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Delegate chase: MAK leads by slim margin, Rybak close behind

by: Joe Bodell

Mon Mar 01, 2010 at 07:53:24 AM CST


Wild Weekend was...well, wild. More than 500 of 1200 eventual delegates have now been selected -- and we're tracking 77% (415) of those delegates right here.

Of those 415 we now have tracked, here are the totals:

CandidatePledged Delegates
Uncommitted176
Margaret Anderson Kelliher71.5
R.T. Rybak65.5
Paul Thissen43.5
Tom Rukavina26
John Marty22
Tom Bakk7.5
Matt Entenza2

A few general notes about these totals:

  1. In the screenshot below, you'll see where the discrepancies are -- we did extremely well this weekend tracking the Senate District conventions, but we're still missing totals from several County Unit conventions -- if you were at one or know someone who was and can get us accurate totals, let us know
  2. I know for a fact we're missing a few Entenza delegates, but I simply have not been able to get first-hand reports from those conventions (Nobles County, in particular). So his totals are a tad low.
  3. Similarly, because the reports I got from several of last weekend's conventions were from a Thissen supporter (whom I have no reason to believe isn't being accurate with Thissen's totals), his strong third-place showing right now is likely a bit inflated, as we're missing the rest of the delegates from those conventions. HOWEVER, it is clear that Thissen is doing quite well in rural delegate elections given his metro base (witness his strong performance in his home district of SD63).
  4. The other item of note now that we have considerable totals under our belts is the ReNew.mn factor. Technically, the basic "Uncommitted/Renew.mn" subcaucus is uncommitted in the gubernatorial race. In the purest sense that's true; in reality those delegates (at least 24 of them so far) are probably only going to vote for Rybak, Paul Thissen, or MAK -- in that order -- when push comes to shove in Duluth. Also witness that the only named subcaucuses that include ReNew.mn's name are for those three candidates.

    It's not against any rules, but we've heard that a few people here and there have been a bit miffed at the organization calling its delegates "uncommitted." On the other hand, they're an advocacy group, and they're doing a good job of pushing their values through the endorsement process. YMMV, as it's said.

  5. A future post will focus on the congressional campaign breakouts -- some interesting items in there as well.

Here's that full spreadsheet -- discrepancies are color-coded at the bottom. A big thanks to the MPP community for helping make this happen -- we're all looking forward to next week's conventions for more of the same!

Joe Bodell :: Delegate chase: MAK leads by slim margin, Rybak close behind
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Gov. Thissen/Lt. Gov. Rukavina (0.00 / 0)
Combining Thissen and Rukavina would be a very, very strong team.  Any word regarding potential Gov/Lt Gov teams?

Thissen seems to be doing very well in light... (0.00 / 0)
....of his relatively low showing at the caucus straw poll last month. He also seems to be drawing delegates from outside the Metro. I guess news of his demise after the straw poll was a bit premature (I admit, I kind of wrote him off after his low percentage).

"...if my thought-dreams could be seen, they'd probably put my head in a guillotine..."----Bob Dylan, 1965.

Thissen - calm down (0.00 / 0)
I like Thissen, but just eyeballing it it looks like those 17 or so delegates from counties without any other results are of a possible 60.  Not knowing where the remaining delegates went is like trying to figure out how the Vikings did a few weeks ago without looking at how many points the Saints scored.

Thissen numbers need to go (0.00 / 0)
I really think you need to take the Thissen numbers in districts without pledged delegates down form the spreadsheet and off his total.  It's a very misleading number and adds 17 votes onto his total.  The real numbers should go:
MAK 71.5
Rybak 65.5
Thissen 26.5
Rukavina 26
Marty 22

Thissen's actual total is MUCH closer to Marty and Rukavina than it is to MAK and Rybak.  Once you get ALL of the totals for those counties, then you should add it into the spreadsheet.  The way it's set up now creates a false sense of him being close to the top tier, which, as the results are coming in, is clearly not true.

Not trying to criticize too much because this is such an amazing service you guys are providing, just giving a suggestion to make this a truly accurate document.


That's nonsense (0.00 / 0)
Those Thissen numbers from Crow Wing, etc. have been sitting there for over a week.  Apparently no other campaign has challenged them or reported any committed delegates of its own.  It boggles my mind that the Amateur Hour that is the DFL does not provide this information readily to interested outlets like this one, but so be it.  If any other campaign had anything to brag about in those counties we would have heard about it long ago now.

[ Parent ]
I have heard this from a few others as well (0.00 / 0)
And you're right, Thissen's number is inflated a bit because we don't know where the other delegates from Swift, Watonwan, Clay, etc are.

However, I've tried to make clear each time I post these numbers that Thissen's number is a bit inflated due to those counties, and my hope is that we can get accurate reports from them this week. Already I've pulled Morrison CU off the board (update coming right up this morning) and other results are trickling in. My earnest hope is that the issue will resolve itself as we get closer to the next round of conventions this weekend :)

And thanks for the kudos!


[ Parent ]
Try This Thing Called Google (0.00 / 0)
Swift County report in the West Central Tribune of February 8:  "The county will send three delegates to the state convention. Two are going as uncommitted delegates and the third is caucusing with Paul Thissen."


[ Parent ]
The Google strikes again! (0.00 / 0)
Thanks

[ Parent ]
You Are Welcome (0.00 / 0)
Heaven knows why we Democrats put up with this Easter Egg Hunt.  The competent and transparent DFL we all deserve would have this stuff on the front page of its website.

[ Parent ]
Short a delegate for RT (0.00 / 0)
You're short a delegate for RT, it seems, for SD63. It looks like you have 1 marked for electability. We had 2 in a combined electability/green jobs/vets/pro-choice/marriage equality sub caucus.

As such, I think that one of the other categories would need to be reduced by 1 delegate, as I think we had 20 delegates total for SD63, split 15 and 5 between CD5 and CD3...IIRC. I count 20 already pledged in the column, but I have no idea which one is off. I know ReNew had 2 and that's represented.



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