A map of Mark Dayton's victory

So much for (0.00 / 0)

...MAK's "broad base of support" including greater Minnesota...

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by: tonyyarusso @ Thu Aug 12, 2010 at 23:29:09 PM UTC

Wow, just wow! (0.00 / 0)

He nailed everything but the districts that will be guaranteed supporters for any Dem. Greater MN wants him and the cities just want Dems. This seems great. I'm not misreading that this is awesome, am I?

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by: Alec @ Fri Aug 13, 2010 at 00:43:04 AM UTC

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The power of a statewide win (0.00 / 0)

Laura Brod, Jim Abeler, Mark Buesgens, Steve Drazkowski, Randy Demmer, and of course Tom Emmer: none of them have won a statewide office. But the fact that conservatives are elected in districts across the state, means there's a statewide base of conservative voters. Mark Dayton appears to be the best choice to counter that base.  

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by: mumrock @ Fri Aug 13, 2010 at 16:46:06 PM UTC

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Thanks (0.00 / 0)

Glad you made this map; I had been looking for one like this!

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by: MplsDave @ Fri Aug 13, 2010 at 01:25:14 AM UTC

We might not have the capability to produce such a thing... (0.00 / 0)

...but I still want to see maps like this in the form of cartograms, in which the size of each district -- in this case, each county -- is scaled relative the others based on the total number of votes cast in that district. For example, Hennepin County doesn't look big on this map, but in a DFL primary it's going to comprise a huge percentage of the total votes cast. Yes, Mark Dayton did extremely well in Greater Minnesota, and won because of it, but the fact that he won in the Arrowhead region might not be totally instructive since Hennepin (and Ramsey, for that matter) simply contain more votes.

I think Alec is right though -- Dayton followed a winning strategy to a T in this primary, and it's going to pay off in spades in November.

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by: Joe Bodell @ Fri Aug 13, 2010 at 11:35:40 AM UTC

Geography and turnout (0.00 / 0)

It is rather interesting that the city boy Dayton did so much better in the rural areas than the country girl MAK. There may have been some reason that both MAK and Entenza spent so much time emphasizing their rural roots! (Dayton's family hails from Worthington, too, BTW. Maybe he can get the Worthington water tower picture from the Entenza campaign!)

Also interesting to me were the turnout figures from the various counties. (You can see these data at Hot Dish Politics, probably among other places.) If memory serves, Lake County (northern Minnesota, but not where Duluth is), the largest county in the state (also if memory serves), had a turnout of 35%. Compare that to Hennepin and Ramsey Counties, where the MAK GOTV effort was supposed to make the difference.

Spotty

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by: Spot @ Fri Aug 13, 2010 at 16:56:05 PM UTC

Not quite (0.00 / 0)

If memory serves, Lake County (northern Minnesota, but not where Duluth is), the largest county in the state (also if memory serves)

St. Louis County is the largest by area, and does include Duluth.  Lake is the one immediately to the east of that, and the "tip" is Cook.

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by: tonyyarusso @ Fri Aug 13, 2010 at 19:17:32 PM UTC

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MAK Invisible in the North (0.00 / 0)

Dayton had a statewide presence based upon highly effective TV ads that ran for months before the primary.  MAK lacked the money to achieve a statewide presence via TV ads.  For her to win, she needed to establish a statewide presence via organization and grassroots visibility.  With the exception of the DFL field operation, she had no organizational presence whatsoever in northern Minnesota and no grassroots visibility in the north at all-- no yard signs, no letters to the editor, no earned media.  Hence her disastrous performance in the north.  She didn't need to carry the north, but she needed to be competitive.  She wasn't.  She lost.  Oh well.

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by: Joel in Duluth @ Sat Aug 14, 2010 at 23:01:27 PM UTC

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where Dayton campaigned (0.00 / 0)

Unlike MAK, Dayton spent a lot of time campaigning in outstate MN, which may explain these results.
Thanks for putting together this map!

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by: ldc @ Fri Aug 13, 2010 at 19:37:18 PM UTC

She did Campaign - Just not Effectively (0.00 / 0)

MAK made three campaign stops in Duluth in the two months before the election.  There was virtually no advance work for the first two and neither got any significant local media coverage.  The third (with Mondale) had decent advance work, but only got medicre press coverage.  (The reporter for the one station that showed up didn't seem to know who Mondale was.)  I suspect Dayton spent less time in Duluth than MAK, but got better coverage.  My observation is that the MAK press team did a lousy job.  They seemed to expect that small market media would simply show up and cover whatever they did.  That's not how it works.  You have to bust your butt to get covered.  They didn't.  She lost.  Oh well.

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by: Joel in Duluth @ Sat Aug 14, 2010 at 23:08:14 PM UTC

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