The campaign that builds excitement is going to win. I think MAK has the best technical direction. MAK people have picked up on entering many subcaucuses to build a perception of huge support. (Expect 50 subcaucuses at conventions this weekend, as other campaigns follow suit.) I think Rybak has the best spirit and political theater. I saw that Ryback group doing the wave yesterday in subcaucuses. Rybak supporters left energized and happy.
Approximately 300 more DFL state convention delegates were elected this weekend -- so where does the gubernatorial endorsement race stand?
First, standard caveats apply: 970 delegates have been elected so far, and we have conventions that add up to 913. Of those 913, we have results covering 843.5 -- this means our results are not complete. That being said, they are complete enough to get a good idea of where things stand -- just not an exact one.
With that said, on to the totals:
Gubernatorial pledged delegates Uncommitted: 369
R.T. Rybak: 143.5
MAK: 137.5
Paul Thissen: 58.5
John Marty: 49
Tom Rukavina: 41
Matt Entenza: 25
Tom Bakk: 20
The full spreadsheet is posted below. Highlights from the weekend:
R.T Rybak obviously had a very solid weekend, going from about three delegates down to six delegates up in our count. The spreadsheet bears this out -- although Margaret Anderson Kelliher kept up her solid gains and is still comfortably in the overall lead due to superdelegate endorsements, Rybak had a very good day in the west metro suburbs and in Olmstead County, where he appears to have picked up 8 (!) delegates.
Nevertheless, MAK is still in the lead overall, and will likely lead on the first ballot in April. If you factor in the superdelegate endorsements we already know of, and accept Team MAK's claims that fifty more are waiting in the wings, she already has about 17% of the first ballot racked up. Figure in at least a strong portion of the uncommitted delegates to date, and she's approaching 30% already, which will be tough for anyone to beat.
John Marty had a great weekend too, making significant gains in pledged delegates in places like Rice and Itasca counties. He stopped by SD42 briefly during subcaucusing, and we chatted for a minute, during which I expressed my sincere appreciation for his engagement with the MPP community.
Paul Thissen stalled out a little bit in the suburban conventions. His wonderful wife Karen spoke on his behalf at several events on Saturday, but there's a pretty big gap in his section of the spreadsheet in the recent conventions. He'll have support at the convention, but right now he's closer to the second tier than he is to the first.
Props to the members of the Bakk/Choi subcaucus. Certain nomination for Best Subcaucus Name of 2010.
Renew.mn is going to be a player one way or the other. Do they endorse MAK after the first ballot and nip the floor fight in the bud? Do they move toward R.T. Rybak or Paul Thissen and oppose the probable first-ballot leader? Only the ReNew.MN delegates know...and there are quite a few of them.
I'll have an update on the three competitive congressional endorsement races either later today or tomorrow morning. Here's the full spreadsheet -- as always, if you see discrepancies or districts where we're missing delegate totals, help us complete the puzzle. This little project has only gotten to where it is because of the efforts of the entire MPP community, and that's how it will continue to be right through the DFL state convention.
Today I attended the SD64 Convention at Central High School in St. Paul. There was a very good turnout and the energy level was high. I had a good time and found myself grinning at all my candidate friends.
Let's get the awards out of the way first.
Best tie: J. P. Barone
Most applause: R. T. Rybak
Most Improved Presentation: Matt Entenza
Most Entertaining: Tom Rukavina
Most Elusive: Mark Dayton (he was nowhere to be found)
Most Campaign T-shirts: Paul Thissen and R. T. Rybak (all these t-shirts were running around like characters in a Disney movie)
It was 77 years ago this week when Franklin Delano Roosevelt stood on the steps of our nation's capitol and began to clear the clouds of hopelessness that covered America.
We were in the depths of the Great Depression. But FDR was resolute; he reminded us that "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself." And then he got to work - getting Americans on the job again, crafting a New Deal and lifting the spirits of our nation.
Today our challenges are being called the Great Recession. Our country and our state face challenges the likes of which we haven't seen in generations. Now, like then, we need leaders with vision to face challenges and create opportunity.
Inspired by FDR's inaugural anniversary, I want to share with you this video about my vision for our state's economy.
We can make Minnesota great again. We are poised to lead the nation in the clean energy economy, creating jobs and rejuvenating every corner of our state. When these jobs take hold in our communities, other businesses will benefit as well.
The road ahead won't always be easy, but charting a new course never is. I know what it's like to face challenges - and I know what it's like to overcome them. Together, as one Minnesota, we will do that.
Watch the video, and then join our campaign. It's time to get Minnesota working again, and to make Minnesota great again.
Since Reps. EriK Paulsen (R) and Tim Walz (D) raised the subject of lifting the moratorium on building new nuclear power plants in MN, I figured it was time to get statements from the DFL MN-GOV candidates on the subject. They all oppose lifting the moratorium except RT Rybak who didn't answer the question and doesn't want to rule it out.
Margaret Anderson-Kelliher - concerned about storage, MN should create clean energy jobs.
Mark Dayton - Lifting the moratorium would be an injustice placed upon future generations.
Matt Entenza - A centerpiece of his campaign has been green energy solutions.
John Marty - he wrote the moratorium bill, nuff said.
Tom Rukavina - for moratorium until we figure out national disposal situation.
RT Rybak - Maximize energy efficiency, conservation and renewable energy sources first, but doesn't want to take nuclear off the table. RT wants the moratorium.
Paul Thissen - MN should lead in green technologies.
(Now I don't know if a person who still thinks the Vikings are going to win can be trusted with political advice. However, I have been pondering the advantages of Tom Rukavina as a running mate, who manages to make even non-supporters laugh and enjoy his company. - promoted by Grace Kelly)
As I bide time before the start of the Super Bowl I give you this NFL metaphor for the Minnesota DFL gubernatorial candidates as the county conventions and April state convention approach. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, the winner of the Feb. 2 straw vote, and House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, a very close second in the straw vote, control their own destinies. The only way one of these two are not the DFL endorsed candidate is if both of them flame out at the local conventions or destroy one another. We live in Minnesota, home of the Vikings, and we're talking about Democrats, which means that both of these things are possible.
So Rybak and Kelliher are the front runners. Every other candidate still has a chance but, in football commentator vernacular, they need some help. Matt Entenza has the ability to increase his payroll and marketing to help himself. John Marty, Tom Rukavina and Paul Thissen all need external help to some degree; Tom Bakk and Susan Gaertner need it to a larger degree. In most cases, this means that each of these candidates needs one or more specific other candidates to falter and drop before the first ballot of the state convention. Meantime, Mark Dayton, who's waiting for the primary, represents the metaphorical New Orleans Saints in the NFC championship game. The endorsed candidate could beat him. No really, they could. (Run it, Favre. RUN IT!) Don't read too much into the direct football to candidate parallels. I'm just imagining the "what ifs" for the Vikings this year.
Who will Minnesota's next governor be? We'll assume and hope that it will be a DFLer. There are a lot of candidates. Which one should we vote for? How do voters choose?
Many voters choose a name on the ballot at random. We've all done this at some point over the years, especially when we see a list of judges or county attorneys on the ballot. Most people have no idea who these candidates are. Some voters choose a name that sounds good to them or is vaguely familiar. Others may choose by gender. Some will choose a female just for the sake of having more females in office.
Others choose a name that they recognize. The more recognizable the candidate's name is, the better the chances of getting elected. In this year's gubernatorial race, the two top candidates for name recognition, at least so far, are Mark Dayton and R. T. Rybak.
Some voters actually research the candidates' stand on various issues. Others abide by the party's endorsement or by the endorsement of their union or other organization. Others will vote for their legislator who happens to be running for governor.
Many others vote on personalities. Jesse Ventura had a personality that was unforgettable. Skip Humphrey didn't. Norm Coleman might have had but his mudslinging alienated voters.
Finally, voters vote for a candidate they resonate with. They want a candidate they have something in common with. If they think a particular candidate is nothing at all like them, they probably won't vote for that person.
Yesterday, Tim Pawlenty spent part of his lunch hour going after me on MPR. Interestingly, he went after me in conjunction with Minnesota 2020, the think tank I founded in 2007. More interestingly, he didn’t dispute their many criticisms of him – he mostly seemed irritated that anyone WOULD criticize him.
(I left Minnesota 2020 last spring, but I’m very proud of the work I did there.)
Gov. Pawlenty’s interview was, of course, in conjunction with the start of the 2010 legislation. Tonight, he and some of our legislators will address the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce. No doubt there will be a pretty significant gap between what he says and what they say.
My question for you is this: Is there any reason to believe things will go better this year than they have the past few?
We elect leaders to get a job done for us. It’s unconscionable that we allow the governor to have his way on critical issues at nearly every turn. Is our party leadership going to stand up to the governor this year – or will they allow him to run roughshod over this session, too?
There’s a saying: If you keep doing what you're doing, you'll keep getting what you're getting. In our case, that means if we keep letting the governor have his way, we’ll continue to see our state deteriorate. We’ll also continue to see more voters decide it doesn’t matter whether or not they show up.
On Tuesday night, about 46,000 Minnesotans of all political stripes participated in precinct caucuses – less than 1% of the population in a state that normally has the highest voter participation in the nation.
The outcome shows several things: First, that Democrats are depressed and unhappy with their current leaders. Second, that this race is wide open – but that victories, even very small ones, go to those who show up.
I’m in this race to win because Minnesota needs a leader who is ready to boldly face our state’s challenges and create opportunity for people to succeed. I’m going to continue spreading my message. And I’m going to continue standing strong for our values.
So ... many of us went to our DFL caucus last night. Many of because we want a DFLer to be our next Governor. So what? Well there are many implications going forward in the Minnesota Governor's race (MN-GOV), mainly for the RT Rybak and Margaret Anderson-Kelliher campaigns -- the race is wide open for them to win or lose. All campaigns will be working hard to get some delegates elected from the upcoming Senate District conventions.
Will John Marty, Paul Thissen and Tom Rukavina be able to get enough delegates together to get the 7-9% that their straw poll results indicate they might pull?
Obviously, the Rybak and MAK campaigns will more than likely go into the state conventions with 20% to maybe even 25% of the delegates committed to them. But what about the rest?
Any delegates Tom Bakk, Matt Entenza, Susan Gaertner and Steve Kelley elect will have choices after their candidates are dropped on the first ballot.
I just wanted to share with you a quick note about my friend Rep. Keith Ellison.
Keith is a remarkable public servant and a true friend. We've known each other since law school, and I'm very honored by his commitment to make Minnesota work again.
As many of you know, Keith was an early endorser of my campaign, and as we get ready to huddle in our schools and community centers tonight, I wanted to share a message from Keith about why he's supporting our campaign.
Listen to what Keith has to say:
As a reminder, tonight is precinct caucuses, and I'm asking for you to caucus for me.
We face many challenges, but we also have great opportunities before us. Working together, we can build a better Minnesota for everyone.
There have been lots of fundraising numbers flying around in the past couple of weeks as gubernatorial candidates look to spin their prowess on the donor circuit into positive press and grassroots support. But can we compare their numbers on an apples-to-apples basis?
Sure. Here's how (and a big thanks goes to Robin Marty for helping me assemble these numbers).
This might be a little difficult to read, so let's break it down: the columns you'll want to watch closely are all the way to the right, in Dollars Per Month and Dollars Per Donor.
The idea here is that candidates started raising money at different times from different people, so we want to get an idea of how quickly they're raising it and from whom -- a higher Dollars Per Donor figure means the candidate is hitting up fewer donors for higher amounts, and a lower figure means the campaign can go back to those same donors repeatedly for more donations.
Dollars Per Month can tell us how quickly a candidate taps out their fundraising "base" -- if the candidate has only been in the race for a few months but has raised a bunch of money, there's a decent chance this rate will fall off quickly as they get into tougher-to-get dollars. The same thing happened to Paul Thissen after he pulled in "low-hanging fruit" in 2008.
So with Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Matt Entenza, and Paul Thissen all bunched up around $182-$184 per donor, we don't know a whole lot about their takes other than that MAK has raised money faster than the other two (by virtue of being an official candidate for less time than the others. Steve Kelley -- whose totals here are accurate, as confirmed by his campaign this week, btw -- has a lower dollars-per-donor figure, so on average he can hit those same donors up for more money this year than the others can. Ditto Tom Rukavina.
On the GOP side, it's tough to do any kind of comparison, since at last check we still don't know how many individual donors Tom Emmer had in 2009.
Update: R.T. Rybak just reported a total fundraising take of $278,000 since November of last year -- breaking down the numbers as accurately as possible leaves Rybak with $92,667/month for his gubernatorial committee, and a dollars-per-donor figure of $200. Rybak is in a unique position in that he spent all of last year campaigning for reelection, so he had a custom-build fundraising call list waiting for him last November. Rybak reported having $25,000 cash-on-hand at the end of 2009 -- but a big fundraising push at the beginning of this year as well. His fundraising came from a total of 691 donors.
Metro-vs-Greater Minnesota comparisons would be quite interesting for Rybak.
As the world moves forward and new generations of people enter the world without having known Martin Luther King Jr or his dream, it is important we all remember the role he had in shaping the future of our country and humankind. Although he is most revered as a leader in the Civil Rights Movement, he also stood as a leader for moral justice and opportunity for all Americans.
As King proclaimed many years ago, in a somewhat different America:
"Let us rise up tonight with a greater readiness. Let us stand with a greater determination. And let us move on in these powerful days, these days of challenge to make America what it ought to be. We have an opportunity to make America a better nation."
We've come a long way since then, but as many Americans and Minnesotans know, hard work remains. As the rusted iron jaws of poverty clamp tightly around the new victims of the Great Recession, we cannot abandon King's creed.
We must continue to dream the dream, and make America a better nation and Minnesota a better state.
(My apologies to April/Colleen, but I moved all the candidates answers below the fold ... just to be fair. Thanks for all your work on this, April/Colleen! - promoted by The Big E)
As you may recall, I sent all ten of the gubernatorial candidates a question for them to answer regarding hepatitis C and what they will do as governor to address this very serious issue. I received five responses back. I've submitted them to reNEW.MN Campaign. Here's the responses with my comments.
Tonight I attended the SD62 spaghetti dinner in South Minneapolis. I had a great time. I got there early, as usual, and went right to work introducing myself and meeting new people. I met one very nice gentleman who told me he had just lost his job. I gave him the District 6 Toastmasters website so he could find a club near him to network with.
I also met some fellow bloggers who are on this blog site. It was great to meet Eric Pusey, who brought his wife and toddler daughter (so cute), Dyna and also the other Eric who blogs here. Fantastic people!
The pasta sauce was very good. So were the desserts. I only had one small piece of cake, but everything sure looked delicious!
Many of the gubernatorial candidates were still Up North and didn't make it to this event. Those who did make it were John Marty, Paul Thissen, Matt Entenza and Steve Kelley. Some of the absent candidates sent representatives to speak for them. Orrie Salper spoke for Tom Rukavina. Good job, Orrie. Tom, give the man a raise! Tom Bakk also had a staffer to speak for him, as did R. T. Rybak and Margaret Anderson Kelliher.
The one thing I didn't like at all was how so many people kept right on talking through the speeches. This would never happen at a Toastmasters event. When someone is at the front of the room speaking, please give them the respect they deserve by listening to what they have to say.
The two best speakers of the night were not candidates. They were Keith Ellison and Patricia Torres Ray. I was very impressed with the speaking abilities of both of them as well as with their ability to command the attention of a crowd. I especially liked Patricia's ability to get the audience to be quiet and listen to her. Way to go Patricia! We would love to have you in Toastmasters!
The worst speaker of the night was Lori Swanson simply because she was so loud that I had to put my fingers over my ears. How can a woman that skinny talk so loud?
