The campaign that builds excitement is going to win. I think MAK has the best technical direction. MAK people have picked up on entering many subcaucuses to build a perception of huge support. (Expect 50 subcaucuses at conventions this weekend, as other campaigns follow suit.) I think Rybak has the best spirit and political theater. I saw that Ryback group doing the wave yesterday in subcaucuses. Rybak supporters left energized and happy.
Approximately 300 more DFL state convention delegates were elected this weekend -- so where does the gubernatorial endorsement race stand?
First, standard caveats apply: 970 delegates have been elected so far, and we have conventions that add up to 913. Of those 913, we have results covering 843.5 -- this means our results are not complete. That being said, they are complete enough to get a good idea of where things stand -- just not an exact one.
With that said, on to the totals:
Gubernatorial pledged delegates Uncommitted: 369
R.T. Rybak: 143.5
MAK: 137.5
Paul Thissen: 58.5
John Marty: 49
Tom Rukavina: 41
Matt Entenza: 25
Tom Bakk: 20
The full spreadsheet is posted below. Highlights from the weekend:
R.T Rybak obviously had a very solid weekend, going from about three delegates down to six delegates up in our count. The spreadsheet bears this out -- although Margaret Anderson Kelliher kept up her solid gains and is still comfortably in the overall lead due to superdelegate endorsements, Rybak had a very good day in the west metro suburbs and in Olmstead County, where he appears to have picked up 8 (!) delegates.
Nevertheless, MAK is still in the lead overall, and will likely lead on the first ballot in April. If you factor in the superdelegate endorsements we already know of, and accept Team MAK's claims that fifty more are waiting in the wings, she already has about 17% of the first ballot racked up. Figure in at least a strong portion of the uncommitted delegates to date, and she's approaching 30% already, which will be tough for anyone to beat.
John Marty had a great weekend too, making significant gains in pledged delegates in places like Rice and Itasca counties. He stopped by SD42 briefly during subcaucusing, and we chatted for a minute, during which I expressed my sincere appreciation for his engagement with the MPP community.
Paul Thissen stalled out a little bit in the suburban conventions. His wonderful wife Karen spoke on his behalf at several events on Saturday, but there's a pretty big gap in his section of the spreadsheet in the recent conventions. He'll have support at the convention, but right now he's closer to the second tier than he is to the first.
Props to the members of the Bakk/Choi subcaucus. Certain nomination for Best Subcaucus Name of 2010.
Renew.mn is going to be a player one way or the other. Do they endorse MAK after the first ballot and nip the floor fight in the bud? Do they move toward R.T. Rybak or Paul Thissen and oppose the probable first-ballot leader? Only the ReNew.MN delegates know...and there are quite a few of them.
I'll have an update on the three competitive congressional endorsement races either later today or tomorrow morning. Here's the full spreadsheet -- as always, if you see discrepancies or districts where we're missing delegate totals, help us complete the puzzle. This little project has only gotten to where it is because of the efforts of the entire MPP community, and that's how it will continue to be right through the DFL state convention.
Since Reps. EriK Paulsen (R) and Tim Walz (D) raised the subject of lifting the moratorium on building new nuclear power plants in MN, I figured it was time to get statements from the DFL MN-GOV candidates on the subject. They all oppose lifting the moratorium except RT Rybak who didn't answer the question and doesn't want to rule it out.
Margaret Anderson-Kelliher - concerned about storage, MN should create clean energy jobs.
Mark Dayton - Lifting the moratorium would be an injustice placed upon future generations.
Matt Entenza - A centerpiece of his campaign has been green energy solutions.
John Marty - he wrote the moratorium bill, nuff said.
Tom Rukavina - for moratorium until we figure out national disposal situation.
RT Rybak - Maximize energy efficiency, conservation and renewable energy sources first, but doesn't want to take nuclear off the table. RT wants the moratorium.
Paul Thissen - MN should lead in green technologies.
As promised, we've gotten what appear to be accurate reports from Sunday's conventions, and also knocked a couple of previous conventions off the board (Blue Earth CU, Morrison CU, Lac Qui Parle CU). We've also corrected a 1-delegate discrepancy from SD60, and thanks are due to the eagle-eyed Marty supporter who caught it.
The updated totals:
Candidate
Pledged Delegates
Uncommitted
195
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
77.5
R.T. Rybak
72
Paul Thissen
47
Tom Rukavina
28
John Marty
25
Tom Bakk
13.5
Matt Entenza
4
As noted previously, Uncommitted is winning, although there are definitely "hidden" delegates (those actually supporting one candidate or another) in that big total. As also previously noted, Paul Thissen's total here is a bit inflated due to several counties where his are the only results so far -- although Morrison was one of those until we completed it last night.
Updated grid is below. We're now at 86% coverage -- hopefully we can cover about ten of the remaining fourteen percent by the next round of conventions this weekend.
This was a big weekend in the MN-GOV race. DFLers met at 28 conventions throughout the state. We're doing our utmost to pull in the most accurate information delegate counts that we can (Joe will have more up-to-date numbers pretty soon). The largest group of delegates by far are the uncommitted. Margaret Anderson-Kelliher leads RT Rybak by a few with Paul Thissen trailing in a distant third position. Of course, Margaret leads in superdelegates. So I'm writing to speculate about how all this might play out in Duluth at the end of April.
There is a wild card at play in all of this. The reNEW.MN campaign is getting delegates elected and will have some say in all of this. But what exactly?
RT should make the race closer as I expect he'll do better than Margaret in suburban and excurban areas, i.e., MN-02, MN-03 and MN-06.
Plus, I will consider what Tom Rukavina, John Marty and Paul Thissen might do with their blocks of delegates. Or will they have enough to do anything?
Wild Weekend was...well, wild. More than 500 of 1200 eventual delegates have now been selected -- and we're tracking 77% (415) of those delegates right here.
Of those 415 we now have tracked, here are the totals:
Candidate
Pledged Delegates
Uncommitted
176
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
71.5
R.T. Rybak
65.5
Paul Thissen
43.5
Tom Rukavina
26
John Marty
22
Tom Bakk
7.5
Matt Entenza
2
A few general notes about these totals:
In the screenshot below, you'll see where the discrepancies are -- we did extremely well this weekend tracking the Senate District conventions, but we're still missing totals from several County Unit conventions -- if you were at one or know someone who was and can get us accurate totals, let us know
I know for a fact we're missing a few Entenza delegates, but I simply have not been able to get first-hand reports from those conventions (Nobles County, in particular). So his totals are a tad low.
Similarly, because the reports I got from several of last weekend's conventions were from a Thissen supporter (whom I have no reason to believe isn't being accurate with Thissen's totals), his strong third-place showing right now is likely a bit inflated, as we're missing the rest of the delegates from those conventions. HOWEVER, it is clear that Thissen is doing quite well in rural delegate elections given his metro base (witness his strong performance in his home district of SD63).
The other item of note now that we have considerable totals under our belts is the ReNew.mn factor. Technically, the basic "Uncommitted/Renew.mn" subcaucus is uncommitted in the gubernatorial race. In the purest sense that's true; in reality those delegates (at least 24 of them so far) are probably only going to vote for Rybak, Paul Thissen, or MAK -- in that order -- when push comes to shove in Duluth. Also witness that the only named subcaucuses that include ReNew.mn's name are for those three candidates.
It's not against any rules, but we've heard that a few people here and there have been a bit miffed at the organization calling its delegates "uncommitted." On the other hand, they're an advocacy group, and they're doing a good job of pushing their values through the endorsement process. YMMV, as it's said.
A future post will focus on the congressional campaign breakouts -- some interesting items in there as well.
Here's that full spreadsheet -- discrepancies are color-coded at the bottom. A big thanks to the MPP community for helping make this happen -- we're all looking forward to next week's conventions for more of the same!
A highly placed source informs me that yesterday's SD-05 DFL Convention in the heart of the Iron Range was a blowout. State Rep. Tom Rukavina took 16 delegates to fellow Iron Ranger Tom Bakk's mere 3. Four delegates were elected as uncommitted.
While Rukavina's win is not surprising, this is a blow to Bakk who needed to do a little better here. Next week's remaining conventions will be very telling. Check out more analysis at my blog, MinnesotaBrown.com.
UPDATE: Reports are swirling on the Range that Rukavina and Bakk will unite forces before the state convention based on who has the most support. That would make this next weekend Bakk's best chance to score remaining Range and Duluth delegates. Stay tuned.
Six DFL candidates participated in the DFL gubernatorial debate at Augsburg College last night (February 16, 2010). They were R. T. Rybak, Tom Rukavina, Paul Thissen, Mark Dayton, John Marty and Tom Bakk. The event was sponsored by Sabo Center and Augsburg Political Science Department.
Since I never like to go home first after work, I went straight to Augsburg . I arrived around 4:30. I found the building and the auditorium, then went next door to the Student Center cafeteria and had a very light dinner, which I couldn't finish because I've lost my appetite in the past couple of months.
I went back to the Music Hall, where the debate was taking place. It was still early, so I wandered down the hallway and found a Medieval Event going on in the chapel. How I wanted to go there instead of to the debate. If you've seen one gubernatorial candidate forum, you've seen them all. It's not often that a medieval event takes place, though. I have a double major from the University of Minnesota in English literature and history. My history emphasis was Tudor/Stuart England as well as Renaissance and Medieval History. I love the Renaissance Festival in Shakopee and try to go there every year.
Duty called, and back I went down the hallway to the auditorium. It was still early, so I chatted for awhile with the moderator of the gubernatorial debate. This was Jay Benanav, Augsburg 's director of government relations. He is a former member of the St. Paul City Council. I had a very interesting conversation with him for about twenty minutes.
"The next governor will set the tone for issues ranging from health care to the environment to taxes to economic development," said Benanav. "All of these issues will impact the job market in the state and would directly impact the ability to get a job in Minnesota after graduation."
By now people were beginning to arrive, including campaign staffers. Benanav went off to prepare for his duties of the evening. Frank Brown, my friend from TakeAction MN and Second Chance Coalition, walked in the door and came over to say hi to me. It was good to see him again.
Rybak has a lot of excellent staffers. They're always right on top of it as they try to get new supporters. They tried to get me, but Brian II from Dayton's campaign put a stop to that. Orrie tried once again to get me to support Rukavina. Since I'm going to be a delegate at the SD53 convention this Saturday, and since my alleged candidate is not part of the endorsement process by choice, Orrie figured I may as well caucus for Rukavina. I really ought to caucus for reNEW MN. (Coincidentally, I just got off the phone with Elizabeth from TakeAction.) Tom Rukavina caught me in the aisle of the auditorium and pressed one of his campaign buttons into my hand and smiled so engagingly. How come Dayton never does that? Oh well, he gives hugs. I can go a long time (at least 24 hours) on a good hug. Hugs are energizing.
Kudos to Paul Thissen, Tom Rukavina and Mark Dayton for coming up to me before the debate and asking how I am. They all know I'm fighting liver disease. It's nice of them to remember to inquire after my health. I had a chance to talk to Paul Thissen for several minutes regarding Pawlenty's horrible budget news. Paul is always ready to listen and to respond in a meaningful way. When you talk to him, you know he's really listening. He's focused on you and not on the next voter or the next person who might be walking in the door. He should give lessons on that to all the other candidates.
Frank Brown and I sat in front of the auditorium, in the second row, so we could see the candidates up close and hear what they said. The forum began promptly at 7:00. A few prepared questions focusing on education issues and policy were asked of the candidates. At the end of the prepared questions and the candidates' answers, the audience was invited to ask questions.
I met Frank J. Brown a couple of months ago when I was wandering the skyway on my lunch hour. I saw a nifty little art gallery so I went in to see if I could convince anyone to vote for Mark Dayton for governor. I also like art galleries for the sake of the art.
The artist who owns the gallery is Frank J. Brown. He's very friendly and knowledgeable about a variety of subjects, particularly political topics that have to do with diversity, culture and discrimination. He even spoke before the legislature back in 2008 to give his views on the Minnesota Department of Human Rights. If you want to know anything at all about job discrimination in St. Paul, go talk to Frank.
Frank knows alot about what's going on in the world, particularly in the Twin Cities. I asked him which gubernatorial candidate he's going to vote for. He told me he's trying to decide between Dayton and Rybak. He's worked with Rybak and likes him very much. He also likes Dayton and was always impressed by him for standing up for the Black Panthers in their hour of need. (I did not previously know that, but it's another example of Dayton doing what's morally and ethically right no matter what popular opinion is.)
Frank told me that he would be glad to talk to any of the candidates. I told two DFL gubernatorial candidates about him and where to find him, but neither candidate called Frank or went to see him. Wouldn't you think they would care about the votes of all the people who live in downtown St. Paul? And all the artists who both live and work there? Frank knows an incredible number of people. I really wish the candidates would take me seriously when I tell them something. I wouldn't waste their time with garbage. I know why I'm not taken seriously, but that's best left to another blog on another day.
Another thing that Frank previously did was work on a bill with Paul Wellstone. Frank was always very impressed with Wellstone. I daresay that Wellstone was quite taken with Frank Brown, as well.
(Now I don't know if a person who still thinks the Vikings are going to win can be trusted with political advice. However, I have been pondering the advantages of Tom Rukavina as a running mate, who manages to make even non-supporters laugh and enjoy his company. - promoted by Grace Kelly)
As I bide time before the start of the Super Bowl I give you this NFL metaphor for the Minnesota DFL gubernatorial candidates as the county conventions and April state convention approach. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, the winner of the Feb. 2 straw vote, and House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, a very close second in the straw vote, control their own destinies. The only way one of these two are not the DFL endorsed candidate is if both of them flame out at the local conventions or destroy one another. We live in Minnesota, home of the Vikings, and we're talking about Democrats, which means that both of these things are possible.
So Rybak and Kelliher are the front runners. Every other candidate still has a chance but, in football commentator vernacular, they need some help. Matt Entenza has the ability to increase his payroll and marketing to help himself. John Marty, Tom Rukavina and Paul Thissen all need external help to some degree; Tom Bakk and Susan Gaertner need it to a larger degree. In most cases, this means that each of these candidates needs one or more specific other candidates to falter and drop before the first ballot of the state convention. Meantime, Mark Dayton, who's waiting for the primary, represents the metaphorical New Orleans Saints in the NFC championship game. The endorsed candidate could beat him. No really, they could. (Run it, Favre. RUN IT!) Don't read too much into the direct football to candidate parallels. I'm just imagining the "what ifs" for the Vikings this year.
Who will Minnesota's next governor be? We'll assume and hope that it will be a DFLer. There are a lot of candidates. Which one should we vote for? How do voters choose?
Many voters choose a name on the ballot at random. We've all done this at some point over the years, especially when we see a list of judges or county attorneys on the ballot. Most people have no idea who these candidates are. Some voters choose a name that sounds good to them or is vaguely familiar. Others may choose by gender. Some will choose a female just for the sake of having more females in office.
Others choose a name that they recognize. The more recognizable the candidate's name is, the better the chances of getting elected. In this year's gubernatorial race, the two top candidates for name recognition, at least so far, are Mark Dayton and R. T. Rybak.
Some voters actually research the candidates' stand on various issues. Others abide by the party's endorsement or by the endorsement of their union or other organization. Others will vote for their legislator who happens to be running for governor.
Many others vote on personalities. Jesse Ventura had a personality that was unforgettable. Skip Humphrey didn't. Norm Coleman might have had but his mudslinging alienated voters.
Finally, voters vote for a candidate they resonate with. They want a candidate they have something in common with. If they think a particular candidate is nothing at all like them, they probably won't vote for that person.
So ... many of us went to our DFL caucus last night. Many of because we want a DFLer to be our next Governor. So what? Well there are many implications going forward in the Minnesota Governor's race (MN-GOV), mainly for the RT Rybak and Margaret Anderson-Kelliher campaigns -- the race is wide open for them to win or lose. All campaigns will be working hard to get some delegates elected from the upcoming Senate District conventions.
Will John Marty, Paul Thissen and Tom Rukavina be able to get enough delegates together to get the 7-9% that their straw poll results indicate they might pull?
Obviously, the Rybak and MAK campaigns will more than likely go into the state conventions with 20% to maybe even 25% of the delegates committed to them. But what about the rest?
Any delegates Tom Bakk, Matt Entenza, Susan Gaertner and Steve Kelley elect will have choices after their candidates are dropped on the first ballot.
Plenty of talk coming from candidates after last night's precinct caucuses...first up, Tom Rukavina:
"I'm humbled and energized by last night's results," said Rukavina. "This goes to show that a little money and a big, refreshingly honest message has made me a contender at the DFL convention."
The campaign also secured at least three of the very first elected delegates to the state convention, by sweeping yesterday's Grant County convention. "The endorsement is really about gaining the support of state convention delegates," said Rukavina. "I'm off to a great start."
"When I entered this race last November, few people gave me a chance. Last night, we exceeded expectations, and I'm just getting going."
And Paul Thissen:
"I am pleased with our finish in last night's straw poll. I am grateful for the tremendous support I received from DFL caucus attendees across Minnesota and pleased that my message of a fresh vision and new ideas is reaching voters in every corner of the state. Many potential DFL Delegates remain undecided and continue to examine the candidates' record and vision as we proceed with this endorsement process. The race remains wide-open and I look forward to running full steam ahead in the upcoming weeks and sharing my vision for a better Minnesota."
And Tom Bakk:
My campaign has continued to build momentum throughout the last year. We have worked hard to gain the support of Minnesotans across the state and from Hallock to Houston County we are seeing the results. I have been endorsed by the North Central States Regional Council of Carpenters, Duluth Building and Construction Trades Council, and the powerhouse Minnesota Building and Construction Trades Council. I am proud to have the support of 18 superdelegates and raised money to end the year with the most cash on hand of any candidate.
The straw poll results reinforced what we have known for months. There will be a number of strong candidates vying for the DFL endorsement at the convention in April.
We will continue to travel the state and talk to delegates to get out the message that I am the strongest candidate on jobs and the economy, I am a proven leader, and I am the candidate best suited to win the General Election in November.
I'm a member of TakeAction Minnesota. This is a grassroots organization that believes in progressive politics. One of our projects is the reNEW Minnesota Campaign. On January 31 we will choose three DFL candidates who we think meet our vision.
See who my choices are after the break.
Here's what we believe.
Our Future Together: A Vision for a reNEWed Minnesota
We have inherited so much good from the people who came before us and we will continue building on that foundation. We also inherit a legacy and ongoing practice of injustice that must be addressed. The decisions we make today will dictate the quality of our lives together and those of generations to come. We create the future for our children's children.
We make these decisions at a crossroads. Minnesota has a proud tradition of community, of helping one another, and of understanding that "we all do better when we all do better." But in the last 20 years, a damaging ideology has gained increasing power in Minnesota government. It has strained our families, divided our neighborhoods, and created needless suffering throughout our state. The future on this path promises further isolation, deprivation and pain.
The ideology we reject:
We reject the ideology of "you're on your own" - the idea that we are better off when competing against each other for our individual lot in life.
We reject the ideology that says markets can solve all problems and that our government can solve none.
We reject the ideology that denies the ongoing impacts of racism in our society.
We reject the politics of "except" - a politics that says some people are not deserving of full participation in our society.
We reject the idea that people should get as much as they can for themselves with no thought to their neighbor.
These Are The Beliefs We Are United On.
This is the Minnesota We Want To Live In.
WE WANT TO LIVE IN a Minnesota Where We Are All In This Together.
We recognize that we do not live in isolation. We are an interconnected and interdependent people. From our family farms and rural towns to our suburbs and cities, we rise together or fall together as a state, not as individuals. We believe community is vital to rebuilding and revitalizing our state. Our problems are experienced together. Our solutions must be created together.
WE WANT TO LIVE IN a Minnesota Where We Make Decisions Now to Improve the Lives of Our Children's Children.
We believe our land, natural resources and social values were passed on to us and are the legacy we leave for future Minnesotans. We must leave a better world for those who come after us.
WE WANT TO LIVE IN a Minnesota Where the Inherent Worth and Dignity of Every Person Is Recognized Without Exception.
We all benefit when every person has the opportunity to fully participate in every part of our society: from marrying the person they love in a civil ceremony, to participating in our democratic decision making structures. We believe we all have a responsibility to contribute our love, talents, energy and creativity with our family, friends and community without exception.
WE WANT TO LIVE IN a Minnesota Where We Embrace a Politics of Inclusion and Justice for All.
Racism is experienced every day in Minnesota through unequal access to material and social resources. We believe every child born and every newly arrived resident should benefit equally from our quality of life and have the power to make our state better. We believe in a Minnesota where the values, traditions and contributions of Native Americans, Hmong, African Americans, Somalis, Latinos and all immigrants and people of color are valued and respected. We commit to eradicate racism in our society today and to undo the continued impacts of past racism.
WE WANT TO LIVE IN a Minnesota Where There Is A Fair, Equitable Economy That Benefits Everyone.
Minnesota is a wealthy state financially and in our material, social, and natural capital. We believe that workers should be able to meet their basic needs through the wages they earn. We are also responsible for those unable to work, for we are truly free only when economic insecurity and social anxiety are alleviated for all of us and each of us can live our lives to our fullest potential. Alone, each of us is vulnerable. Together we bring boundless creativity and passion. And, if we use them well, we have abundant material resources to tackle the challenges we face as a society.
The Role of Our Elected Leaders in reNEWing Minnesota
We believe that the point of winning elections is to enact positive change in the lives of Minnesotans. We need bold visionary leaders whose mission is to advance our shared values.
We need a governor who will not govern alone. We need a governor who will work with a powerful economic, social, racial justice movement to implement our shared vision. We need a governor who will strengthen our collective democratic institutions - our government institutions as well as our labor and community organizations. We must also change how we act in our relationships with elected officials and among ourselves. Our next governor must cogovern with us, the people of Minnesota.
Conclusion:
The path toward a more just society and a more inclusive and vibrant Minnesota is ahead of us. One hundred years from now, our children's children will live their lives based on the decisions we make as a state now. We commit ourselves to reNEWing Minnesota so that we will all rise together. The choice is ours. We have the power.
There have been lots of fundraising numbers flying around in the past couple of weeks as gubernatorial candidates look to spin their prowess on the donor circuit into positive press and grassroots support. But can we compare their numbers on an apples-to-apples basis?
Sure. Here's how (and a big thanks goes to Robin Marty for helping me assemble these numbers).
This might be a little difficult to read, so let's break it down: the columns you'll want to watch closely are all the way to the right, in Dollars Per Month and Dollars Per Donor.
The idea here is that candidates started raising money at different times from different people, so we want to get an idea of how quickly they're raising it and from whom -- a higher Dollars Per Donor figure means the candidate is hitting up fewer donors for higher amounts, and a lower figure means the campaign can go back to those same donors repeatedly for more donations.
Dollars Per Month can tell us how quickly a candidate taps out their fundraising "base" -- if the candidate has only been in the race for a few months but has raised a bunch of money, there's a decent chance this rate will fall off quickly as they get into tougher-to-get dollars. The same thing happened to Paul Thissen after he pulled in "low-hanging fruit" in 2008.
So with Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Matt Entenza, and Paul Thissen all bunched up around $182-$184 per donor, we don't know a whole lot about their takes other than that MAK has raised money faster than the other two (by virtue of being an official candidate for less time than the others. Steve Kelley -- whose totals here are accurate, as confirmed by his campaign this week, btw -- has a lower dollars-per-donor figure, so on average he can hit those same donors up for more money this year than the others can. Ditto Tom Rukavina.
On the GOP side, it's tough to do any kind of comparison, since at last check we still don't know how many individual donors Tom Emmer had in 2009.
Update: R.T. Rybak just reported a total fundraising take of $278,000 since November of last year -- breaking down the numbers as accurately as possible leaves Rybak with $92,667/month for his gubernatorial committee, and a dollars-per-donor figure of $200. Rybak is in a unique position in that he spent all of last year campaigning for reelection, so he had a custom-build fundraising call list waiting for him last November. Rybak reported having $25,000 cash-on-hand at the end of 2009 -- but a big fundraising push at the beginning of this year as well. His fundraising came from a total of 691 donors.
Metro-vs-Greater Minnesota comparisons would be quite interesting for Rybak.
