| First of all, let me say that I am an auto (a.k.a super) delegate who is decidedly neutral (save the calls). My vote is neutral because I am holding it to keep the contest fair and friendly, then unite the party. Some of the auto delegates have stated rules for how they are going to vote like many party leaders will only vote when a candidate reaches 51% to help aid that candidate to endorsement. What that means is that 20 swing votes could make a huge difference near 50%, because then the for-endorsement voting kicks in.
I think what you are all missing is what happens to the second choice votes of candidates who will be forced to drop out early. What if John Marty's 49 votes and Matt Entenza's 25 votes go to RT Rybak and Tom Rukavina's 41 votes and Tom Bakk's 20 votes go to MAK?
Would someone like Paul Thissen, bargain his 58.5 votes for Lt. governorship, with perhaps a better chance in a future run for governor? Would his votes even follow his recommendation? What will RENEW bargain for votes? Would John Marty bargain for more single payer support?
If Entenza goes for endorsement and loses, then does that not create a perception of having already lost? If Entenza is going to win by advertisement and a ground swell of support, then why didn't he use ads the week before precinct caucuses?
Can Dayton win the primary without the incredible cadre of supporters that people like Rybak are building? And if the primary race is a doorknock/calling DFL campaign vs television ads in the dead heat of summer, then who will win? Especially if Entenza and Dayton split the television advertising vote. Add to this, the impact that August is vacation month, the dead month in all advertising. In June and July, TV is dead and the sunlight activities entice people outside. So I would expect virtually the same primary election results as the precinct caucus night results, which would mean that the DFL endorsed candidate would win.
In my crystal ball, the bargaining for votes and the second choice persuasions will determine our DFL candidate for governor. Based on previous experience, I think that second choice persuasions will likely be coming from fellow delegates more than candidates. That means momentum and excitement will matter.
Ah, my phone is ringing.
Ring, ring?
Have you thought about who you are supporting for governor?
Yes, Matt Bostrom for Ramsey County Sheriff and John Choi for Ramsey County Attorney!
Because other races matter too! |
