State Republican Deputy Chair Michael Brodkorb, "former blogger", loses patience with blogger questions.
Brodkorb with his faithful Mark Dayton tracker took the podium after a press conference with Twin City Mayors, DNC chair Tim Kaine and Mark. Link to press conference: http://theuptake.org/2010/09/0...
Soren Sorenson, peace activist and blogger tried to follow up with Bodkorb; not much accomplished.
(Excellent interviews with Tarryl Clark and Jim Meffert. - promoted by TwoPuttTommy)
Today, Bill Prendergast launches a thoughtfully alarming perspective from a Michael Tomaski column on the fear that seems to be taming the Democratic mule; the glut of conservative and conservative crazy media and the nation's economic malaise.
I doubt that Plato Avenue DFL brass are scheming with a bunker mentality (I know number of Democrats who are) but their two most potent congressional challengers, Tarryl Clark (CD6) and Jim Meffert (CD3) show no fear at all.
They are strong, tell-it-like-it-is candidates. They are motivators who have shucked the "Minnesota Nice" political procedurals in their respective takes on Michelle Bachmann and Bachmann's buttoned-down soul mate Eric Paulsen. Meffert and Clark are impassioned and honest candidates with media appeal and moxie. In its small way, DFL Senate District 42 (Eden Prairie and Minnetonka) is getting that message out on cable television and the Democratic Visions Channel on YouTube - regional television has ignored these two. So, check out these YouTubes:
See them on MTN Channel 17 Sundays at 7 pm and on Comcast Channel 15 (Eden Prairie, Richfield, Hopkins, Edina and Mtka) Wednesdays at 5:30 pm and Sundays at 9 p.m. and Bloomington Cable Ch. 16 on Tues at 2:00 p.m. & 10:00 p.m. and Wed at 2:00 p.m.
Whenever I meet these two, the Democratic Mule in me starts bucking and kicking with gusto and purpose. Our timid local progressives need to join MPP and a few others in some loud snorting, braying and kicking -- Meffert and Clark have earned a stampede of media support to carry them to Washington.
While I have worked at the highest level of our party, across many campaigns for both issues and candidates, this is the first time that I have contributed all of my volunteer efforts for one candidate - Matt Bostrom for Sheriff. My colleagues have urged me to give you an inside look at what that kind of volunteering is like.
In this volunteering, the most important feeling comes from this campaign being a most important cause - a cause worthy of dedicated volunteer effort. Matt Bostrom is that type of candidate. We needed a candidate with a great record that the opponent would have no traction on attacking. Matt Bostrom has 28 years of experience with the St Paul police in multiple leadership roles, with great projects and great awards. For example, Matt Bostrom won the 2009 Preparedness Award by the Association of Minnesota Emergency Responders his organizational skills and demonstrated fiscal responsibility. In addition to being a great police officer, Matt Bostrom has great speaking skills and the ability to talk to everyone. And most importantly for me as a progressive, Matt Bostrom has great character and integrity.
In high contrast, our incumbent opponent Bob Fletcher has over 16 years of experience, with a record that should remove anyone from office, which I summarized from news sources. Bob Fetcher's pet project, the Metro Gang Force, that he touted on his campaign for years, was so bad that it was disbanded. His management of the jail is so bad that a young person died from not receiving insulin medication when the mother had personally brought the medicine to the jail and explained how important it was. Bob Fletcher sued the county government so he would have the privilege of over spending his budget as much as he wants, which he does. But the whole truth is worse, much worse. As a known citizen journalist, people come to tell me stories about Bob Fletcher that they are not willing to go public with - just so someone knows. What is publicly published is only the tip of the iceberg. There is huge dam of information waiting to break. This knowledge makes this campaign, a peace and justice mission of the highest importance. We should have never allowed this to happen here in Ramsey county. So everyone on this campaign has this sense of an important mission.
The reason that Bob Fletcher is able to get away with so much is that the sheriff is a low visibility office, which the media ignores. In fact, Bob has cultivated the media with favors so his press releases are not critically examined. Those press releases are frequently re-published as news articles. This year, news staffs are cut so deeply that only the governor's race is getting coverage. So the only people who really know about Bob Fletcher's record are active in local government and local politics or follow local politics closely. And in this case, the incumbent is so bad, that it has motivated people from both parties, DFL and GOP, to work together. It has attracted people who do not care about any other campaign or any other politics, over 120 endorsements so far. We have dedicated peace advocates working with dedicated gun-carry advocates. Never before have I seen such a diversity of political causes and views on one campaign.
Now for the best part, after the fold are some personal stories based on the diversity of the campaign.
Following up on What went wrong with Margaret's campaign, what about the other two? Like I said in the piece about the MAK campaign, I devoted the most pixels to that campaign because it's the one I volunteered for and knew best, but Dayton's is even more important to look at right now because it's the going concern rather than useful lessons for the future. Yes, we want to get better at this long-term, but right now, I really really really want to win the election for governor (next up in what makes me unique: I breathe oxygen).
I'm applying my own advice to get past the assumption that the winner did everything right and losers did everything wrong. Even a distant third place campaign might have done something right.
So on that note I'll take Matt Entenza first, and it seems from outside (those of you who were inside the campaigns will I hope chime in with corrections and details, and likewise Dayton supporters) that the Entenza campaign did a whole lot right. I'm going to look at two things most worthy of notice.
TwoPuttTommy suggested an after action report, like was routine when he in the service, and I agreed with the concept. I just didn't agree with the timing, the morning after the election. With results just in and reactions raw, it seemed a bit like starting the after action report as soon as you stick your head up out of your foxhole. Now however, it's been a few days, and hopefully heads are clearer and more facts are at hand. It's possible none of us have changed our minds from Wednesday, and I'll admit that my opinion of the core error in the campaign hasn't since I formed it even before election day.
From what I observed, there was one problem from which others flowed, one that might have changed the result.
What I do find weird is I haven't seen it stated anywhere else. I've seen it hinted at, and smaller mistakes identified that struck me as too little to account for the loss. Margaret's supporters, me included, point out that she was up against two wealthy candidates, one with huge name recognition, but that doesn't explain the mistake, just the disadvantages she was up against.
Critics of the endorsement pounced of course, but the endorsement process had nothing to do with how the campaign was run, nor did it hurt her. In fact, without the endorsement, and with the same disadvantages, Margaret would have been a minor candidate. The endorsement is why she nearly pulled off a huge upset, which indicates it's pretty potent; more potent, I suggest, than when Dayton defeated the endorsee for senator in 2000. It's possible the endorsement is the only way a non-millionaire candidate can run statewide, at least if a millionaire is among the candidates.
Let's also be aware of what makes up the box we're trying to think our way out of.
Time for shakeup? The DFL high command appears to have a high powered rifle used every four years to shoot the party in the foot. I was a delegate to the state DFL Convention four years ago and watched the insiders push Mike Hatch through the endorsement. The people's choice was Steve Kelley and had he been endorsed I doubt that we would be whining about Timmy today.
This spring the state DFL insiders pushed MAK through the endorsement slot. Had RT been the endorsed candidate we would have a quite different landscape today. It was discouraging at the convention to see all the insiders working round the clock to protect MAK.
Either of these endorsees would be a super governor, but the party left the prize horse securely locked in the stable both times.
Since Mark Dayton won the primary against the best efforts of the DFL, I was wondering about if and how the Dayton campaign would use one particular tool the DFL has at it's disposal -- the Coordinated Campaign. The CC is both a powerful tool and often maligned. It's organized so that the top of the ticket helps the down ticket races.
Dayton Campaign Manager Dana Anderson said that they would be using the CC.
"We are looking forward to working with the Coordinated Campaign to elect the entire DFL ticket," Anderson said. "However, we cannot comment on specifics until we have had a chance to sit down with Brian Melendez and other DFL Party leaders to discuss."
I was curious because I've heard plenty of stories about the '08 campaign and Ciresi people in the CC. The CC in '08 was pretty much a disaster. I'm hoping and praying things go better this year as I really, really, really, really wanna win the Governor's race.
Yes, that's correct: subtract MAK's 39.93 from 100 (with 98% reporting), and the vaunted DFL Endorsement Process got spanked. Badly. Deservedly? I think so. And while that's not likely to win me many friends over at Plato Avenue, it's not like I have a lot over there anyway. So, I'll go ahead and say it - even though as a rule, I don't rip those in the DFL tent. Why should I? MudSlingerMike And His Minions do it all the time (even though they're usually just makin' sh*t up). But, real journalists (I make no claims to be 'journalist' - I'm a 'pundit' and there's a BIG difference) like Bob Collins over on Minnesota Public Radio are calling it like they see it, so in this post I will too. Back to Bob over at MPR:
People who vote on Primary Day in August are more likely to be the most engaged, often activist party members. That's what makes Sen. Mark Dayton's win over DFL-endorsed Margaret Anderson Kelliher more shocking. There are plenty of campaigns and political careers in tatters today, but the value of a DFL endorsement is -- at least for now -- on the trash heap of history. And someone's going to pay.
Indeed. Because someone (actually, a bunch) SHOULD pay; whether that actually happens remains to be seen. And that's just in MN-GOV; for instance, there's probably plenty of quotes - with language unprintable here at your family-friendly MPP - about the "value" of a DFL Endorsement from Team Powers down in CD-02, but: that's a tangent with different dynamics. I'm going to focus on MN-GOV (for now). Before that, I highly recommend MPP's dedicated readers go read this. Now. Bob Collins is writing nothing there that a lot of insiders have been muttering about for quite a while. My take? There should be resignations in a pile over at Plato Avenue - with Andy O'Leary's at the top.
Remember, Andy was "in charge" when the infamous "Grandma Learning English" YouTube was imbedded in an email blast to the DFL's media list.
Oops!!! In the subsequent search for the guilty, there was an attempted punishment of an innocent....
And while some may have forgotten 'bout that "oops!" (or, wish they could), I'm sure MudSlingerMike And His Minions haven't; that's one they won't have to make up.
So, what's transpired since then? Oh, a couple of Sample Ballot SNAFU's and other "minor" mistakes...
But, rather than dwell on that, let's go back to Duluth, in April:
The results are (almost) in, and they're clear: You, as a community, are awesome.
Tallies (with 98% of precincts reporting):
Candidate
Actual
Avg. Pred.
Error
Dayton
41.13%
39.93%
0.24
Kelliher
39.93%
39.51%
0.42
Entenza
18.99%
18.23%
0.76
According to the scoring rules for our contest, that's a total error of 1.41 -- as a group, you absolutely nailed this election. Average predicted turnout was 367,601, which is a bit lower than the actual 437,571 which have been counted so far, but I won't hold that against you.
And drumroll please....our winner of fabulous prizes is....
dgerber, who predicted a final outcome as follows:
Candidate
Actual
dgerber
Error
Dayton
41.13%
39.80%
1.33
Kelliher
39.93%
39.90%
0.03
Entenza
18.99%
20.30%
2.07
A smidge high on Entenza, but dgerber nailed MAK's result closer than anyone else, and had a total error of just 3.43. Honorable mentions go to Iams712 whose Dayton prediction of 41.25% was within 0.12 of the final result, TonyAngelo who pegged Entenza at 18.25, and TonyAngelo again for his turnout prediction of 446,887, just 2,429 votes over where we currently stand (and likely to get closer as the final, final results come in.
Congrats to our winner and thanks to everyone who participated!
It's 6:10 AM -- do you know where your DFL primary results are?
WCCO now shows 98% of precincts reporting:
Mark Dayton 179,969
Margaret Kelliher 174,743
Matt Entenza 79,784
Peter Idusogie 3,075
With more than 437,000 votes cast (we'll have a prediction winner soon!) those 5226 votes a margin of almost 1.2% -- a hard-fought and narrow result to be sure, but far more than a recount could change. As Aaron noted at the 'Stool, it's time to move forward with that unity presser this morning and turn our attention to the epic choice before the state of Minnesota.
Until we have that closure, apparent victor Mark Dayton is in a sensitive spot -- he made clear beforehand that his gathering last night would not be a "victory" party since it represented one Democrat beating another no matter the result, but he still has to be cognizant of Kelliher, her supporters, and their feelings about last night's results.
Kelliher, for her part, brought the DFL endorsement to bear in this race, and almost made it hold up -- Jerry Janezich she was most certainly not. Once all the votes are finally counted, it's going to be incumbent upon her to rally her troops to Dayton's banner rather than her own.
The most striking piece of last night's events was the trendline -- from the very early returns, which favored Kelliher heavily, Dayton's building advantage never, ever, ever let up. His focus on senior citizens and on northern Minnesota, especially with his pick of Duluth's Yvonne Prettner Solon as a running mate, appears to have paid off in just enough spades to win. And with turnout this high (2.27 million votes were cast in the 2006 general election, so turnout appears to be well over 25% in this primary), that's a lot of likely voters Dayton has just banked for November.
As I usually say about this stuff, quite interesting.
Al Franken, Keith Ellision, Chris Coleman and assorted legislative dignitaries joined the raucous MAK rally in the 95 degree heat in front of the venerable Fitzgerald Theater before the MPR DFL Debate hit the airways.
To get comments from a bunch of people go to:
http://theuptake.org/2010/08/0...
This page has links to the other stories on the debate. Trivia question: What did I ask Dave Kelliher?
So, now that we have entered those last hectic days before the primary election on Tuesday I would like to let everyone know about my personal post-election/convention rule. I want to just quickly spell out here what my expectations are of those supporters of losing candidates:
OK, I can read polls. I even pretend to be able to interpret them. And yes, Survey USA just came out with one that shows Dayton 16 points ahead of MAK and 25 points ahead of my favored candidate, Matt Entenza. We haven't seen full internals, but from what the poll's sponsor, KSTP, has trickled out it looks like Dayton has sewed up the DFL demographics most likely to show up and vote in an august primary. Yep, it's pretty obvious- unless the pollster has really blown the screening of their sample Dayton is probably going to be the DFL's nominee for governor.
Under normal conditions I'd get behind MAK and suggest other Entenza supporters do likewise. Now, I can forgive and forget that MAK and her campaign have treated me and other Entenza supporters badly- I asked for an apology for her calling me "astroturf" on tuesday and she refused. And her attacks on Matt were so dumb and counterproductive that no apology is required.
But back to the demographics of each candidate's support... Dayton hardly needs to do GOTV- his supporters are the seniors that don't need to be reminded to vote, they'll be right there in line waiting for the polls to open at 7 a.m.. MAK's supporters will be out this weekend phoning and knocking on the same old lists of long term faithful DFL voters.
But Entenza is doing something daring- daring as in daring to bring new voters to the polls. I just got home from a hip hop rally and doorknock for Matt and Robyne. The house was packed with over a hundred young supporters, including Minnnesota's hip hop all stars who are backing Matt and Robyne. They filled four busses and are out doorknocking the low turnout precincts in the hoods- the precincts that MAK's campaign won't even bother with.
This didn't happen by accident. The Entenza campaign made a point of hiring organizers from all of Minnesota's diverse communities. Those communities are united by a common language, hip hop. While MAK's campaign has been milking the same old lists of DFL voters, Matt and Robyne are expanding the base by bringing thousands of new DFL voters to the polls. So while Entenza (and MAK too) may not win tuesday, thanks to Entenza's efforts, the DFL is winning thousands of new voters.
And that's why, win or lose, I'm still backing Matt and Robyne!
From 1995 to 2009, the Minnesota Department of Health reported the number of cases jumped from 6,121 to 14,186, a 231.8 percent increase. North Dakota's Department of Health said cases during the same time rose from 1,079 to 1,958, an 81.5 percent increase.
