House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher picked up another superdelegate endorsement today, this time from State Sen. Ron Latz (D-St. Louis Park). Latz previously supported Steve Kelley, who preceded him in his SD44 seat prior to 2007 and ran unsuccessfully for the DFL gubernatorial endorsement this year.
Latz represents superdelegate #46 for MAK, whose base of support among her elected colleagues is a formidable advantage over the other candidates, none of whom has anywhere near that many automatic endorsement votes.
I told a commenter recently that I would put together a standalone page containing the complete delegate chase picture, combining the Superdelegate tracker and our frequent pledged delegate updates -- guess it's time to catch up on that promise.
The campaign that builds excitement is going to win. I think MAK has the best technical direction. MAK people have picked up on entering many subcaucuses to build a perception of huge support. (Expect 50 subcaucuses at conventions this weekend, as other campaigns follow suit.) I think Rybak has the best spirit and political theater. I saw that Ryback group doing the wave yesterday in subcaucuses. Rybak supporters left energized and happy.
Approximately 300 more DFL state convention delegates were elected this weekend -- so where does the gubernatorial endorsement race stand?
First, standard caveats apply: 970 delegates have been elected so far, and we have conventions that add up to 913. Of those 913, we have results covering 843.5 -- this means our results are not complete. That being said, they are complete enough to get a good idea of where things stand -- just not an exact one.
With that said, on to the totals:
Gubernatorial pledged delegates Uncommitted: 369
R.T. Rybak: 143.5
MAK: 137.5
Paul Thissen: 58.5
John Marty: 49
Tom Rukavina: 41
Matt Entenza: 25
Tom Bakk: 20
The full spreadsheet is posted below. Highlights from the weekend:
R.T Rybak obviously had a very solid weekend, going from about three delegates down to six delegates up in our count. The spreadsheet bears this out -- although Margaret Anderson Kelliher kept up her solid gains and is still comfortably in the overall lead due to superdelegate endorsements, Rybak had a very good day in the west metro suburbs and in Olmstead County, where he appears to have picked up 8 (!) delegates.
Nevertheless, MAK is still in the lead overall, and will likely lead on the first ballot in April. If you factor in the superdelegate endorsements we already know of, and accept Team MAK's claims that fifty more are waiting in the wings, she already has about 17% of the first ballot racked up. Figure in at least a strong portion of the uncommitted delegates to date, and she's approaching 30% already, which will be tough for anyone to beat.
John Marty had a great weekend too, making significant gains in pledged delegates in places like Rice and Itasca counties. He stopped by SD42 briefly during subcaucusing, and we chatted for a minute, during which I expressed my sincere appreciation for his engagement with the MPP community.
Paul Thissen stalled out a little bit in the suburban conventions. His wonderful wife Karen spoke on his behalf at several events on Saturday, but there's a pretty big gap in his section of the spreadsheet in the recent conventions. He'll have support at the convention, but right now he's closer to the second tier than he is to the first.
Props to the members of the Bakk/Choi subcaucus. Certain nomination for Best Subcaucus Name of 2010.
Renew.mn is going to be a player one way or the other. Do they endorse MAK after the first ballot and nip the floor fight in the bud? Do they move toward R.T. Rybak or Paul Thissen and oppose the probable first-ballot leader? Only the ReNew.MN delegates know...and there are quite a few of them.
I'll have an update on the three competitive congressional endorsement races either later today or tomorrow morning. Here's the full spreadsheet -- as always, if you see discrepancies or districts where we're missing delegate totals, help us complete the puzzle. This little project has only gotten to where it is because of the efforts of the entire MPP community, and that's how it will continue to be right through the DFL state convention.
As promised, we've gotten what appear to be accurate reports from Sunday's conventions, and also knocked a couple of previous conventions off the board (Blue Earth CU, Morrison CU, Lac Qui Parle CU). We've also corrected a 1-delegate discrepancy from SD60, and thanks are due to the eagle-eyed Marty supporter who caught it.
The updated totals:
Candidate
Pledged Delegates
Uncommitted
195
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
77.5
R.T. Rybak
72
Paul Thissen
47
Tom Rukavina
28
John Marty
25
Tom Bakk
13.5
Matt Entenza
4
As noted previously, Uncommitted is winning, although there are definitely "hidden" delegates (those actually supporting one candidate or another) in that big total. As also previously noted, Paul Thissen's total here is a bit inflated due to several counties where his are the only results so far -- although Morrison was one of those until we completed it last night.
Updated grid is below. We're now at 86% coverage -- hopefully we can cover about ten of the remaining fourteen percent by the next round of conventions this weekend.
Wild Weekend was...well, wild. More than 500 of 1200 eventual delegates have now been selected -- and we're tracking 77% (415) of those delegates right here.
Of those 415 we now have tracked, here are the totals:
Candidate
Pledged Delegates
Uncommitted
176
Margaret Anderson Kelliher
71.5
R.T. Rybak
65.5
Paul Thissen
43.5
Tom Rukavina
26
John Marty
22
Tom Bakk
7.5
Matt Entenza
2
A few general notes about these totals:
In the screenshot below, you'll see where the discrepancies are -- we did extremely well this weekend tracking the Senate District conventions, but we're still missing totals from several County Unit conventions -- if you were at one or know someone who was and can get us accurate totals, let us know
I know for a fact we're missing a few Entenza delegates, but I simply have not been able to get first-hand reports from those conventions (Nobles County, in particular). So his totals are a tad low.
Similarly, because the reports I got from several of last weekend's conventions were from a Thissen supporter (whom I have no reason to believe isn't being accurate with Thissen's totals), his strong third-place showing right now is likely a bit inflated, as we're missing the rest of the delegates from those conventions. HOWEVER, it is clear that Thissen is doing quite well in rural delegate elections given his metro base (witness his strong performance in his home district of SD63).
The other item of note now that we have considerable totals under our belts is the ReNew.mn factor. Technically, the basic "Uncommitted/Renew.mn" subcaucus is uncommitted in the gubernatorial race. In the purest sense that's true; in reality those delegates (at least 24 of them so far) are probably only going to vote for Rybak, Paul Thissen, or MAK -- in that order -- when push comes to shove in Duluth. Also witness that the only named subcaucuses that include ReNew.mn's name are for those three candidates.
It's not against any rules, but we've heard that a few people here and there have been a bit miffed at the organization calling its delegates "uncommitted." On the other hand, they're an advocacy group, and they're doing a good job of pushing their values through the endorsement process. YMMV, as it's said.
A future post will focus on the congressional campaign breakouts -- some interesting items in there as well.
Here's that full spreadsheet -- discrepancies are color-coded at the bottom. A big thanks to the MPP community for helping make this happen -- we're all looking forward to next week's conventions for more of the same!
Quick report from The Big E, who's in the midst of walking subcaucus fun as we speak: Marion Greene defeated Katie Hatt for the DFL endorsement in House District 60A. This seat is being vacated by Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, who's running for Governor (in case you haven't been reading along).
The endorsement fight didn't last long; Hatt conceded before the first ballot was revealed. As it turned out, Greene won 64%. All things being equal, Greene will be the next State Rep. from 60A.
What has happened to the Democratic Party of Paul Wellstone? Where have all of the truly bold and visionary progressives gone? Are they hiding under a rock or does the Party Machine not let their voices be heard via the corporate media lest they piss off the corporate sponsors of the Democratic Party? Yes, that is correct, I said Corporate Sponsors of the Democratic Party. After reading the following article, http://www.salon.com/news/opin... I must say it only reinforces the beliefs I have had for the last 12 months.
The Democrats don't care about their base unless it is 9 months before the next election. Then, on cue, they start up with the populist and "working families" rhetoric. After the election is over and they have won, it is right back to "business as usual". They slide up to the lobbyists and continue to do the work of Big Business all the while giving us patronizing quips, gentle pats on the head, and nice, warm fuzzies.
Take, for example, the recent Al Franken rally in Minneapolis. The room was packed and people were cheering for a bill that FORCES PEOPLE TO BUY A PRODUCT THAT IS SO BAD, THE GOVERNMENT HAS TO FORCE PEOPLE TO BUY IT. Unfortunately, it is sadly ironic and masochistic. I am sure there were quite a few people who were questioning the bill, as am I, but you could tell the MoveOn.org, SEIU, HealthCareForAmericaNOW, TakeActionMN, and OFA people were all boldly and vigorously cheering for not only Al Franken but also the bill that the President and Congress will eventually pass.
How is that possible? Why have we, the people of the Democratic Party, become so gullible and misinformed that we are willing to become slaves to the medical insurance industry. If you question that statement, I ask you; what other option is there in the president's plan? How else do I obtain medical insurance except through a private medical insurance company?
I truly believe that if President Bush was offering this very plan the Democratic faithful would be up in arms and frothing at the mouth. However, since someone from our party is in power and is offering the plan, we sit back quietly and say while nodding our head, they must know better.
Bullshit! They don't know better because the facts show that they have sold us out for the campaign contributions by the medical insurance industry, the pharmaceutical industry, the medical device industry, and almost every other sector of health care. I can't believe I just said that. The Democratic Party has sold out the working people for Big Business. Disgusting and pathetic!
Therefore, I forewarn you with great respect and remorse before this legislation becomes law. KILL THE HEALTHCARE REFORM BILL!! KILL THE BILL!! Otherwise, the Democratic Party will no longer be the party of the People. Instead, they will join with the Republicans and be the party for the Power.
Here's what's happened so far on this year's bonding bill:
Tim Pawlenty puts out a version of the bill he'd like to see. It's relatively small, and not very bold despite interest rates being low and bonds for construction projects that would put people back to work being available cheaply.
Who cares what Pawlenty thinks? He's not a legislator. Rightfully, the Legislature, under the leadership of the Senate Majority Leader and the House Speaker, put together a bonding bill that's about 40% larger than Pawlenty's proposal.
Before it passes, Pawlenty says he won't sign it.
The Legislature passes it anyway
Pawlenty vetoes it
The Legislature's leaders run away, send the bill back to the State Senate, with some mumbled statements about "sitting down with Pawlenty to find common ground."
The bonding bill is NOT like the GAMC extension. There is no moral cudgel to use against Pawlenty when he vetoes a bill focused on issuing bonds and funding construction projects. And when Pawlenty vetoes the bill, you can be pretty darned sure he knows going in that the DFL wouldn't have the votes to override that veto.
If the legislative leadership had instead done the following, what do you think could have happened?
Before any votes are taken on final passage, Pawlenty threatens to veto.
DFL leadership threatens right back to override Pawlenty's veto, and takes the case for the bonding bill public with a quick PR blitz
In the ensuing standoff, THEN the DFL offers to sit down with Pawlenty to find common ground -- BEFORE any votes are taken.
I'm thinking it would have the following effects:
You look good to the base for standing up to the Governor.
You have an even chance of Pawlenty actually sitting down to compromise on some things.
You might even get the bill passed.
Obviously, one solution to the quandary in which the DFL's overwhelming legislative majorities find themselves is to elect a DFL governor. That would certainly make this whole governing thing easier. In the interim, however, leadership needs to learn a thing or two about basic game theory and how to apply it in a political setting.
It's. Not. Difficult.
Update: Pawlenty has not yet vetoed the bill -- it was passed but then sent back to the Senate for rework. I misheard the report on this morning's news on that point. However, the criticism still stands -- why were the passage votes taken if a certain veto was waiting?
I'll update the exact numbers as soon as I make sure I have all the gubernatorial/congressional breakouts correct, as well as ensuring that reNew.MN's delegate election efforts have been correctly accounted for (candidate/reNew.MN vs. straight-up reNew.MN subcaucuses, etc).
These totals are approximate...
Uncommitted: 43+
Rybak: 20
MAK: 16
Marty: 5
Thissen: 4
Rukavina: 4
Bakk: 1
Expect a couple more delegates to be added to these totals once I get additional numbers. But the bottom line in the early conventions seems clear: it's becoming a two-horse race pretty quickly among committed delegates, with Rybak and Margaret Anderson Kelliher running about even. MAK's campaign has laid claim to several uncommitted delegates, as has Rybak's, but MAK also has a big advantage in superdelegate support.
One curious feature of the early conventions has been Rybak's plus performance in suburban and rural areas -- more on that along with exact numbers this evening.
House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher has picked up two more endorsements from her colleagues in the State House: State Sen. Linda Berglin and State Rep. Steve Simon.
"In all the tough battles at the Capitol, Margaret has been a calm voice of reason, and has a track record of success," said Simon, "I know that her leadership will inspire the real change our state needs."
Sen. Berglin was first elected to her Minneapolis district in the House in 1972, and in the Senate in 1980. She chairs the Senate Finance Committee's Health and Human Services Budget Division. Rep. Simon was elected to his House district in 2004 and serves as an Assistant Majority Leader.
Although I'm generally reluctant to project the value of these personal endorsements on the delegate base at local conventions, Simon brings a lot of popularity in the southwest metro (St. Louis Park, Edina, Minnetonka, Eden Prairie) among party regulars. Obviously, this announcement also represents two more votes for MAK at the state convention in April, bringing her tally up to 45.
This past Friday, Almanac featured the two top finishers in last week's DFL preference ballot, R.T. Rybak and Margaret Anderson Kelliher. During that show, Rybak and Kelliher did little to encourage any other candidates into the top tier -- a heads-up race sounds like it's just fine with both candidates.
Contrasts were on display during Friday's Almanac, and so are parallels to the 2008 Democratic presidential contest. Those parallels go way beyond the candidates' genders.
No, Rybak-as-Obama and MAK-as-Clinton isn't just a matter of gubernatorial candidates sharing their presidential doppelgangers' chromosomal patterns. It goes to their approaches on the stump and their apparent strategies for winning the party's endorsement in April.
(Now I don't know if a person who still thinks the Vikings are going to win can be trusted with political advice. However, I have been pondering the advantages of Tom Rukavina as a running mate, who manages to make even non-supporters laugh and enjoy his company. - promoted by Grace Kelly)
As I bide time before the start of the Super Bowl I give you this NFL metaphor for the Minnesota DFL gubernatorial candidates as the county conventions and April state convention approach. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, the winner of the Feb. 2 straw vote, and House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, a very close second in the straw vote, control their own destinies. The only way one of these two are not the DFL endorsed candidate is if both of them flame out at the local conventions or destroy one another. We live in Minnesota, home of the Vikings, and we're talking about Democrats, which means that both of these things are possible.
So Rybak and Kelliher are the front runners. Every other candidate still has a chance but, in football commentator vernacular, they need some help. Matt Entenza has the ability to increase his payroll and marketing to help himself. John Marty, Tom Rukavina and Paul Thissen all need external help to some degree; Tom Bakk and Susan Gaertner need it to a larger degree. In most cases, this means that each of these candidates needs one or more specific other candidates to falter and drop before the first ballot of the state convention. Meantime, Mark Dayton, who's waiting for the primary, represents the metaphorical New Orleans Saints in the NFC championship game. The endorsed candidate could beat him. No really, they could. (Run it, Favre. RUN IT!) Don't read too much into the direct football to candidate parallels. I'm just imagining the "what ifs" for the Vikings this year.
Who will Minnesota's next governor be? We'll assume and hope that it will be a DFLer. There are a lot of candidates. Which one should we vote for? How do voters choose?
Many voters choose a name on the ballot at random. We've all done this at some point over the years, especially when we see a list of judges or county attorneys on the ballot. Most people have no idea who these candidates are. Some voters choose a name that sounds good to them or is vaguely familiar. Others may choose by gender. Some will choose a female just for the sake of having more females in office.
Others choose a name that they recognize. The more recognizable the candidate's name is, the better the chances of getting elected. In this year's gubernatorial race, the two top candidates for name recognition, at least so far, are Mark Dayton and R. T. Rybak.
Some voters actually research the candidates' stand on various issues. Others abide by the party's endorsement or by the endorsement of their union or other organization. Others will vote for their legislator who happens to be running for governor.
Many others vote on personalities. Jesse Ventura had a personality that was unforgettable. Skip Humphrey didn't. Norm Coleman might have had but his mudslinging alienated voters.
Finally, voters vote for a candidate they resonate with. They want a candidate they have something in common with. If they think a particular candidate is nothing at all like them, they probably won't vote for that person.
So ... many of us went to our DFL caucus last night. Many of because we want a DFLer to be our next Governor. So what? Well there are many implications going forward in the Minnesota Governor's race (MN-GOV), mainly for the RT Rybak and Margaret Anderson-Kelliher campaigns -- the race is wide open for them to win or lose. All campaigns will be working hard to get some delegates elected from the upcoming Senate District conventions.
Will John Marty, Paul Thissen and Tom Rukavina be able to get enough delegates together to get the 7-9% that their straw poll results indicate they might pull?
Obviously, the Rybak and MAK campaigns will more than likely go into the state conventions with 20% to maybe even 25% of the delegates committed to them. But what about the rest?
Any delegates Tom Bakk, Matt Entenza, Susan Gaertner and Steve Kelley elect will have choices after their candidates are dropped on the first ballot.
House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher is announcing this morning that she has won the support of two more elected officials (and thus superdelegates to the DFL state convention) in her gubernatorial bid: State Sen. Ellen Anderson (D-St. Paul) and State Rep. Karen Clark (D-Mpls.)
"Margaret is the candidate best positioned to win this race, and to lead our state into the future," Anderson said. "She has an inclusive, welcoming style of leadership and will be a powerful voice for Minnesotans. I'm proud to support her efforts in this race for governor."
"In this important election, Margaret understands the social justice, and the environmental health and economic justice issues that are important for all of our communities," Clark said.
This announcement comes on the heels of the TakeActionMN poll, which gave Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak a boost heading into the precinct caucuses tomorrow. Although the timing of the TakeAction announcement means they won't have a lot of time to mobilize their members for tomorrow's event, it will mean they'll be on the ground between caucuses and the convention looking to influence delegate elections and the overall course of the endorsement race.
Things are going to get interesting, starting tomorrow.
The Superdelegate Tracker has been updated, showing MAK leading the way with 43 superdelegate votes.
