I think I know why Republican MN-GOV candidate Tom Emmer doesn't have much of a grasp of policy issues. It has become clear that he has a real problem keeping things straight. We've seen numerous instances since his late April endorsement.
Yes, that's right. That is former DFL MN-GOV candidate and former Speaker of the House Margaret Anderson Kelliher busting Emmer for listening to music during a hearing for the Commission on Planning & Fiscal Policy Cash Flow Issues. Instead of paying attention, Emmer is rocking out.
I submit to you that this wasn't the only time that Emmer wasn't paying attention.
Time for shakeup? The DFL high command appears to have a high powered rifle used every four years to shoot the party in the foot. I was a delegate to the state DFL Convention four years ago and watched the insiders push Mike Hatch through the endorsement. The people's choice was Steve Kelley and had he been endorsed I doubt that we would be whining about Timmy today.
This spring the state DFL insiders pushed MAK through the endorsement slot. Had RT been the endorsed candidate we would have a quite different landscape today. It was discouraging at the convention to see all the insiders working round the clock to protect MAK.
Either of these endorsees would be a super governor, but the party left the prize horse securely locked in the stable both times.
"I just spoke with Mark Dayton and congratulated him on winning the DFL primary. I offered him my full support. He will make an excellent governor.
"I am so grateful for all of the hard work of our volunteers and supporters over the last twelve months. This was a people-powered, grassroots campaign and we should all be proud of what we achieved together.
"In Minnesota we value every person's voice and count every person's vote. And that's what happened this election.
"Today we will come together as DFLers. We will unite behind Mark Dayton, and beat Tom Emmer in November."
The results are (almost) in, and they're clear: You, as a community, are awesome.
Tallies (with 98% of precincts reporting):
Candidate
Actual
Avg. Pred.
Error
Dayton
41.13%
39.93%
0.24
Kelliher
39.93%
39.51%
0.42
Entenza
18.99%
18.23%
0.76
According to the scoring rules for our contest, that's a total error of 1.41 -- as a group, you absolutely nailed this election. Average predicted turnout was 367,601, which is a bit lower than the actual 437,571 which have been counted so far, but I won't hold that against you.
And drumroll please....our winner of fabulous prizes is....
dgerber, who predicted a final outcome as follows:
Candidate
Actual
dgerber
Error
Dayton
41.13%
39.80%
1.33
Kelliher
39.93%
39.90%
0.03
Entenza
18.99%
20.30%
2.07
A smidge high on Entenza, but dgerber nailed MAK's result closer than anyone else, and had a total error of just 3.43. Honorable mentions go to Iams712 whose Dayton prediction of 41.25% was within 0.12 of the final result, TonyAngelo who pegged Entenza at 18.25, and TonyAngelo again for his turnout prediction of 446,887, just 2,429 votes over where we currently stand (and likely to get closer as the final, final results come in.
Congrats to our winner and thanks to everyone who participated!
It's 6:10 AM -- do you know where your DFL primary results are?
WCCO now shows 98% of precincts reporting:
Mark Dayton 179,969
Margaret Kelliher 174,743
Matt Entenza 79,784
Peter Idusogie 3,075
With more than 437,000 votes cast (we'll have a prediction winner soon!) those 5226 votes a margin of almost 1.2% -- a hard-fought and narrow result to be sure, but far more than a recount could change. As Aaron noted at the 'Stool, it's time to move forward with that unity presser this morning and turn our attention to the epic choice before the state of Minnesota.
Until we have that closure, apparent victor Mark Dayton is in a sensitive spot -- he made clear beforehand that his gathering last night would not be a "victory" party since it represented one Democrat beating another no matter the result, but he still has to be cognizant of Kelliher, her supporters, and their feelings about last night's results.
Kelliher, for her part, brought the DFL endorsement to bear in this race, and almost made it hold up -- Jerry Janezich she was most certainly not. Once all the votes are finally counted, it's going to be incumbent upon her to rally her troops to Dayton's banner rather than her own.
The most striking piece of last night's events was the trendline -- from the very early returns, which favored Kelliher heavily, Dayton's building advantage never, ever, ever let up. His focus on senior citizens and on northern Minnesota, especially with his pick of Duluth's Yvonne Prettner Solon as a running mate, appears to have paid off in just enough spades to win. And with turnout this high (2.27 million votes were cast in the 2006 general election, so turnout appears to be well over 25% in this primary), that's a lot of likely voters Dayton has just banked for November.
As I usually say about this stuff, quite interesting.
If you want to know what's going on tomorrow night, MPP is one place you'll want to keep an eye on. Our intrepid bloggers will be hanging out at all the campaign headquarters tweeting and posting about what's going on.
Just like during the DFL Convention, we'll have a twitterfeed for all MPP front pagers. If you're going to be attending a party and would like your twitterfeed added, please say so in the comments. If you'll be attending a primary night party and would be willing to liveblog, let us know in the comments -- we'll front-page your post!
MAK - ericf & tonyangelo
Dayton - Rachel Nygaard & TwoPuttTommy
Entenza - Blue Collar Daughter
Dan Powers (MN-02) - The Big E
Rena Moran (65A) - Populista
John Choi & SD67 - Grace Kelly (she can be in multiple places at the same time! Amazing, no?)
SD50 - lams712
Joe will be at home monitoring all the shenanigans (he's got visitors in town).
Duluth. The final ballot of the DFL state convention. There I was on, the floor, crushed. So close. All the work I had done to get RT Rybak the endorsement, finished.
It took me a few days to get over that moment.
I have never been one to dwell on defeat. Far more useful to learn from mistakes than to worry about them.
Why had Margaret won the endorsement? Ultimately, I came to the conclusion she had built a stronger, broader coalition, a skill with which she excels.
At the end of this eleciton adventure, we will have a new governor, and I can think of few people I would rather have as my governor than Margaret Anderson Kelliher.
Minnesota's primary election tomorrow. Had you heard?
Most folks around here are pretty familiar with the three candidates vying for the DFL gubernatorial nomination. So to what can we look forward depending on the victor?
Mark Dayton: If recent polls are accurate, Dayton is the odds-on favorite tomorrow. This will be a one-day problem for the DFL; if Dayton does win, the party's central committee will meet as soon as Wednesday to endorse him and the general election season will officially begin. But there will be longer-term questions to address about the viability of the current party endorsement system and the role of media, money, and grassroots campaigning -- of course, the direction of those conversations will be heavily influenced by whether Dayton wins the general election as well, a proposition that is well within the bounds of reason.
Personally, I wouldn't mind a discussion about moving to an endorsement system like Connecticut's regardless of whether Dayton wins, but who knows how much my opinion is worth.
X Factor: Yvonne Prettner Solon would be a huge asset in bringing home votes from northern Minnesota.
Margaret Anderson Kelliher: House Speaker Kelliher's primary campaign has been based on a theme of competence and sound management for state government. But her task has been to break through the air wars being fought by Dayton and Matt Entenza using the party's field operation to turn out loyal DFL voters tomorrow. If it works, it's validation for the advances the DFL has made in the past decade in the areas of targeting, voter ID, and GOTV. If it doesn't, then the party has successfully driven primary turnout high enough to provide its eventual nominee with a great boost in likely voters heading into November. Win, lose, or draw, the Speaker has done her part so far to build up for DFL success this year.
Matt Entenza: This seems like the unlikeliest win scenario given recent polls, but Entenza's campaign has put on a brave face and insisted that their supporters are holding steady for tomorrow and that they are more committed than those claiming to support the other two candidates. The other candidates' support would have to be a lot softer than Entenza's for it to matter. I've noted for a while now that Entenza's knowledge on policy matters is great, but that he hasn't been able to really catch fire with inspirational stump presence -- a classic "head vs. heart" problem.
In running a pretty clean race with some solid TV ads and only minor barbs for the other candidates, Entenza has definitely cleaned up the bad taste left in many party regulars' mouths after the 2006 AG's race debacle. If the polls bear out and Entenza does not emerge victorious tomorrow, I think he still has an important role to play. If he bucks the trendlines and somehow does emerge victorious, I think the process of the DFL leadership sorting out just what the heck happened takes a few days longer; ultimately, however, the result is still the same. Unify, and go toss the spluttering Emmer campaign an anchor.
Oh, and FYI: The MPP Prediction Contest is currently running an average predicted result of
Republican MN-GOV candidate Tom Emmer got confused again over a vote he made on ethanol. Up until now, Emmer has been a back-bencher and has been allowed to pander, fling poo and simply make stuff up. But now with the intense media scrutiny, he made yet another gaffe.
At the annual Farmfest agricultural fair in Redwood Falls, House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher challenged Emmer for voting against legislation requiring a higher mix of corn-based ethanol in Minnesota gasoline and a similar requirement for biodiesel fuel. Ethanol is popular in Minnesota, one of the top five ethanol-producing states.
Emmer responded that he voted for the mandates, but then corrected himself to say he voted against the biodiesel requirement. Legislative records show he also voted both for and against the ethanol mandate in 2005.
(WTOP 103.5 FM)
Let's just be clear. The only reason that Emmer corrected himself is that Margaret challenged him on it. Emmer's past gaffes indicate he has a real problem with the truth:
"It's interesting when people don't _ they say one thing and they actually do another," Kelliher said after raising the ethanol issue.
Let's also be clear that Emmer is willing to say absolutely anything, regardless of the truth of it, if he thinks it'll play well with the crowd he's facing.
(Pushing this back up to the top to make sure we have as many participants as possible -- we're also tracking community-wide averages here, so we'll have a "Wisdom of the Crowd (or lack thereof!)" post after the fact.
Predict away -- remember, we're dead serious about the fabulous prizes! - promoted by Joe Bodell)
We are officially one week away from the DFL gubernatorial primary, in which either Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Mark Dayton, or Matt Entenza will become the party's nominee to face Republican Tom Emmer and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner (probably) in November.
Wow, that's a mouthful. Anyway, this will be the official prediction contest thread -- to be considered for the contest, leave a comment in the following format:
MAK: ##.#
Dayton: ##.#
Entenza: ##.#
Statewide turnout: ######
Where the ##s are replaced by a number indicating the candidate's final percentage. The winner will be the submission who misses the final percentages by the smallest total margin. So if the final numbers are
MAK: 38.6
Dayton: 40.2
Entenza: 21.2
And you submitted
MAK: 40.9
Dayton: 37.5
Entenza: 21.6
Then your total miss margin would be (40.9 - 38.6) + (40.2 - 37.5) + (21.6 - 21.2) = 2.3 + 2.7 + 0.4 = 5.4. As in golf and other silly sports, lower scores are better. The statewide turnout (total number of votes cast in the DFL gubernatorial primary) will serve as a tiebreaker, just in case, and closest figure will win regardless of The Price is Right rules.
And as implied in the headline, there are fabulous prizes at stake, prizes which may or may not be MN Progressive Project t-shirts available in a variety of Large and XL sizes!
That headline may give the impression that there's something horribly wrong with the Minnesota Poll that came out this weekend showing Mark Dayton at 40%, Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 30%, and Matt Entenza at about 17%.
Nah, nothing really major. Given the large margin for error in low-turnout races like this, the results of this poll don't surprise at all. I think there's a significant chance that MAK overperforms this poll next week based on the strength of the DFL's statewide field operation, but the bottom line is that most DFL primary voters know and have a pretty favorable opinion of Mark Dayton.
After the poll was released, Matt Entenza's campaign was quick to note that the primary will be a low-turnout affair, seemingly emphasizing that their supporters are a better bet to show up eight days from now. We'll see, I guess, but these numbers don't bode well for the former Minority Leader.
Some poignant snippets from the Star Tribune's writeup, to which I only grudgingly link since they insist on breaking it up into four separate pages so they can show you more stupid ads you don't care about:
The poll highlights some strengths for the Democrats -- particularly Dayton -- and some notable weaknesses for Emmer.
In the general election match-ups, the Democrats seem to have particularly wide leads among women and people older than 45. The gap widens among those over 65, where Dayton holds a significant advantage. Emmer's only identifiable strengths were among those who earn more than $75,000 a year and among Minnesotans between age 35 and 44.
That's about right too -- the GOP's only age-based demographic advantage is among Generation Xers; their only income advantage is among the upper levels of professional fields. Younger voters, older voters, and the middle class are generally behind the DFL's priorities regardless of how well or poorly the party has communicated them.
The poll also suggests that come November, Independence Party endorsee Tom Horner -- who trails the field -- could draw equally from Democrats and Republicans in a general election unless Kelliher is the nominee. In a Kelliher-Emmer match-up, Horner would draw far more from Republicans than from Democrats. That would be a change from the dynamic of previous elections, when Democrats have been more vulnerable to third-party candidates.
I generally don't think "contrast" is a legitimate issue to raise in intramural races until there are numbers backing it up. Now there are -- despite not being the world's most charismatic campaigner, Margaret Anderson Kelliher definitely provides a stark contrast, in background and visual impression, to the Toms.
With a week to go, I have to say I've been pleasantly surprised to see the intramural long knives staying in their sheaths. Hopefully the next eight days can remain a relatively cordial contest on the issues, and next Wednesday we'll have a nominee to win this race (finally).
As you know, the primary election on August 10 is fast approaching, and turnout is of paramount importance. This weekend, SD59 DFL and DFL-endorsed gubernatorial candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher are teaming up to knock doors in the Cedar-Riverside area, including the large high-rises. As regular door-knockers know, building managers have to let knockers in, but only if the candidate is present. So Margaret will be coming along and reaching out to the diverse population of the Cedar-Riverside area. Come meet Margaret and help her doorknock and gather support and votes so she can become the state's first female governor...and then make us proud with her ambitious agenda, including single-payer health care in MN!
CEDAR-RIVERSIDE DOORKNOCK WITH MARGARET ANDERSON KELLIHER
Saturday, July 31 from Noon until 4pm
At the home of Neghuse Demtsu
1515 S. 4th St., Building E
Apt. 1507 Minneapolis,MN 55445
For more information contact DFL field organizer Alexis Pennie at (612) 998-2382 or apennieATdfl.org.
I just got back from Utah last night, and I'm pleased to say I'm coming back to good news: according to Rasmussen, of all pollsters, all three DFL gubernatorial candidates are leading Tom Emmer.
Dayton: 40
Emmer: 36
Horner: 10
Undecided: 14
MAK: 40
Emmer: 35
Horner: 11
Undecided: 14
Entenza: 37
Emmer: 36
Horner: 12
Undecided: 15
Dayton's and MAK's results are essentially the same -- it looks like the only real shift among all three is that Entenza runs a little behind the other two, losing a few points among self-identified Democrats to "Undecided".
Political analyst David Schultz said it looked like Emmer was clearly ahead back in May. He believes two things have changed. He believes the democrats are now better known than a few months ago and Emmer's recent dispute with waiters and waitresses didn't help.
"I think there is some erosion of support for emmer regarding comments he's made about tips and minimum wage"
Alec brings up a good point in that diary linked above -- Rasmussen's house effect is about four points. That doesn't make their numbers wrong (especially given that about half of the polls done this cycle have been done by Rasmussen, so there may be a "poll to push the results" effect when all is said and done) but it does give us some insight into the way they build their likely-voter models.
But folks -- there's more to this than Shultz is saying in the Fox9 article. The great news about this poll is that this is how a primary should be run. Instead of one campaign opposing Tom Emmer, we have three, and instead of the media allowing Emmer a free pass, plenty of news coverage has been showered on the three DFL candidates instead (Waitergate notwithstanding). All three teams are working hard, and there haven't yet been any public spats that will preclude them from working together, and hard, from August 11th through November.
It looks like we have a great shot at avoiding the intramural bloodbath some worried about before the state convention. No complaints here.
Can Tom Emmer be elected governor? I certainly hope not; it would be a disaster far greater than Timmy has created. Sadly the DFL seems to be staggering along to make this nightmare a possibility.
We have a DFL endorsed candidate who may not survive the primary. It seems we have a stealth candidate roaming beneath the radar of the general news media. Meanwhile Dayton and Entenza talk to the people. Emmer garners all sorts of attention, albeit much of it public insanity, but he is clearly above the media radar starting with his filing rally. (MAK had a quiet, dignified and forgettable filing ceremony.)
The MAK campaign is hard to find and even harder to understand. All solutions will come later. She grew up on a farm and experienced a financial crisis. She shares the institutional DFL fear of talking about restoring tax morality. Only Dayton brings up the subject of restoring the tax cut
gifts to the wealthy. MAK apparently shares the GOP mantra that all the rich will pack up and drag all of their companies to more pleasant tax climes if they are asked to pay their share of state operating costs
