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Dayton-bashing push-poll

by: BlueCollar Daughter

Thu Jul 29, 2010 at 20:16:00 PM CDT


The bluecollardaughter household was on the receiving end of the mother of all telephone push polls tonight.  Actually, it was more of a sledgehammer or cudgel or bludgeon poll.  The pollster started off with typical questions, such as how I felt certain MN elected officials were doing (ranking), but quickly moved into the following questions which I can only describe as "janky business" (it's late, we're just celebrating my husband's birthday, and my vocabulary is slimmer than usual):

--If you knew that Mark Dayton had fired an employee while he had a heart condition, and the employee sued him, and the case went all the way to the Supreme Court, would that affect how you feel about Dayton as a candidate?
--Mark Dayton gave himself an "F" for failure for his performance as a senator--does that affect how you feel about him as a candidate?
--Mark Dayton has said if elected he will raise taxes on the rich and on the middle class. That would mean he would raise taxes on a couple that were for example a police officer and a schoolteacher.  Does that effect how you feel about him as a candidate?

My answer was "this would not affect my opinion" to all of these (cause ain't no skeevy phone poll going to), then I stopped the pollster and told her I don't participate in push polls.  When I then asked the pollster who was sponsoring the poll, the woman would not give information due to "confidentiality."  

Zing! I love technology. My caller ID read "opinion poll" at a Las Vega, Nevada number. A return call reached "McGuire Research" and reverse phone look-up at dexonline.com showed  MCGUIRE RESEARCH Services LLC, Address: 5818 SPRING MOUNTAIN RD,  LAS VEGAS,  NV  89146-8711. A short time later, another pollster from the McGuire firm called back to "verify" I had been polled.  She did not give her name, but the phone number of the call was from the same firm in Vegas. When I again asked who was the sponsor of the poll, I was told "no one knows that because it would influence how we ask the questions."

Guess we'll see what the MN Campaign Finance Board has to say...

BlueCollar Daughter :: Dayton-bashing push-poll
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me too (0.00 / 0)
I was wondering if I was the only one.  I got a similar call as well, but mine had a number of Emmer-related questions at the end: the tip thing and some tea party questions.  

Has to be from MAK (0.00 / 0)
This has to be from the MAK campaign.  She uses that "police officer and a school teacher" line all the time.  It's not even accurate.  Maybe if a chief of police were married to a college instructor they would make over 150k, but if you look at average income for these professions it's not even close.  Dayton is correct about taxes and it's the reason that I am going to vote for him.  150k a year household income is no longer middle class.  Sorry MAK.  Something like 95% of America considers itself middle class.  Obviously this is not realistic.  The rich like to believe/pretend they are middle class because being "rich" in America is stigmatized.  Here's a question for DFL candidates, why all the talk about middle class relief and attracting corporations to Minnesota?  What about working/lower class relief and dignified jobs for people without MBA's?  Who is looking out for the poor in St. Paul?  In Washington?  It certainly isn't the Democrats anymore.

Not necessarily (0.00 / 0)
MAK does use that line about the police officer and the teacher, but this could be the Republicans testing themes to use against Dayton. They target most of their attacks at him, which leads me to think they expect him to win the primary. If it is MAK, as a MAK supporter, I ask her to stop it right away.  

[ Parent ]
Too obvious, perhaps. (0.00 / 0)
It does seem to resemble MAKs style. But we also know that Matt Entenza is capable of very dirty politics. Remember the 2006 A.G. race? Could this be a desperate attempt by Entenza  to smear Dayton and MAK with one stroke? Hard to say. I will be voting for Mark Dayton in any event.  

[ Parent ]
No (0.00 / 0)
By making assumptions about who commissioned this push-poll, you are making the push-poll even more effective.  We want to minimize the effect of this kind of campaigning, not make it more powerful.  This could well be from a Republican group that sees Dayton as the strongest DFLer.  There is no way to tell from the call itself that it came from MAK or Entenza.  

[ Parent ]
Correct (0.00 / 0)
Dan is absolutely correct here. Make no assumptions about the source until we see a campaign finance filing indicating who's been paying McGuire Research.

[ Parent ]
from Emmer (0.00 / 0)
I'm fairly certain my call was from Emmer.  Or maybe the MN Forward/Target people.  For example, I had a question about how I feel about the teachers' union making all the decisions about our education system.  It didn't sound like it came from a dem at all to me.

[ Parent ]
Your call may have been from Obama! (0.00 / 0)
He hasn't been getting along with teacher's unions very well lately. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

[ Parent ]
Yeah, MDE is already playing this up as DFL vs. DFL (0.00 / 0)
Yeah, MDE is already playing this up as DFL vs. DFL. They seem to have gotten the story from here, and decided to already affirm as fact that it was a DFL push poll.  

[ Parent ]
Probably not MAK (0.00 / 0)
I doubt this is coming from the Kelliher campaign. A simple Google search of McGuire Research shows that there is a firm with offices in NV that lists "political polling" as one of its services (along with other "market research" type services). It doesn't list any campaigns on their client list, so you can't see if they tend to favor Republican or Democrat clients. But if you look at their CORPORATE clients, they list banks, oil companies, cell phone companies, insurance companies, etc. That list points more to the likely culprit behind the push poll as a group like MN Forward. They're probably just testing Margaret's "police officer and school teacher" analogy to see if it's actually effective. But I doubt it's Margaret....why would she push poll this close to the primary? And why would she use a firm like McGuire? My money is on Brian McClung.  

[ Parent ]
not a "push poll" (0.00 / 0)
Regardless of whether this poll was from Emmer, Entenza, Margaret (or even Dayton himself -- guess what folks, candidates test the attacks being used against them to figure out the best responses), it certainly doesn't sound like a "PUSH POLL".  I know that Dayton can suffer from some paranoia, but come on know.

Here's the wikipedia definition if you want something objective:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...

Push polls are short so they can make as many calls as possible. Any data obtained (if used at all) is secondary in importance to negatively affecting the targeted candidate. Legitimate polls are often used by candidates to test potential messages. They frequently ask about either positive and negative statements about any or all major candidates and always ask demographic information at the end.

I have no doubt that this was someone testing messaging - likely Dayton himself.  


Um, no (0.00 / 0)

I think that is absurd.  No candidate would pit forward, in a poll setting, hit pieces against themselves. Candidates might look to focus groups, (with confidentiality waivers) to determine their weakest areas, but not in a poll.

I honestly don't believe a DFL candidate is behind this.  After the Hatch/Entenza spectacle, pulling a stunt like this is too dangerous and if revealed to be either Entenza or MAK, it would make them immediately radioactive less then two weeks before the primary.

My bet: the MN GOP has some data showing Dayton is either the most likely to win the nomination and/or that Dayton polls the strongest against Emmer.  They are testing hit pieces against him to see what might resonant.  I would not be surprised if similar polls will be done on MAK and Entenza in the next couple weeks.  


[ Parent ]
actually.... (0.00 / 0)
I think that is absurd.  No candidate would pit forward, in a poll setting, hit pieces against themselves. Candidates might look to focus groups, (with confidentiality waivers) to determine their weakest areas, but not in a poll.

A candidate in Arizona did use the exact same firm a few months ago to test out negative messages against himself.  I'm not saying this is what happened with the Dayton poll, but yes, candidates have been known to poll in this way on their own campaigns.

http://www.azcentral.com/membe...

Robin is a freelance editor and writer.  Follow her at http://twitter.com/robinmarty


[ Parent ]
So given the "confidentiality" (0.00 / 0)

that the pollster cited in the account by BlueCollar Daughter, what are the chances we will find out who commissioned or paid for this poll?

[ Parent ]
As Joe said ... (0.00 / 0)
As Joe said, we'll know when we look at the FEC filings and see who paid McGuire a significant chunk of money.

[ Parent ]
not at all (0.00 / 0)
First, I'm not saying that Dayton did it - what I am saying is that no one can determine who did it based on the questions.

Furthermore, it's not a "push poll" as the term is actually defined. Someone is testing messaging and that happens all the time.  Even if it's Emmer, I don't find it particularly dirty and I hope that we are doing the same thing with regards to him.


[ Parent ]
No way pro-Dayton (0.00 / 0)
I don't know WHO comissioned this poll (obvious point of my post) but I really don't see how it could not be viewed as both leading and anti-Dayton, and I will tell you why.  In the "push poll" type questions I list, the pollster is presenting half-truths.  For example, Dayton did give himself in "F", but the pollster didn't mention HE GAVE EVERY MEMBER OF THE SENATE an "F" also for the same reason.  He has proposed taxes, but I really don't think it was accurate to characterize them as "on the middle class" or against the professionals mentioned due to the $150 K income guideline.  Even with the case of the employee with a heart condition, the Supreme Court case has a lot of subtleties, and it was clearly posed by the pollster as "he screwed a disabled employee and got sued" tact.

In my opinion, whoever comissioned this poll, crossed a line.  I found the questions offensive and misleading, and if I weren't well-versed on some of the issues, I would have ended up thinking Dayton was quite the jerk.  I think it woulod have definitely affected an uniformed voter's decisons and answers, which is a PUSH POLL.

bluecollardaughter


maybe (0.00 / 0)
I don't know.  Candidates do test negative attacks against themselves to see where they are most vulnerable.  In that case they would test the attack line, not the whole truth.  They would ask about Dayton giving himself an F, shutting down his offices, raising taxes, depression, alcoholism, etc.  Not "he gave himself an F, but here is his claimed explanation" because no attack ad is ever going to give Dayton's side of the story.

Regardless, it sounds like it was Emmer or some other GOP-affiliated group, judging from the 1st commenter's experience.


[ Parent ]
Emmer (0.00 / 0)
Why would Emmer commission this type of poll against 1 of 3 possible opponents only two weeks before the primary?  Why would he not just wait the two weeks and then be certain who his opponent would be?  This may be common practice, I would have no idea, but it doesn't make sense to me.  This is why I think it was done by MAK or Entenza.  And no, I don't agree with the claim that discussing the sponsor furthers the effectiveness of the negative polling, I think it does the opposite actually.  

[ Parent ]
why would Emmer do anything he does? (0.00 / 0)
The man is a buffoon.  But I think it's Emmer or another GOP group because it's probably too late to be testing lines of attack for the primary.  This way Emmer is ready to smack whoever it is around on Day 1.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe Emmer fears Dayton (0.00 / 0)
and would rather face MAK.  

Its one thing to "discuss" the sponsor of the poll.  Its another thing altogether to accuse someone of being behind it based on nothing more than speculation.  


[ Parent ]
It's obvious ... (0.00 / 0)
why Emmer would be getting ready to run against Dayton.  Truth of the matter is that nobody expects that MAK will still be in the race come August 11.  Take a look at the website www.realclearpolitics.com and check out the polling for the MN governor's race. All the match ups are Emmer vs Dayton vs Horner.

MAK might as well be calling her travel agent and booking a nice extended European vacation with an August 11th departure date.

The Original Gordon


[ Parent ]
um, wow (0.00 / 0)
I don't even know where to start with that.  You know that who RCP lists on that page doesn't actually mean anything, right?  

[ Parent ]
no kidding (0.00 / 0)
Just saw this: http://www.startribune.com/pol...

But I guess if some website doesn't list it, it isn't real.


[ Parent ]
Wrong Robin (0.00 / 0)
The reason Dayton is the target of this negative poll is because he is leading the DFL pack and has been leading the pack since the beginning. He is the most likely candidate and the Righties are setting up their message against him.

Stop taking is so personal against MAK.
The irony here is that you're the one pushing the negative message with every post, you find it your business to put in the negatives and flippant comments about the frontrunner.

You are starting to sound like Tom Swift with every post of yours. Bitter, flippant and petty.

One of these candidates will be the nominee and you'll be supporting them over Emmer.  


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