Another great weekend of delegate chasing across the state. We're still waiting on reconciliation of a two-delegate discrepancy in SD52, and we still don't have results from the 11-delegate Otter Tail County convention. However, other than those thirteen delegates, we're now looking at two virtual ties in the pledged delegate chase, which is almost at an end. I'm including the superdelegates here so we have as close to a complete picture as possible.
| Candidate |
Pledged Del. |
Superdel. |
Total |
| Uncommitted |
481 |
~80 |
~560 |
| MAK |
177.5 |
46 |
223.5 |
| Rybak |
176.5 |
1 |
177.5 |
| Marty |
71 |
4 |
75 |
| Thissen |
66 |
4 |
70 |
| Rukavina |
45.5 |
3 |
48.5 |
| Bakk |
25.5 |
18 |
43.5 |
| Entenza |
29.5 |
11 |
40.5 |
After completing the numbers from several previously missing county conventions, Margaret Anderson Kelliher held a(n approximated) 7-delegate lead among pledged delegates. However, R.T. Rybak had another really good day in the West Metro, and made up that margin to pull within just one. MAK still holds a commanding lead overall, assuming that all the superdelegates show up in Duluth and vote on the floor of the convention.
State Sen. John Marty also had a very good weekend, pulling even with or just ahead of State Rep. Paul Thissen.
Assuming the remaining fifty delegates yet to be elected split somewhat evenly (even if they don't, they won't have a huge effect on these totals), there are basically four tiers here:
1.) MAK vs. Rybak. The two frontrunners will duke it out for uncommitted delegates and the pleasure of being a first-ballot leader in Duluth. It matters.
2.) Thissen vs. Marty. Being in the second tier isn't a bad place to be -- having a base of strong support means you can dictate the course of events, get supporters on to committees that decide how business will be done at the convention, and make deals with other candidates.
3.) Rukavina + Bakk. Rumors of a deal between the two northern Minnesota candidates have not abated -- combining their support bases would launch that candidate (at this point, it would be Rukavina) right into the second tier and might make for an interesting move on the convention floor.
4.) Entenza. The odd man out -- or is he? There have been numerous reports of strong Entenza supporters getting themselves elected out of uncommitted subcaucuses, a good strategic move when you don't have the support base to create your own subcaucuses. Entenza will likely outperform his pledged total indicated here, but by how much?
I'm having some issues creating a screenshot of the entire Delegate Tracker spreadsheet (it's getting very large), so I'll update the post with that later today. Hopefully by then we'll have those thirteen delegates straightened out too. |
