Will Pawlenty Stay Safe for Presidential Run?

Pawlenty won't seek re-election (0.00 / 0)

If Pawlenty has presidential ambitions, which I believe he does, he has absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose by running for re-election.  He leaves office as a twice elected governor.  But if he were to lose, which I think could be a high probability (because Minnesota is a Democratic leaning state, the mood is sour due to the economy, and you make some enemies after serving 8 years), Pawlenty's presidential ambitions would vanish.  Money, support, organization are not going to go to a loser.  He would be foolish to run again.

He's going to delay announcing until the very latest he can.  He doesn't want to extend his lameduck status any longer than he needs to.

The Original Gordon

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by: Gordon @ Tue Feb 10, 2009 at 16:23:34 PM CST

Save the "Weasel Meter"... (0.00 / 0)

I think Tim Pawlenty is a shrewd, calculating politician who recognizes the inherent dangers of running a gubernatorial campaign in 2010:
> The state economy's not likely to have rebounded sufficiently by then to make people forget how we got in such a mess.
> The partisan stalemate between the legislative and executive branches in MN will again create a situation that is ripe for the rise of third-party candidates, particularly in the governor's race, making it less likely that Pawlenty could ever get a majority of the governor's vote.
> With several strong Democratic contenders, there's the distinct possibility that one of them could bolt and place themselves on the ballot as an independent, further diluting Pawlenty's chances.
> Lacking a national race, 527 groups will be able to devote more of their time, money, and energies to the governor's race, making it an exceptionally dirty, vicious campaign of negative attack ads.

Pawlenty can certainly see the options: he could lose, which would doom his Presidential aspirations altogether; or he could win, narrowly, with a plurality but not likely a majority, having spent tons of money he could have used on his Presidential race, and emerged badly damaged from a vicious campaign. Or, the third option, and the one that is best for him: not run at all.

Republicans have a penchant for declaring victory in the midst of devastating defeat (see Nixon / Vietnam, or George W / "Mission Accomplished" in Iraq...) So it would be Pawlenty's best tactic to declare himself the champion leader of eight years of phenominal success as Minnesota's governor, and use that as his platform to launch his Presidential bid. (Of course, it's all hogwash, but Republicans have never let the truth get in the way of their aspirations!)

So Pawlenty announces he won't run, and steps aside in Jan 2011 to launch his 2012 Presidential campaign. So who steps in to run for governor on the GOP side? Why, the Republican with the most name recognition, a proven ability to attract donors who have shown their willingness to throw money away on hopeless causes like the recount, and nothing else to do with himself: Norm Coleman!

Better hang on to that Weasel Meter....!

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by: Peabody @ Tue Feb 10, 2009 at 16:34:14 PM CST