally got out of the lower single digits in a poll or is this a sign of the his campaign leaving the runway and hitting the first tree?
Lame duck Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty had more bad news today. Pawlenty has 1% of Iowa Republicans supporting him. Pawlenty has consistently been unable to rise above the low single digits in 2012 presidential polling.
Pawlenty scored 1 percent in a poll of Republican presidential hopefuls released Monday by the Iowa Republican, putting him in a distant tie for sixth out of 10 candidates in the poll.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 Iowa caucuses, led at 22 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 18 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 14 percent and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at 11 percent.
As Pawlenty's presidential campaign trundles down the runway unable to achieve flight, I wonder how long the runway is and how long until his campaign loses its wings amongst the trees?
Poor Tim Pawlenty. Our lame duck Governor's 2012 Presidential campaign just can't get off the ground. At what point does his aspirations go off the end of the runway and into the trees?
The Clarus Group, a non-partisan research and polling firm, conducted a national survey that wasn't sponsored by anyone.
The modestly interesting finding: All the leading candidates have declined or stagnated over the company's three surveys, the first of them in August 2009. The leader, Mitt Romney, is down to 26 percent from 30 percent. Mike Huckabee's stable at 21 percent; he was at 22 percent before. Newt Gingrich is at 14 percent, from 15 percent. And Sarah Palin, the biggest mover, is at 12 percent, down from 18 percent.
The extra votes seem go to names that were added to the list: low single digits for Pawlenty, Alexander, Barbour, Daniels and Thune.
Emmer now has the support of 77% of Minnesota Republicans, while 87% of the state's Democrats back Dayton. Among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties, 37% prefer Dayton, 27% Emmer and 20% Horner, a former Republican who describes himself as the moderate in the race.
Under normal two-party circumstances, most of those disaffected Republicans would come home to Emmer, but since they have a second, less abrasively reactionary Republican choice, they might not be as likely to fall in line. - promoted by Joe Bodell)
Aaron Klemz pulled together some interesting data together at Cucking Stool yesterday. He looked at DFL/R/I breakdowns in several of the recent polls. I chronicled how Norm Coleman had a huge lead over Al Franken in the summer of 2008 and McCain came close to Obama in September 2008 -- skewing the DFL/R breakdown. When pollsters increase the percentage of Republicans in their polls, surprisingly, the Republicans do better. Unless a poll has DFLers close to 40% and Republicans under 30%, it isn't accurate. People self-identifying as Republicans is at an all-time low.
Over the past month and a half there have been four major polls on the Governor's race. Of the three that reported partisan identification numbers, the differences are huge (Rasmussen does not report party ID in their publicly available toplines.)
So what does this polling data tell us? Republican MN-GOV candidate Tom Emmer is in serious trouble. Not only will former Republican Tom Horner steal votes from him, but he's doing quite poorly against any of the DFLers vying to win the primary.
The poll also found that if the general election were held right now, Dayton might have a slight edge, but it would be a toss-up regardless of which Democrat ends up taking on Republican candidate Rep. Tom Emmer.
The poll of 701 Minnesota adults, which was taken May 13-May16, shows Dayton is the favorite among likely DFL primary voters by a 10-point margin: 38 percent to 28 percent over House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher.
With a nearly 6% MoE, Dayton has a slight lead, but an interesting breakdown of the data shows that Dayton leads MAK among DFL women by 6%.
The good news for whomever prevails in the DFL primary is this:
A third of the Republicans who responded to the poll said they were either undecided, supporting a Democrat or backing the Independence Party-endorsed candidate Tom Horner.
Jacobs says for the sole Republican candidate to have only two-thirds of party members backing him is extraordinary, and not good news for Emmer.
Emmer is not well known and does not have the Republicans in the state behind him. I think that former Republican Tom Horner (running as the IP candidate) has a great chance to pull a healthy margin of Republicans away from Emmer as I think many Republicans will be as frightened of Emmer as I am.
Poor Tim Pawlenty. The DFLers won't cut him any slack and, apparently, neither will Minnesotans. A recent SurveyUSA poll shows that a majority of Minnesotans don't like the job he's doing. These are his worst numbers as Governor.
Not great news if you're running for president: A new SurveyUSA poll finds that 52% of Minnesotans disapprove of the job Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is doing and only 42% approve, "giving him some of the lowest marks he's gotten in his seven plus years at the state's helm."
(Political Wire)
It's going to be fun as his 2012 presidential campaign "ramps up" and we Minnesotans get to tell the nation what a rotten Governor he's been. I'm trying to think of slogans for his 2012 campaign.
Whoops! Looks like I may have blown a prediction. After looking at Bachmann numbers from earlier this year, I went out on a limb and predicted that Bachmann would try to get into the race for Minnesota governor or senator. Her numbers in Minnesota polling and her district had been surprisingly strong, given the fact that she's a nut, liar and bigot.
But tonight the Minnesota Independent reports that a new poll shows that Minnesotans view Bachmann unfavorably. Excerpt:
Poll: Majority of Minnesotans 'embarrassed' by Bachmann
By Paul Schmelzer 2/11/10 6:00 AM
A new survey of Minnesotans shows that a majority of residents - 56 percent - are embarrassed by Rep. Michele Bachmann. The release of the survey, commissioned by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, Democracy for America and Credo Action, follows recent high-profile statements by Bachmann that she believes President Barack Obama wants to "annihilate" conservatives, that the U.S. faces a "curse" - and extinction - if it fails to support Israel, and that government must "wean" Americans off of social safety net programs like Medicare and Social Security.
...Predictably, 87 percent of Democrats polled said they were embarrassed, while only 12 percent of Republicans agreed (58 pecent of Republican respondents said they were proud of Bachmann)...
...The survey of 600 Minnesotans gauged feedback based on gender (by four percentage points, more women favored Bachmann than men), race (55 percent of whites are embarrassed by the congresswoman, while 80 percent of people of other races held that sentiment) and congressional district.
Good news for those of us who want to see Michele Bachmann's political career go no higher than the Sixth District level. I'd feel better if it had been a conservative polling outfit that had come to these conclusions, but conservatives are unlikely to disclose findings like that.
I'm not withdrawing my prediction--yet. But this is good news for Bachmann opponents everywhere. If Bachmann is as unpopular in Minnesota as this poll indicates (it's a reversal of a trend found in a poll conducted earlier this year) it's going to be that much harder for her to convince the MN GOP that's she's the go-to candidate for higher office in the state.
And conventional political wisdom holds that a politician has to hold a serious leadership position--state governor, senator or military leader--to get serious consideration for a White House run.
So let's hope that the Progressive Change Campaign Committee/Democracy for America/Credo Action poll findings hold for the foreseeable future.
By the way: since the Minnesota Independent has done the best regular reporting on Bachmann's career in this state, changes in MnIndy are worth noting here.
David Brauer of the MinnPost.com reports that MNIndy editor Paul Schmelzer has been promoted to managing editor of newly renamed parent American Independent News Network (AINN). (Schmelzer, by the way, is the author of this latest Bachmann poll story.)
Schmelzer says that MNIndy will still be his primary duty, and MNIndy still retains Andy Birkey has a reporter. Birkey is perhaps the best regular reporter on the Bachmann story in this state.
Read the MNIndy article on poll results, paying special attention to the findings on the views of independent voters that are mentioned in the fifth paragraph:
http://minnesotaindependent.co...
(Sorry to bump two recent posts down the page for my own stuff, but I want to make sure readers see this one and have a chance to comment. - promoted by Joe Bodell)
In my previous poll of the MPP community on the DFL gubernatorial field, I asked "who are you supporting?"
Here are what I think we can consider "final" results:
* R.T. Rybak - 43 votes (24.57%)
* Matt Entenza - 43 votes (24.57%)
* Paul Thissen - 35 votes (20%)
* John Marty - 15 votes (8.57%)
* Margaret Anderson Kelliher - 10 votes (5.71%)
* Undecided - 9 votes (5.14%)
* Steve Kelley - 8 votes (4.57%)
* Tom Bakk - 7 votes (4%)
* Mark Dayton - 4 votes (2.29%)
* Susan Gaertner - 1 votes (0.57%)
* Tom Rukavina - 0 votes (0%)
I will say that there was a rather large influx of account creations on the day of the poll, but hey -- getting your supporters engaged in the netroots community is not a bad thing.
This time, I'm asking who you think is actually going to win the endorsement at the DFL state convention in April.
So, have at it folks -- and please feel free to discuss the differences between these two questions at length in the comments.
And no, "No endorsement" is not an option, because...well, let's face it, it's not an option.
I just received a call from "Minnesota Research", where the person refused to give any other information other than she was calling from a "calling center", not even the state of the calling center. So after I asked who was paying for the information and a few other questions, she said "Thank you ma-am" and hung up. My gosh, how rude! She wants to ask me questions that my friends don't get the answers to and she does not even give her real name nor where she is calling from.
Today there was a school bus accident where children thankfully did not need to be hospitalized. However both hospitals, HCMC and Regions, are discussing how much to cut back on hospital emergency services from Tim Pawlenty's line item veto this week. So what kind of polls is Tim Pawlenty going to have if a child in a bus accident fails to get immediate emergency treatment?
Well actually the polls are already beginning to stack up against Tim Pawlenty despite the incredibly positive soft spin given to Tim Pawlenty by mainstream media.
Wait, wait, the polls do keep stacking up. An Star Tribune instant poll (not very good, but fun) has 44% support for the DFL position over 39% support for Pawlenty's position. Actually, since the third option supports some revenue raising as Alex points out in the comments, the percentage then exceeds 60%. However a real Star Tribune Poll had:
50% back both cutting the budget and raising revenue, the option that had the highest approval.
67% approved the "Tax the rich" strategy.
And soon Tim Pawlenty has to choose between Minnesota voters and presidential aspirations yet again because ABM poll shows that
59% believe that Norm Coleman should concede to Al Franken.
Wait, wait does Pawlenty even have the option of running for governor again, according to a SurveyUSA poll
57% said Governor Tim Pawlenty should not run for a third term.
A new poll from Grove Insight Research shows that Minnesota voters want Norm Coleman to concede and Gov. Pawlenty to sign the election certificate that will allow Al Franken to be seated -- finally -- in the U.S. Senate.
The poll, commissioned by Alliance for a Better Minnesota, showed that 59% of surveyed voters believe Coleman should concede to Al Franken, while just 34% believe he should keep his legal challenge going. Those numbers fit with the 61% who believe the recount and challenge process has been fair and impartial, against just 24% -- the true dead-end of the conservative rump -- who still question the process.
54% now believe that Franken won in November fair and square, while just 26% believe Coleman actually won. Among the remainder, 14% are unsure of who actually came out ahead and 5% believe the two candidates actually tied.
As for Governor Pawlenty, there are some potential landmines waiting for him should he decide that he, and not the state Supreme Court, is the Decider:
What ought to be of concern to Governor Pawlenty is the fallout should he refuse to sign a certificate of election. A clear majority (58%) believe that failure to certify Franken after the Minnesota Supreme Court rules raises at least "somewhat serious doubts" about Tim Pawlenty. This number grows to 64% when voters are told that the governor is legally required to sign an election certificate. In fact, even four in 10 (40%) self-identified Republicans say they would have "serious doubts" with their Republican Governor should he fail to sign an election certificate after the Minnesota Supreme Court rules.
And of course, there's this:
When given two opposing viewpoints, nearly half the electorate ascribe to the view that Pawlenty's motivations are not based on legitimate concerns about the process, but a desire to play partisan politics and help conservative Republicans in Congress. In fact, Minnesota voters are more likely to see the failure to certify as an emblem of Pawlenty's ambition than they are to believe that he prudently is waiting for the matter to be resolved in the federal courts.
Not that our dear Governor will care, but there it is.
Instead of pundits, I wanted a target group of smart savvy young political volunteers to rate the possible candidates for governor. I found 24 MYDFL volunteers to rate the candidates, at a MYDFL event where the candidates were speaking. Tom Bakk sent in a substitute. Chris Coleman came in for an unscheduled speech, which is why his name is not on the form.
New polling data came out today about lame duck Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty's anemic 2012 presidential campaign. Pawlenty's presidential hopes have never really gotten off the ground. He has continually polled in the lower single digits.
Lame duck Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty had 
