The campaign that builds excitement is going to win. I think MAK has the best technical direction. MAK people have picked up on entering many subcaucuses to build a perception of huge support. (Expect 50 subcaucuses at conventions this weekend, as other campaigns follow suit.) I think Rybak has the best spirit and political theater. I saw that Ryback group doing the wave yesterday in subcaucuses. Rybak supporters left energized and happy.
Approximately 300 more DFL state convention delegates were elected this weekend -- so where does the gubernatorial endorsement race stand?
First, standard caveats apply: 970 delegates have been elected so far, and we have conventions that add up to 913. Of those 913, we have results covering 843.5 -- this means our results are not complete. That being said, they are complete enough to get a good idea of where things stand -- just not an exact one.
With that said, on to the totals:
Gubernatorial pledged delegates Uncommitted: 369
R.T. Rybak: 143.5
MAK: 137.5
Paul Thissen: 58.5
John Marty: 49
Tom Rukavina: 41
Matt Entenza: 25
Tom Bakk: 20
The full spreadsheet is posted below. Highlights from the weekend:
R.T Rybak obviously had a very solid weekend, going from about three delegates down to six delegates up in our count. The spreadsheet bears this out -- although Margaret Anderson Kelliher kept up her solid gains and is still comfortably in the overall lead due to superdelegate endorsements, Rybak had a very good day in the west metro suburbs and in Olmstead County, where he appears to have picked up 8 (!) delegates.
Nevertheless, MAK is still in the lead overall, and will likely lead on the first ballot in April. If you factor in the superdelegate endorsements we already know of, and accept Team MAK's claims that fifty more are waiting in the wings, she already has about 17% of the first ballot racked up. Figure in at least a strong portion of the uncommitted delegates to date, and she's approaching 30% already, which will be tough for anyone to beat.
John Marty had a great weekend too, making significant gains in pledged delegates in places like Rice and Itasca counties. He stopped by SD42 briefly during subcaucusing, and we chatted for a minute, during which I expressed my sincere appreciation for his engagement with the MPP community.
Paul Thissen stalled out a little bit in the suburban conventions. His wonderful wife Karen spoke on his behalf at several events on Saturday, but there's a pretty big gap in his section of the spreadsheet in the recent conventions. He'll have support at the convention, but right now he's closer to the second tier than he is to the first.
Props to the members of the Bakk/Choi subcaucus. Certain nomination for Best Subcaucus Name of 2010.
Renew.mn is going to be a player one way or the other. Do they endorse MAK after the first ballot and nip the floor fight in the bud? Do they move toward R.T. Rybak or Paul Thissen and oppose the probable first-ballot leader? Only the ReNew.MN delegates know...and there are quite a few of them.
I'll have an update on the three competitive congressional endorsement races either later today or tomorrow morning. Here's the full spreadsheet -- as always, if you see discrepancies or districts where we're missing delegate totals, help us complete the puzzle. This little project has only gotten to where it is because of the efforts of the entire MPP community, and that's how it will continue to be right through the DFL state convention.
As promised, we've gotten what appear to be accurate reports from Sunday's conventions, and also knocked a couple of previous conventions off the board (Blue Earth CU, Morrison CU, Lac Qui Parle CU). We've also corrected a 1-delegate discrepancy from SD60, and thanks are due to the eagle-eyed Marty supporter who caught it.
The updated totals:
Candidate
Pledged Delegates
Uncommitted
195
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
77.5
R.T. Rybak
72
Paul Thissen
47
Tom Rukavina
28
John Marty
25
Tom Bakk
13.5
Matt Entenza
4
As noted previously, Uncommitted is winning, although there are definitely "hidden" delegates (those actually supporting one candidate or another) in that big total. As also previously noted, Paul Thissen's total here is a bit inflated due to several counties where his are the only results so far -- although Morrison was one of those until we completed it last night.
Updated grid is below. We're now at 86% coverage -- hopefully we can cover about ten of the remaining fourteen percent by the next round of conventions this weekend.
Wild Weekend was...well, wild. More than 500 of 1200 eventual delegates have now been selected -- and we're tracking 77% (415) of those delegates right here.
Of those 415 we now have tracked, here are the totals:
Candidate
Pledged Delegates
Uncommitted
176
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
71.5
R.T. Rybak
65.5
Paul Thissen
43.5
Tom Rukavina
26
John Marty
22
Tom Bakk
7.5
Matt Entenza
2
A few general notes about these totals:
In the screenshot below, you'll see where the discrepancies are -- we did extremely well this weekend tracking the Senate District conventions, but we're still missing totals from several County Unit conventions -- if you were at one or know someone who was and can get us accurate totals, let us know
I know for a fact we're missing a few Entenza delegates, but I simply have not been able to get first-hand reports from those conventions (Nobles County, in particular). So his totals are a tad low.
Similarly, because the reports I got from several of last weekend's conventions were from a Thissen supporter (whom I have no reason to believe isn't being accurate with Thissen's totals), his strong third-place showing right now is likely a bit inflated, as we're missing the rest of the delegates from those conventions. HOWEVER, it is clear that Thissen is doing quite well in rural delegate elections given his metro base (witness his strong performance in his home district of SD63).
The other item of note now that we have considerable totals under our belts is the ReNew.mn factor. Technically, the basic "Uncommitted/Renew.mn" subcaucus is uncommitted in the gubernatorial race. In the purest sense that's true; in reality those delegates (at least 24 of them so far) are probably only going to vote for Rybak, Paul Thissen, or MAK -- in that order -- when push comes to shove in Duluth. Also witness that the only named subcaucuses that include ReNew.mn's name are for those three candidates.
It's not against any rules, but we've heard that a few people here and there have been a bit miffed at the organization calling its delegates "uncommitted." On the other hand, they're an advocacy group, and they're doing a good job of pushing their values through the endorsement process. YMMV, as it's said.
A future post will focus on the congressional campaign breakouts -- some interesting items in there as well.
Here's that full spreadsheet -- discrepancies are color-coded at the bottom. A big thanks to the MPP community for helping make this happen -- we're all looking forward to next week's conventions for more of the same!
What has happened to the Democratic Party of Paul Wellstone? Where have all of the truly bold and visionary progressives gone? Are they hiding under a rock or does the Party Machine not let their voices be heard via the corporate media lest they piss off the corporate sponsors of the Democratic Party? Yes, that is correct, I said Corporate Sponsors of the Democratic Party. After reading the following article, http://www.salon.com/news/opin... I must say it only reinforces the beliefs I have had for the last 12 months.
The Democrats don't care about their base unless it is 9 months before the next election. Then, on cue, they start up with the populist and "working families" rhetoric. After the election is over and they have won, it is right back to "business as usual". They slide up to the lobbyists and continue to do the work of Big Business all the while giving us patronizing quips, gentle pats on the head, and nice, warm fuzzies.
Take, for example, the recent Al Franken rally in Minneapolis. The room was packed and people were cheering for a bill that FORCES PEOPLE TO BUY A PRODUCT THAT IS SO BAD, THE GOVERNMENT HAS TO FORCE PEOPLE TO BUY IT. Unfortunately, it is sadly ironic and masochistic. I am sure there were quite a few people who were questioning the bill, as am I, but you could tell the MoveOn.org, SEIU, HealthCareForAmericaNOW, TakeActionMN, and OFA people were all boldly and vigorously cheering for not only Al Franken but also the bill that the President and Congress will eventually pass.
How is that possible? Why have we, the people of the Democratic Party, become so gullible and misinformed that we are willing to become slaves to the medical insurance industry. If you question that statement, I ask you; what other option is there in the president's plan? How else do I obtain medical insurance except through a private medical insurance company?
I truly believe that if President Bush was offering this very plan the Democratic faithful would be up in arms and frothing at the mouth. However, since someone from our party is in power and is offering the plan, we sit back quietly and say while nodding our head, they must know better.
Bullshit! They don't know better because the facts show that they have sold us out for the campaign contributions by the medical insurance industry, the pharmaceutical industry, the medical device industry, and almost every other sector of health care. I can't believe I just said that. The Democratic Party has sold out the working people for Big Business. Disgusting and pathetic!
Therefore, I forewarn you with great respect and remorse before this legislation becomes law. KILL THE HEALTHCARE REFORM BILL!! KILL THE BILL!! Otherwise, the Democratic Party will no longer be the party of the People. Instead, they will join with the Republicans and be the party for the Power.
I'll update the exact numbers as soon as I make sure I have all the gubernatorial/congressional breakouts correct, as well as ensuring that reNew.MN's delegate election efforts have been correctly accounted for (candidate/reNew.MN vs. straight-up reNew.MN subcaucuses, etc).
These totals are approximate...
Uncommitted: 43+
Rybak: 20
MAK: 16
Marty: 5
Thissen: 4
Rukavina: 4
Bakk: 1
Expect a couple more delegates to be added to these totals once I get additional numbers. But the bottom line in the early conventions seems clear: it's becoming a two-horse race pretty quickly among committed delegates, with Rybak and Margaret Anderson Kelliher running about even. MAK's campaign has laid claim to several uncommitted delegates, as has Rybak's, but MAK also has a big advantage in superdelegate support.
One curious feature of the early conventions has been Rybak's plus performance in suburban and rural areas -- more on that along with exact numbers this evening.
This past Friday, Almanac featured the two top finishers in last week's DFL preference ballot, R.T. Rybak and Margaret Anderson Kelliher. During that show, Rybak and Kelliher did little to encourage any other candidates into the top tier -- a heads-up race sounds like it's just fine with both candidates.
Contrasts were on display during Friday's Almanac, and so are parallels to the 2008 Democratic presidential contest. Those parallels go way beyond the candidates' genders.
No, Rybak-as-Obama and MAK-as-Clinton isn't just a matter of gubernatorial candidates sharing their presidential doppelgangers' chromosomal patterns. It goes to their approaches on the stump and their apparent strategies for winning the party's endorsement in April.
House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher is announcing this morning that she has won the support of two more elected officials (and thus superdelegates to the DFL state convention) in her gubernatorial bid: State Sen. Ellen Anderson (D-St. Paul) and State Rep. Karen Clark (D-Mpls.)
"Margaret is the candidate best positioned to win this race, and to lead our state into the future," Anderson said. "She has an inclusive, welcoming style of leadership and will be a powerful voice for Minnesotans. I'm proud to support her efforts in this race for governor."
"In this important election, Margaret understands the social justice, and the environmental health and economic justice issues that are important for all of our communities," Clark said.
This announcement comes on the heels of the TakeActionMN poll, which gave Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak a boost heading into the precinct caucuses tomorrow. Although the timing of the TakeAction announcement means they won't have a lot of time to mobilize their members for tomorrow's event, it will mean they'll be on the ground between caucuses and the convention looking to influence delegate elections and the overall course of the endorsement race.
Things are going to get interesting, starting tomorrow.
The Superdelegate Tracker has been updated, showing MAK leading the way with 43 superdelegate votes.
If the tone of a recent mailer showing up in mailboxes across Minnesota is any indication, there may be a few more elbows being thrown in the DFL endorsement race.
According to the mailer, which targets Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak,
Several years ago R.T. Rybak and the City of Minneapolis brought a lawsuit saying that they no longer wanted to abide by the agreement to pay pensions and widows. On January 1, 2010 this lawsuit resulted in pensions being reduced by 12% or over $220 a month for police widows and $450 for retired officers. Firefighter widows lost $150 a month and firefighters lost $340 a month. Over 1,400 families are affected by what Rybak has done. On the same day our pension was cut, health care costs for some went up 16%. This has had a dramatic impact on our lives. Elderly people in their 70s, 80s and 90s on fixed incomes now face terrible choices because Rybak would not stand by a previous agreement his city made.
The groups take great care to note that "There are plenty of outstanding DFL candidates who would make a great Governor. R.T. Rybak is not one of them."
Ouch.
But do their claims about Rybak and the lawsuit hold up? That lawsuit did occur, but what these organizations are alleging may not be the whole truth.
Read more and see a copy of the mailer after the break
I got R.T. Rybak's polling call myself this afternoon after several unsuccessful attempts from the "100000000000" caller ID.
Based on my course through the delegate process in 2008, it sounds like Rybak's campaign is either polling all caucus attendees (whether from '08 or repeat attendees from '06 and '08) or delegates to the Senate District/County Unit conventions. The second option would likely be a much more manageable universe to poll (10,000 total maybe?), and would likely more closely resemble the same population this time around.
I am automatically a state delegate to the DFL state convention. Add in my persuasive abilities and personal volunteer work, to make me, a good endorsement for candidates. That means many personal contacts. So I declared myself "neutral" in the governor's race. I plan on using my vote for fairness and to unite DFLers on later votes. So most campaigns are wisely focussing effort elsewhere than on me!
However, Tom Rukavina spent the day DOORKNOCKING in St. Paul. Tom says that he plans to get 20 votes out of St Paul. So most of you, readers out there, are in Minnesota. So contact Tom Rukavina for your own personal doorknock. I warn you, that you might actually get a knock on your door and be charmed by him.
The DFL Veterans Caucus, one of the largest and most active of the Minnesota DFL Party's constituency caucuses, serves as a voice for veterans in the political process, advises the party and candidates on veterans' issues and advocates for veterans and their families. The caucus screened DFL candidates for governor last Saturday.
DFL Veterans Caucus Chair Trista Matascastillo said, "As Mayor of Minneapolis, Rybak oversees the city's Police Force and the Fire Department. Immediately after being elected Mayor in 2001, Rybak received intensive training for emergency response, expertise that he used when responding to the collapse of the I-35 Bridge in August 2007. Rybak has the experience and executive leadership to deploy the National Guard effectively."
Mayor Rybak said he was "deeply honored" to receive the support of the caucus, and continued:
"This organization advocates every day for Minnesota's 416,000 veterans, and I am proud to work alongside them.
"Our nation and state owes veterans and their families a deep debt of gratitude for their service, sacrifice, bravery and patriotism. We also need to remember the great assets that veterans bring to our community. In their service to our country they learn leadership, teamwork, problem solving and performance under pressure. We need them working for Minnesota companies and building Minnesota communities.
It's go-time for the DFL's constituency caucuses -- good luck to anyone who's a member of more than one of those groups in making their decision.
The endorsement of Stonewall is always important. Matt Entenza just announced that endorsement.
Stonewall DFL Endorses Entenza
ST. PAUL, Minn. - In the first DFL caucus endorsement of the 2010 gubernatorial campaign, Matt Entenza has been endorsed by the Stonewall DFL, the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, friends and allies caucus of the DFL Party of Minnesota.
Entenza has a long history of advocating for equal rights for all Minnesotans. Believing it's wrong for the government to allow some adults full rights as citizens and deny others those same rights, he co-authored the first Minnesota bill for marriage equality. He opposed a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. He supported domestic partner benefits for state employees and authored legislation to increase the penalties faced by those convicted of crimes based on sexual orientation.
Entenza has been endorsed by the Stonewall Caucus in every campaign he has run since 1994.
Earlier this year, in conjunction with the Twin Cities Pride festival, Entenza released a video, "Pride," which can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
"Matt Entenza's position on the issues important to our members is as simple as it is strong: equality for all Minnesotans - period," said Del Jenkins, chair of Stonewall DFL. "It is easy for us to support someone we truly believe will make the best governor of Minnesota."
Said Entenza: "I am so proud to have earned the endorsement of Stonewall DFL. I am committed to running a campaign and having an administration that reflects the rich diversity of our state. Stonewall DFL stands strong for equal rights - as I always have and always will. They will be an invaluable partner in making Minnesota work again for all Minnesotans."
Stonewall DFL, with more than 4,000 members, is a political organization that works for a safe and equitable Minnesota by working to elect GLBT and allied Democrats to office in Minnesota and within the DFL. Stonewall offers advice to candidates and campaigns about GLBT outreach and offers endorsements for local, state and federal DFL candidates. By its most recent assessment, it has a 92 percent success rate for endorsed candidates.
As a prelude to this story, I just want to see how much I admire the DFL candidates that we have out there and how much they put out in running for office. Just this week, I know that one candidate was at the hospital to provide moral support in the middle of the previous night before a big announcement. One cannot thank the candidates or their families enough for their work.
The world of political persuasion now changes almost as fast as fashion trends. I have noticed that many candidates seem to be following political trends that are very old. And even worse, that candidates are not following blogs or trends themselves, relying on staff to tell them changes. So this article is for the few who are reading and paying attention.
Several major changes in the political news have caused a shift to more distrust in politics and in government, even led by Democrats. The banks had 100% help while doing very little to refinance ordinary people. The number of troops in Afghanistan is increasing by 30,000. Meaningful healthcare reform, especially a robust public option, failed! That means that same words that worked just weeks ago, now produce scowls in the audience.
This means that people are asking why should trust any politican anymore? Is there any parts of government that still represent people instead of major corporations?
Even in Minnesota candidate screenings for governor last Saturday, these changes became even clearer.
Any candidate who just describes a problem, who just listens, who just promises to work hard and who does NOT commit to a specific plan of action is obviously not really for the people on the issue. Saying the words, "universal health care" without single-payer or medicare-for-all implies the continued support of health insurance profits while allowing health care companies to actually deny even more healthcare. Actually universal required health INSURANCE would be catastrophic for actually getting the health care, for then insurance companies could deny any thing expensive.
Candidates who have stood for something when it was not popular have way more credibility that someone who suddenly noticed the changing poll numbers.
Candidates, who actually had to deal with real government, making mistakes and then fixing them, are way more credible than candidates who can pretend that they never would have made a mistake because they did nothing, not even speak up. In the same way, candidates who do not raise money nor speak beyond their home base, really are not credible candidates.
It is obvious that at least in the governor's race, activists want more than a nicely marketed political package!
In my crystal ball, this is how I could see a winning strategy play out:
One of the best ways to gain delegates would be motivate new precinct voters to caucus, generating the most delegates on precinct caucus night. Effectively organizing in typical low turnout precincts where every person becomes a delegate could make the difference. I would give Margaret Anderson-Kelliher's campaign manager, Jamie Tincher odds as being the best manager to organize this.
Being everyone's second best choice would definitely win. DFLers are not likely to be delivered as a block by the first choice candidate, so after the precinct caucuses, the calling for undecided's first choice and other people's second choice should get very interesting.
The regular precinct caucus attendees are waiting to be impressed. So what could impress these jaded DFLers?
A huge fundraising end-of-the-year number
A television ad, even just released on Youtube that had the force of a Ventura "thinker" ad
Barack Obama style grassroots support
Persuading a Wind Turbine industry to announce a new plant here
I am not seeing a primary challenge as a smart move. I think Democrats are worried about losing the general race, so there would be a huge backlash to "risking" the general election.
As for myself, I am just super impressed. So I will stay neutral, using my vote to encourage people to play well together. I want DFLers to come out of the convention happy!
