Ladies and Gentlemen, yours truly - the ol' TwoPutter - is Guest Hosting tonight's Wednesday Edition of "Minnesota Matters" on AM-950 KTNF, The Voice of Minnesota! And we're going to have two very special guests in studio - Toni Backdahl, the State Coordinator for the Minnesota Tea Party Patriots, and LTC(Ret.) Joe Repya, who recently suspended his bid for Governor under the Independence Party banner.
The Listener Call-In Number is 952-946-6205, or, if you have a question you'd like me to ask of either Ms. Backdahl or Colonel Repya, submit it below in the comments section!
So, again, tune in the radio today to AM-950, or listen live on your computer, here.
Even though the winner is not yet certified, I think we have enough information to begin breaking down what happened and why.
When looking to make comparisons I think it is more appropriate to compare last year's Senate race to the 2006 Governor's race than to the 2006 Senate race. The dynamics between the 2008 Senate and 2006 Governors race are similar while the dynamics of the two Senate races are quite different. First of all the 2006 Senate race was for an open seat previously held by the DFL and the race featured a successful, dynamic and generally well liked woman against a generic GOP white male. In both the 2006 Governor's race and the 2008 Senate race we had a GOP incumbent running against a white male DLFer.
Yes, 61% say Mark Ritchie is doing a good job. Yes, 58% say the process has been fair to both candidates. But check out this number:
If another election for U.S. Senate was held again today who would you vote for? Dean Barkley? Norm Coleman? Or Al Franken?
Norm Coleman: 41
Al Franken: 40
Dean Barkley: 15
Not Sure: 3
Assuming that SurveyUSA's numbers are generally accurate, this means that despite foreknowledge that the real race between Franken and Coleman was going down to the thinnest and most tenuous of wires, almost everyone who voted for Dean Barkley on Nov. 4th would still do so today.
Yeesh. Maybe this is a sign that the electorate is still deadlocked in its opinions on this race. Or maybe there's something deeper here, which we've addressed a few times since Election Day: telling people "you're throwing your vote away by voting IP!" is simply not good enough.
Rasmussen has been one of the more stable pollsters this cycle, and with a pretty neutral set of results, partisanship-wise, but this one is a bit noisy. As Jeff correctly posits below, there's just no reason for this much movement among women this late in the game. Especially considering how stable Rasmussen's results have been in this race and how far out of whack it is with other recent results (including Rasmussen's), I have to chalk this one up to statistical noise.
Here's the current trend graph (click for the full-size version):
Dean Barkley may be beginning to tail off as we approach Election Day, but as SurveyUSA said of the Third district race earlier today, the Senate race is a jump-ball right now.
That yields the trendlines seen here (click for the full-size version:
First one to 42 wins this one, folks. Rasmussen's numbers have been surprisingly stable, both before and after IP candidate Dean Barkley's entrance into the race. Compared to their previous result, Franken is down two points and both Coleman and Barkley are stable at 37 and 17 respectively, but those two points are well within the range of statistical noise, especially when considering this result's place fit with other previous results. In the 5-poll running average, Coleman is down four tenths of a point and Barkley has dropped six tenths while Franken has remained steady at 40.
Not much to say about this one, other than that it fits right in with the recent trend. Here's the updated graph along with recent numbers:
My sentiments from a couple of days ago remain unchanged -- Dean Barkley has stalled at 18 percent, while Norm Coleman trails Al Franken by a little over two points. The Star Tribune noted today that Barkley's support may be shallow -- however, their support for that statement wasn't all that great, so your mileage may vary.
If these numbers hold, Franken needs to merely split the few remaining undecided voters with Norm Coleman -- a proposition that, given the current toxic environment for anyone with an (R) after their name, is not a difficult proposition to foresee -- to win a clear victory in two weeks.
The Republican Party, the Coleman campaign, and their allies have ramped up their attacks lately. But not against Democratic opponent Al Franken, who's leading in the latest polls -- rather, they've been attacking Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley.
And with good reason -- they may be sleazy, but they're not stupid. They can read a trendline as easily as you or I can. Take a look at the recent poll trends -- it's a little difficult to see because of the mass of recent polls, so I've reduced the size of the poll markers and added some highlights for visibility (Click on the graph for the full-size version):
That orange line represents the end of September -- the point at which Dean Barkley's poll numbers started a spike from around 10 up to around 18 points, and Norm Coleman's numbers started to slide from around 45 to about 38 where he now stands. Meanwhile, Al Franken dipped a bit but is still right where he stood before the Barkley effect, at about 41 points.
The conclusion that might be drawn from this is two-fold:
Al Franken has endured some very bad press, withering attacks from Republican officials, their front groups, and their allies -- and these attacks have done little to affect Franken's poll numbers in a negative way.
Franken's attacks on Coleman's records may not have pulled soft Coleman voters into his column, but they've succeeded in driving them out of Coleman's -- they may not like Franken any more, but they seem to have decided that they just can't stomach a vote for Norm Coleman. With an third-party candidate in the race, that's just as good.
So it's no small wonder that Coleman and his allies are attacking Barkley for his past work -- they've tried and failed to do the same against the opponent with the best (and strong) chance of defeating Coleman.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos:
Franken 41
Coleman 39
Barkley 18
SurveyUSA for KSTP:
Franken 39
Coleman 41
Barkley 18
Here's the current trend graph showing Franken up over 40% in the five poll running average, and Coleman sitting at 38:
And the raw numbers since Dean Barkley showed up in the polls (at right):
Barkley has stalled just under 20% -- looks like that's about where he'll finish. The question is where the remaining undecideds -- about 8 points worth -- will go. Generally undecided voters in a two-way race break for the challenger about 2:1, but in a three-way race, that calculus may not necessarily still work. However, if Barkley does pick up 18% on election day, Franken will need to pick up about 45% of the remaining undecideds to win a clear victory (i.e., more than a 1.5% spread)
Note that no points are offered on why Franken or Barkley necessarily won -- just how Coleman lost. This point started showing up last night in Franken campaign spin on the debate overnight, and is being confirmed by the traditional media, here by WCCO's Esme Murphy. Check it out:
Anyone who has been involved in a school yard fight knows the old rule, 2 against 1 will win every time. At tonight's debate Norm Coleman sat literally in the middle of Independent candidate Dean Barkley and Democrat Al Franken. He was eviscerated by both men.
The most devastating moment came when one of the moderators asked, "What do you think is the greatest threat to our country"? The moderator went on to say it could be any threat, not just of the military kind. Al Franken went first and said the biggest threat was Al Qaeda, and that the Bush administration had squandered the past eight years pursuing the war in Iraq, instead of pursuing Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. At the end of his comments Franken ripped into Coleman for his support of President Bush's policy in Iraq.
Then came Dean Barkley. He said the greatest threat was the skyrocketing national debt. He lashed into Coleman saying "this happened on your watch". Barkley's comments echoed a recurring theme by Franken tonight, that President Bush had inherited the largest surplus in US history and was leaving office with the largest deficit.
Then it was Norm Coleman's turn. Coleman said the biggest threat to our country was the "partisan divide" in Washington. Huh? Yes it is a terrible problem, but Coleman kept repeating this line over and over again throughout the evening. Is that really the single greatest threat facing our country?
It takes a lot for the word "eviscerated" to appear in debate roundups. And it's worth noting that Coleman did go last on this question, and two of the biggest threats to America's future were already taken. Looking like a Johnny-come-lately is a tough thing to stomach, and Coleman had the bad luck to go last. However...
--nuclear proliferation?
--biological/chemical warfare?
--poverty?
--government corruption?
--Threats to the Constitution?
As Murphy notes, the partisan divide can be an issue in Washington...sometimes. Sometimes not. When it is, shouldn't at least one or two of the issues above come before it? Plenty of choices were before Coleman, and he stuck to his "I get things done across party lines" talking point.
It's been a while since I've looked at the polling trends in the U.S. Senate race between Norm Coleman, Al Franken, and now Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley. So, courtesy of Pollster.com, I've backfilled the poll graph to see what's going on:
Despite a tough couple of months in the media earlier this year for Al Franken, this is an extremely tight race. While his numbers have stabilized a bit north of 40%, since mid-June he's managed to pull Norm Coleman's numbers right into that area as well.
The graph also now shows the role Dean Barkley may or may not play. A couple of polls put him around 3%, a couple put him around 14. Despite my colleague Chris Truscott's role working for Barkley, I'm leaning toward predicting an outcome closer to the 3 side. As November 4th approaches, voters are going to be more and more mindful of the stakes in this election, and are not going to as willing torisk throwing a vote away as they may have in the past for Jesse Ventura, Tim Penny, or Peter Hutchinson.
But who knows; I've been wrong before. It's worth noting that while Rasmussen has consistently shown a tight race between Franken and Coleman, SurveyUSA's numbers have tightened considerably as well.
If a former governor won't run against Norm Coleman and Al Franken, a former senator will have to do.
With former Gov. Jesse Ventura, IP-Minn., ruling out a run for Senate, former Sen. Dean Barkley, IP-Minn., will seek the Independence Party endorsement to run against Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., and DFL challenger Al Franken. In an interview with MinnPost, Barkley said, "I'm not Jesse, but I have the same passion."
(I doubt the DFL will back off and let an IPer have a two-way race. Running candidates is sort of what major parties do. However, still an interesting factor. - promoted by MNCampaignReport)
Calling the 6th District "tailor-made for an independent," former Sen. Dean Barkley confirmed he's considering a run for the congressional seat now held by Republican Michele Bachmann.
In an interview with Minnesota Monitor, Barkley said he has been approached by Democrats in the 6th about challenging the first-year representative.
"A number of Democrats have approached me," said Barkley, who was appointed by to the U.S. Senate in 2002 after the death of Paul Wellstone. "That district is tailor-made for an independent. Jesse Ventura did very well there. A well-financed independent in a two-way race would have a good chance."
Barkley added that he would not run as a DFLer, but might run as an Independence Party candidate if the DFL decided not to field a candidate. "In a three-way race, I think Michele Bachmann probably wins. I'm not interested in running just to run -- I've done that three times -- but if I thought I had a chance to go back to the 'evil empire' and fight the special interests, I would consider that. So I'll continue to meet with them, and I am thinking about it."
Barkley, 56, said he is motivated by issues that he said are being "swept under the rug."
"I went back and looked at my debate tapes from 1992,'' said Barkley, referring to his first congressional run in the 6th. "Issues have not changed one bit. It's the same, whether it's deficits or Social Security and Medicare or health care. It's all the same. I could take my stump speech from '92 and use it again," he said.
Whether or not he runs in 2008, Barkley says the war in Iraq will be the key issue.
