The campaign that builds excitement is going to win. I think MAK has the best technical direction. MAK people have picked up on entering many subcaucuses to build a perception of huge support. (Expect 50 subcaucuses at conventions this weekend, as other campaigns follow suit.) I think Rybak has the best spirit and political theater. I saw that Ryback group doing the wave yesterday in subcaucuses. Rybak supporters left energized and happy.
Approximately 300 more DFL state convention delegates were elected this weekend -- so where does the gubernatorial endorsement race stand?
First, standard caveats apply: 970 delegates have been elected so far, and we have conventions that add up to 913. Of those 913, we have results covering 843.5 -- this means our results are not complete. That being said, they are complete enough to get a good idea of where things stand -- just not an exact one.
With that said, on to the totals:
Gubernatorial pledged delegates Uncommitted: 369
R.T. Rybak: 143.5
MAK: 137.5
Paul Thissen: 58.5
John Marty: 49
Tom Rukavina: 41
Matt Entenza: 25
Tom Bakk: 20
The full spreadsheet is posted below. Highlights from the weekend:
R.T Rybak obviously had a very solid weekend, going from about three delegates down to six delegates up in our count. The spreadsheet bears this out -- although Margaret Anderson Kelliher kept up her solid gains and is still comfortably in the overall lead due to superdelegate endorsements, Rybak had a very good day in the west metro suburbs and in Olmstead County, where he appears to have picked up 8 (!) delegates.
Nevertheless, MAK is still in the lead overall, and will likely lead on the first ballot in April. If you factor in the superdelegate endorsements we already know of, and accept Team MAK's claims that fifty more are waiting in the wings, she already has about 17% of the first ballot racked up. Figure in at least a strong portion of the uncommitted delegates to date, and she's approaching 30% already, which will be tough for anyone to beat.
John Marty had a great weekend too, making significant gains in pledged delegates in places like Rice and Itasca counties. He stopped by SD42 briefly during subcaucusing, and we chatted for a minute, during which I expressed my sincere appreciation for his engagement with the MPP community.
Paul Thissen stalled out a little bit in the suburban conventions. His wonderful wife Karen spoke on his behalf at several events on Saturday, but there's a pretty big gap in his section of the spreadsheet in the recent conventions. He'll have support at the convention, but right now he's closer to the second tier than he is to the first.
Props to the members of the Bakk/Choi subcaucus. Certain nomination for Best Subcaucus Name of 2010.
Renew.mn is going to be a player one way or the other. Do they endorse MAK after the first ballot and nip the floor fight in the bud? Do they move toward R.T. Rybak or Paul Thissen and oppose the probable first-ballot leader? Only the ReNew.MN delegates know...and there are quite a few of them.
I'll have an update on the three competitive congressional endorsement races either later today or tomorrow morning. Here's the full spreadsheet -- as always, if you see discrepancies or districts where we're missing delegate totals, help us complete the puzzle. This little project has only gotten to where it is because of the efforts of the entire MPP community, and that's how it will continue to be right through the DFL state convention.
As promised, we've gotten what appear to be accurate reports from Sunday's conventions, and also knocked a couple of previous conventions off the board (Blue Earth CU, Morrison CU, Lac Qui Parle CU). We've also corrected a 1-delegate discrepancy from SD60, and thanks are due to the eagle-eyed Marty supporter who caught it.
The updated totals:
Candidate
Pledged Delegates
Uncommitted
195
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
77.5
R.T. Rybak
72
Paul Thissen
47
Tom Rukavina
28
John Marty
25
Tom Bakk
13.5
Matt Entenza
4
As noted previously, Uncommitted is winning, although there are definitely "hidden" delegates (those actually supporting one candidate or another) in that big total. As also previously noted, Paul Thissen's total here is a bit inflated due to several counties where his are the only results so far -- although Morrison was one of those until we completed it last night.
Updated grid is below. We're now at 86% coverage -- hopefully we can cover about ten of the remaining fourteen percent by the next round of conventions this weekend.
Wild Weekend was...well, wild. More than 500 of 1200 eventual delegates have now been selected -- and we're tracking 77% (415) of those delegates right here.
Of those 415 we now have tracked, here are the totals:
Candidate
Pledged Delegates
Uncommitted
176
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
71.5
R.T. Rybak
65.5
Paul Thissen
43.5
Tom Rukavina
26
John Marty
22
Tom Bakk
7.5
Matt Entenza
2
A few general notes about these totals:
In the screenshot below, you'll see where the discrepancies are -- we did extremely well this weekend tracking the Senate District conventions, but we're still missing totals from several County Unit conventions -- if you were at one or know someone who was and can get us accurate totals, let us know
I know for a fact we're missing a few Entenza delegates, but I simply have not been able to get first-hand reports from those conventions (Nobles County, in particular). So his totals are a tad low.
Similarly, because the reports I got from several of last weekend's conventions were from a Thissen supporter (whom I have no reason to believe isn't being accurate with Thissen's totals), his strong third-place showing right now is likely a bit inflated, as we're missing the rest of the delegates from those conventions. HOWEVER, it is clear that Thissen is doing quite well in rural delegate elections given his metro base (witness his strong performance in his home district of SD63).
The other item of note now that we have considerable totals under our belts is the ReNew.mn factor. Technically, the basic "Uncommitted/Renew.mn" subcaucus is uncommitted in the gubernatorial race. In the purest sense that's true; in reality those delegates (at least 24 of them so far) are probably only going to vote for Rybak, Paul Thissen, or MAK -- in that order -- when push comes to shove in Duluth. Also witness that the only named subcaucuses that include ReNew.mn's name are for those three candidates.
It's not against any rules, but we've heard that a few people here and there have been a bit miffed at the organization calling its delegates "uncommitted." On the other hand, they're an advocacy group, and they're doing a good job of pushing their values through the endorsement process. YMMV, as it's said.
A future post will focus on the congressional campaign breakouts -- some interesting items in there as well.
Here's that full spreadsheet -- discrepancies are color-coded at the bottom. A big thanks to the MPP community for helping make this happen -- we're all looking forward to next week's conventions for more of the same!
A highly placed source informs me that yesterday's SD-05 DFL Convention in the heart of the Iron Range was a blowout. State Rep. Tom Rukavina took 16 delegates to fellow Iron Ranger Tom Bakk's mere 3. Four delegates were elected as uncommitted.
While Rukavina's win is not surprising, this is a blow to Bakk who needed to do a little better here. Next week's remaining conventions will be very telling. Check out more analysis at my blog, MinnesotaBrown.com.
UPDATE: Reports are swirling on the Range that Rukavina and Bakk will unite forces before the state convention based on who has the most support. That would make this next weekend Bakk's best chance to score remaining Range and Duluth delegates. Stay tuned.
Six DFL candidates participated in the DFL gubernatorial debate at Augsburg College last night (February 16, 2010). They were R. T. Rybak, Tom Rukavina, Paul Thissen, Mark Dayton, John Marty and Tom Bakk. The event was sponsored by Sabo Center and Augsburg Political Science Department.
Since I never like to go home first after work, I went straight to Augsburg . I arrived around 4:30. I found the building and the auditorium, then went next door to the Student Center cafeteria and had a very light dinner, which I couldn't finish because I've lost my appetite in the past couple of months.
I went back to the Music Hall, where the debate was taking place. It was still early, so I wandered down the hallway and found a Medieval Event going on in the chapel. How I wanted to go there instead of to the debate. If you've seen one gubernatorial candidate forum, you've seen them all. It's not often that a medieval event takes place, though. I have a double major from the University of Minnesota in English literature and history. My history emphasis was Tudor/Stuart England as well as Renaissance and Medieval History. I love the Renaissance Festival in Shakopee and try to go there every year.
Duty called, and back I went down the hallway to the auditorium. It was still early, so I chatted for awhile with the moderator of the gubernatorial debate. This was Jay Benanav, Augsburg 's director of government relations. He is a former member of the St. Paul City Council. I had a very interesting conversation with him for about twenty minutes.
"The next governor will set the tone for issues ranging from health care to the environment to taxes to economic development," said Benanav. "All of these issues will impact the job market in the state and would directly impact the ability to get a job in Minnesota after graduation."
By now people were beginning to arrive, including campaign staffers. Benanav went off to prepare for his duties of the evening. Frank Brown, my friend from TakeAction MN and Second Chance Coalition, walked in the door and came over to say hi to me. It was good to see him again.
Rybak has a lot of excellent staffers. They're always right on top of it as they try to get new supporters. They tried to get me, but Brian II from Dayton's campaign put a stop to that. Orrie tried once again to get me to support Rukavina. Since I'm going to be a delegate at the SD53 convention this Saturday, and since my alleged candidate is not part of the endorsement process by choice, Orrie figured I may as well caucus for Rukavina. I really ought to caucus for reNEW MN. (Coincidentally, I just got off the phone with Elizabeth from TakeAction.) Tom Rukavina caught me in the aisle of the auditorium and pressed one of his campaign buttons into my hand and smiled so engagingly. How come Dayton never does that? Oh well, he gives hugs. I can go a long time (at least 24 hours) on a good hug. Hugs are energizing.
Kudos to Paul Thissen, Tom Rukavina and Mark Dayton for coming up to me before the debate and asking how I am. They all know I'm fighting liver disease. It's nice of them to remember to inquire after my health. I had a chance to talk to Paul Thissen for several minutes regarding Pawlenty's horrible budget news. Paul is always ready to listen and to respond in a meaningful way. When you talk to him, you know he's really listening. He's focused on you and not on the next voter or the next person who might be walking in the door. He should give lessons on that to all the other candidates.
Frank Brown and I sat in front of the auditorium, in the second row, so we could see the candidates up close and hear what they said. The forum began promptly at 7:00. A few prepared questions focusing on education issues and policy were asked of the candidates. At the end of the prepared questions and the candidates' answers, the audience was invited to ask questions.
(Now I don't know if a person who still thinks the Vikings are going to win can be trusted with political advice. However, I have been pondering the advantages of Tom Rukavina as a running mate, who manages to make even non-supporters laugh and enjoy his company. - promoted by Grace Kelly)
As I bide time before the start of the Super Bowl I give you this NFL metaphor for the Minnesota DFL gubernatorial candidates as the county conventions and April state convention approach. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, the winner of the Feb. 2 straw vote, and House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, a very close second in the straw vote, control their own destinies. The only way one of these two are not the DFL endorsed candidate is if both of them flame out at the local conventions or destroy one another. We live in Minnesota, home of the Vikings, and we're talking about Democrats, which means that both of these things are possible.
So Rybak and Kelliher are the front runners. Every other candidate still has a chance but, in football commentator vernacular, they need some help. Matt Entenza has the ability to increase his payroll and marketing to help himself. John Marty, Tom Rukavina and Paul Thissen all need external help to some degree; Tom Bakk and Susan Gaertner need it to a larger degree. In most cases, this means that each of these candidates needs one or more specific other candidates to falter and drop before the first ballot of the state convention. Meantime, Mark Dayton, who's waiting for the primary, represents the metaphorical New Orleans Saints in the NFC championship game. The endorsed candidate could beat him. No really, they could. (Run it, Favre. RUN IT!) Don't read too much into the direct football to candidate parallels. I'm just imagining the "what ifs" for the Vikings this year.
Who will Minnesota's next governor be? We'll assume and hope that it will be a DFLer. There are a lot of candidates. Which one should we vote for? How do voters choose?
Many voters choose a name on the ballot at random. We've all done this at some point over the years, especially when we see a list of judges or county attorneys on the ballot. Most people have no idea who these candidates are. Some voters choose a name that sounds good to them or is vaguely familiar. Others may choose by gender. Some will choose a female just for the sake of having more females in office.
Others choose a name that they recognize. The more recognizable the candidate's name is, the better the chances of getting elected. In this year's gubernatorial race, the two top candidates for name recognition, at least so far, are Mark Dayton and R. T. Rybak.
Some voters actually research the candidates' stand on various issues. Others abide by the party's endorsement or by the endorsement of their union or other organization. Others will vote for their legislator who happens to be running for governor.
Many others vote on personalities. Jesse Ventura had a personality that was unforgettable. Skip Humphrey didn't. Norm Coleman might have had but his mudslinging alienated voters.
Finally, voters vote for a candidate they resonate with. They want a candidate they have something in common with. If they think a particular candidate is nothing at all like them, they probably won't vote for that person.
So ... many of us went to our DFL caucus last night. Many of because we want a DFLer to be our next Governor. So what? Well there are many implications going forward in the Minnesota Governor's race (MN-GOV), mainly for the RT Rybak and Margaret Anderson-Kelliher campaigns -- the race is wide open for them to win or lose. All campaigns will be working hard to get some delegates elected from the upcoming Senate District conventions.
Will John Marty, Paul Thissen and Tom Rukavina be able to get enough delegates together to get the 7-9% that their straw poll results indicate they might pull?
Obviously, the Rybak and MAK campaigns will more than likely go into the state conventions with 20% to maybe even 25% of the delegates committed to them. But what about the rest?
Any delegates Tom Bakk, Matt Entenza, Susan Gaertner and Steve Kelley elect will have choices after their candidates are dropped on the first ballot.
There have been lots of fundraising numbers flying around in the past couple of weeks as gubernatorial candidates look to spin their prowess on the donor circuit into positive press and grassroots support. But can we compare their numbers on an apples-to-apples basis?
Sure. Here's how (and a big thanks goes to Robin Marty for helping me assemble these numbers).
This might be a little difficult to read, so let's break it down: the columns you'll want to watch closely are all the way to the right, in Dollars Per Month and Dollars Per Donor.
The idea here is that candidates started raising money at different times from different people, so we want to get an idea of how quickly they're raising it and from whom -- a higher Dollars Per Donor figure means the candidate is hitting up fewer donors for higher amounts, and a lower figure means the campaign can go back to those same donors repeatedly for more donations.
Dollars Per Month can tell us how quickly a candidate taps out their fundraising "base" -- if the candidate has only been in the race for a few months but has raised a bunch of money, there's a decent chance this rate will fall off quickly as they get into tougher-to-get dollars. The same thing happened to Paul Thissen after he pulled in "low-hanging fruit" in 2008.
So with Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Matt Entenza, and Paul Thissen all bunched up around $182-$184 per donor, we don't know a whole lot about their takes other than that MAK has raised money faster than the other two (by virtue of being an official candidate for less time than the others. Steve Kelley -- whose totals here are accurate, as confirmed by his campaign this week, btw -- has a lower dollars-per-donor figure, so on average he can hit those same donors up for more money this year than the others can. Ditto Tom Rukavina.
On the GOP side, it's tough to do any kind of comparison, since at last check we still don't know how many individual donors Tom Emmer had in 2009.
Update: R.T. Rybak just reported a total fundraising take of $278,000 since November of last year -- breaking down the numbers as accurately as possible leaves Rybak with $92,667/month for his gubernatorial committee, and a dollars-per-donor figure of $200. Rybak is in a unique position in that he spent all of last year campaigning for reelection, so he had a custom-build fundraising call list waiting for him last November. Rybak reported having $25,000 cash-on-hand at the end of 2009 -- but a big fundraising push at the beginning of this year as well. His fundraising came from a total of 691 donors.
Metro-vs-Greater Minnesota comparisons would be quite interesting for Rybak.
Went to a garden party; everyone was there. Thomas brought his old schoolmate; there were politics in the air.
Actually, it wasn't really a garden party. After all, this is January in Minnesota. It was a legislative reception at Infinite Campus in Blaine. All the legislators and candidates were invited. Pawlenty was invited, too, but he was probably off galavanting in some other state as usual. Senators Klobachar and Franken were invited but they couldn't make it either.
Thomas Snell, my old schoolmate from White Bear High School, class of 1968, invited me. I met up with him several months ago on Facebook. Everyone is on Facebook. Their mothers, too. Tom is the executive director for Metro North Chamber of Commerce. He's a pretty important guy, but he's the same old Tom who used to be in debate and speech back in the old days. He even used to be a Toastmaster!
Lots of legislators were there. Most, but not all, were Republicans. I felt like the Frog Princess at a kangaroo conference until Sandy Rummel and Paul Gardner showed up. Tom Bakk arrived shortly thereafter. They thought that maybe John Marty and Paul Thissen would attend, but there was no sign of them.
All the legislators and gubernatorial candidates were allowed a couple of minutes to speak. There sure are a lot of political people who use a lot of crutch words. I'd like to invite them all to a Toastmasters meeting. I gave out my business cards with the website. It seemed more professional than giving out my blogger business cards.
I paid special attention to what Marty Seifert and Bill Haas had to say, since they are the competition for our candidates. Of the two, Seifert is the better speaker. He's smooth. He's an excellent communicator. He's really a nice guy, too. I had my picture taken with him by a staffer who told me that he was going to put it on Seifert's website. One legislator said to me, "You really get around, don't you?" I explained to him about my empty nest syndrome and my whiny cat.
Seifert said, "See? Republicans can be nice." Well sure they can. It kind of wrecked up the effect, though, when he gave his brief speech. He's GOP through and through. But still nice. Just not what we want or need for governor. He talked about needing less government, not more. He basically, in so many words, blamed the Democrats for the mess our state is in. Hey, wait a minute! We haven't had a Democrat administration in twenty years, so you really can't blame us. You might want to try looking in a mirror.
My mantra for the evening was, "I attended Mark Dayton's campaign kickoff this morning at the state capital." The most frequent response I got was, "I heard the media hounded him" and "I heard he would only answer three questions from the media." I responded that he had to be in Duluth in a couple of hours so of course he didn't have time for a lengthy press conference. Then they understood it. "Ahhh," they murmured comprehensively.
I had a chance to talk to Mary T, who owns group homes in Anoka County and Ramsey County. I used to work at one of those homes. Lilac House in Shoreview. Sadly, she informed me that one of the residents I cared for had died. The other three are still there. I learned a lot during my time in that position. It was good to see Mary T.
It was interesting to meet a lot of legislators that I hadn't met before, such as Jerry Newton, Ray Vandeveer and Michael Jungbauer. Betty Folliard was there. I like her. She's a community representative for Keith Ellison.
It was a productive day for this blogger. I think I'll go peek at Seifert's website now to see if my picture is really there. If it is, I swear it doesn't mean a thing.
Last night I attended the second set of interview screenings of reNEW Minnesota. The gubernatorial candidates we screened included Tom Bakk, John Marty, Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Steve Kelley. The format was the same as last time. Candidates came into the room (at the Rondo Community Outreach Library on Dale Street in St. Paul) one at a time. Various members took turns asking them questions on aspects of the reNEW Minnesota vision for Minnesota. Here's the paraphrased answers of each candidate, along with the questions they were asked.
This post is to point something out to DFL voters. As you know, we have not had a DFL governor for twenty years. That's an entire generation. Young people don't know what it's like to have a DFL governor. We have got to change that in this November's election. How can we do that? By making sure we have a candidate who is electable. It's not just the DFL voters who will determine the final winner. It's also all the Minnesota voters who don't vote by party affiliation. They will vote for who they think will make the best governor. Some people will, as always, vote for the person whose name they recognize. Others vote for very strange reasons. One person told me they would never vote for anyone named Steve because that was her ex-husbands name. Crazy? Well sure. And we can't do anything about that kind of voting mentality. On the other hand, we can make sure that the candidate with the greatest liklihood of getting elected gets the DFL endorsement. We have to put aside thoughts of who we personally like best. We have to put aside ideas that the candidates may have that are just not going to bring in the independent voters. Also, we have to look at past electability. There are several candidates who have run for governor and lost. More than once. They have a history of not being electable.
Let's take a look at all the DFL candidates and see just how electable they might be. I won't include Ole Savior for obvious reasons.
I am automatically a state delegate to the DFL state convention. Add in my persuasive abilities and personal volunteer work, to make me, a good endorsement for candidates. That means many personal contacts. So I declared myself "neutral" in the governor's race. I plan on using my vote for fairness and to unite DFLers on later votes. So most campaigns are wisely focussing effort elsewhere than on me!
However, Tom Rukavina spent the day DOORKNOCKING in St. Paul. Tom says that he plans to get 20 votes out of St Paul. So most of you, readers out there, are in Minnesota. So contact Tom Rukavina for your own personal doorknock. I warn you, that you might actually get a knock on your door and be charmed by him.
Another superdelegate endorsement for Tom Bakk from one of his Senate DFL colleagues -- Duluth's Yvonne Prettner Solon:
Tom Bakk is a strong, steady and stable leader in the Minnesota Senate. He is articulate, listens to all sides of an issue, and can relate to Minnesotans and what they are going through during these tough economic times. As chair of the Senate Tax Committee, Tom understands the state's financial challenges and what needs to be done to address these problems.
It's for these reasons Tom has earned my support to be Minnesota's next governor.
Tom has proven himself to be a leader in the Senate and has been very effective not only for his district in northeastern Minnesota, but for rural communities across the state. The firsthand knowledge of how decisions made at the State Capitol impact small towns, school districts, and rural counties is invaluable to the next governor.
As a state legislator, Tom has dealt with many controversial issues over the years. When issues arise, Tom always seeks out the facts and listens to all sides before making a decision. A life-long negotiator, Tom is very reasonable and skilled at maintaining positive relationships.
The Superdelegate Tracker has been updated -- Bakk is up to 16, but still trails Margaret Anderson Kelliher by a sizeable margin.
