How the results of the caucus play out for the MN-GOV race

Blech (0.00 / 0)

Now I am depressed.

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by: blogvirgin @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 18:48:51 PM CST

My scenario (0.00 / 0)

This is the scenario I've been gaming out in my head for a while:

I think you're wrong that "a no endorsement plays into the hands of Entenza and Dayton."  In fact I think a no endorsement would be a disaster for them, since it would mean that Rybak and/or MAK would have a free pass to run in the primary.

So given that, I could imagine that Entenza and Dayton supporters are instructed to try to tip the endorsement to a candidate that E and D do NOT fear in a primary-- i.e., someone they believe would not be able to raise the funds to compete.  I.e., just about any candidate other than MAK, Rybak, or possibly Thissen.

If this scenario played out, and it was obvious what happened, I could then imagine MAK and/or Rybak having a plausible excuse for deciding NOT to abide after all, since the endorsement process didn't play out "fairly."

Am I crazy?  Is this utterly implausible?  I don't know... I'm new here and this is my first go-round of this kind of thing...

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by: mtullius @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 19:39:06 PM CST

Neither strikes me as that type of candidate (4.00 / 1)

But there could definitely be some "easier candidate to beat in the primary" machinations going on, for sure.

I see some horses getting traded either before or at the convention -- one of the leading candidates making a deal with a non-leader for a position in their government when they (hopefully) win, or a specific policy proposal to be made into legislation in early 2011. The strength of these moves will depend on how many delegates the dealmaker brings to the table -- and also whether or not they amount to an endorsement.

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by: Joe Bodell @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 19:54:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Thissen should be the consensus candidate at the convention (0.00 / 0)

We all know there will be a convention alternative to Rybak and MAK.  Kelley and Gaertner are out of it.  With Entenza going to a primary, it's not going to be him.  Marty, bless his heart, is likely at his ceiling in terms of support because a single-issue candidate can only get so far (as Marty has proved in years past).  So we're down to Thissen, Bakk, and Rukavina, and the latter two will split supporters.  Thissen is the candidate to watch.

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by: roughrider @ Thu Feb 04, 2010 at 14:43:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Got some bad news (0.00 / 0)

I am actually a little surprised Thissen didn't drop out today.  I really like the guy - and nearly voted for him - but I don't think anyone underachieved as badly as he did.  It just isn't going to happen.

The race is over for any candidate who didn't break 10 percent and can't self-fund.  Undecideds coalesce around front-runners.  They don't move toward candidates who got 6 or 7 or 9 percent, even if that was more than they expected.  Either Rybak or Anderson Coakley (props to whoever came up with that very apt comparison) is getting the endorsement, and then will face Entenza and Dayton in the primary.  

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by: Dan @ Thu Feb 04, 2010 at 20:15:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Thissen or Rukavina will be the alternative (0.00 / 0)

I disagree, Dan.  There certainly will be a third viable candidate at the convention - particularly because the two frontrunners are Mr. and Mrs. Big City Liberal.  Thissen will benefit from Kelley dropping out, and likely will carry the Marty support after he drops at the convention.  Rukavina will pick up the Bakk support.  After those combinations, Thissen will be at 17-19%, and Rukavina will be at 12-13%.  Thissen and Rukavina will have to decide who is the Guv and who is the Lt. Guv -- and once they do they will swamp the stalemate between Margaret and Raymond.

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by: GordonT @ Thu Feb 04, 2010 at 21:02:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Take a look at the numbers and where they came from- (0.00 / 0)

Thissen's support mostly comes from the good turnout in his district, and will translate into at most 5% of the delegates. Thissen will thus be dropped in the first round. Correcting for the high turnout in the cities, MAK will have around 25% of the delegates, RT 20%, Bakk, Entenza, Marty, and Rukavina around 10% each, with around 15% supporting no endorsement.

We'll probably see three "blocs" develop at the convention. Once dropped, Bakk and Rukavina's supporters will support MAK in a labor bloc. Thissen and Marty's supporters will probably support RT in a progressive bloc. The uncommitted bloc will grow to around 20% as candidates are dropped with delegates voting no endorsement. MAK will be stuck at close to 50%, with only a withdrawal by RT making endorsement possible. History tells us that RT is good at blocking endorsements...

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by: dyna @ Thu Feb 04, 2010 at 23:56:50 PM CST

[ Parent ]

OK (0.00 / 0)

If the problem is that the other candidates are Minneapolis liberals, I am afraid that Paul Thissen - a liberal who represents a district in South Minneapolis - doesn't provide much of an alternative.  

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by: Dan @ Fri Feb 05, 2010 at 01:06:16 AM CST

[ Parent ]

The problem is not ... (0.00 / 0)

that MAK and RT are from Minneapolis -- it's that outside of the 612/651 zone they are seen as coming straight from central casting for Big City Liberals.  Seifert or Emmer are going to exploit that as their first, second, and third strategies.  We need to think critically.  As our own HHH said: "In real life, unlike in Shakespeare, the sweetness of the rose depends upon the name it bears. Things are not only what they are. They are, in very important respects, what they seem to be."

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by: roughrider @ Fri Feb 05, 2010 at 07:44:50 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I don't disagree (0.00 / 0)

My point was simply that if the problem is that candidates are seen as big city liberals, the answer to that problem is not another liberal from the big city.  

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by: Dan @ Fri Feb 05, 2010 at 10:35:41 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Marty a "single-issue" candidate??? WTF??? (0.00 / 0)

If you truly believe John Marty is a "single-issue" candidate perhaps you need to study this a little more.

"...if my thought-dreams could be seen, they'd probably put my head in a guillotine..."----Bob Dylan, 1965.

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by: lams712 @ Thu Feb 04, 2010 at 23:45:04 PM CST

[ Parent ]

What does it say...? (0.00 / 0)

What does it say that I really don't want
Margaret Anderson-Coakley to get the endorsement? I mean, she has a perfect liberal voting record, lifetime of service, and is just blah.

Ugghhh.

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by: Alec @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 19:55:51 PM CST

Playing It Out (4.00 / 1)

Here's how I see it. Dayton and Entenza will go to Primary. Dayton wants nothing to do with the endorsement process while Entenza is trying for it. Susan Gaertner says she's going to the Primary, as well, even without the endorsement. There's a no-brainer, since she knows she won't get the endorsement. Why is she going to the Primary? Does she have a hidden stash of cash that we don't know about? She's not going to be our next governor regardless. Maybe she's looking for a Commissioner position.

So the frontrunners, Dayton and Entenza, will line up at the Primary with either Rybak, MAK, Thissen or Marty. My bet is on Rybak, although Thissen is coming up fast. Many don't know him yet, but when they do, they like him. My son met him for the first time at the reNEW MN meeting last Sunday and was very impressed. He liked Dayton, too.

There's another scenario in which Rybak, MAK and Thissen all go to the Primary because they are reNEW MN's endorsed candidates.

MAK has an awful lot of endorsements. Rybak has a great deal of popularity. He's likeable and an excellent communicator. Thissen is fresh off the printing press, but what a gold-lined press it is.

Dayton, on the other hand, has 35 years of public service experience. His name recognition is almost 100%. Minnesotans tend to think of the Dayton name with nostalgia and fondness. And those who know him personally can't say enough good things about his character. It's sterling.

It's going to be a long summer. More forums. More debates. More events.

I wonder if any of the candidates would be in need of a public speaking consultant. I've been blogging my comments regarding their communication/presentation techniques for free. Silly me.

Don't cook your own goose.

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by: MsTigerHawk @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 19:59:50 PM CST

MsTigerHawk (0.00 / 0)

I'm not interested in "going negative" on former Sen. Dayton, but I think your assessment is a bit too rosy.  After all, many Minnesotans surely remember him as someone who failed as a Senator.  I'm not saying he did or didn't, but I believe he gave himself a D grade on his term, and Time Magazine named him one of the worst Senators in America (a stiff competition, to be sure).  Whether these assessments are reasonable or not, the fact is that Dayton left office under something of a cloud, and he was unlikely to have been reelected if he had run for a 2nd term.  

I myself did not live here when Dayton was in office, so I have a "clean slate" view of him.  So far I think he has some very interesting positions and I really want to like him.  But I worry about the aspects I mentioned above in terms of his ability to get elected...

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by: mtullius @ Thu Feb 04, 2010 at 09:28:31 AM CST

[ Parent ]

can he handle the groud game (0.00 / 0)

A complaint I've heard with Dayton is he's poor at the ground game, which is what the caucuses depend on. I'm getting annoyed with his claim that the primary is more small "d" democratic, because you can't buy a caucus or convention, but a primary campaign can be mostly TV ads, like a general election. Especially given the success the endorsement process has had in picking winning candidates outside of governor and Dayton's election in 2000, we should trust it, which Dayton isn't doing.

Moreover, with governor being the top of the ticket without a senate race, a lack of emphasis on ground game and GOTV could hurt the rest of the ticket. I think Dayton is qualified as governor and might win --- though that hardly makes him stand out in this field --- but I'm concerned for down the ticket.

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by: ericf @ Thu Feb 04, 2010 at 12:11:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Please consult Mr. Dayton! (0.00 / 0)

I believe that he is genuine, certainly has experience, but he is unlistenable as a public speaker.  Anything you can do to polish up his public speaking would be doing him, his campaign, and all of us as listeners a huge favor!

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by: tom a. @ Thu Feb 04, 2010 at 18:52:47 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I think we might have to reserve judgement.... (3.00 / 1)

.....until the SD/CU conventions start getting into full swing and we see how the actual delegate count stacks up. We will see who has the ability to get their people elected as delegates to the state convention. It is a far easier task to get someone to show a cast a vote at a caucus. It's an entirely different animal to get people committed to go on to the state convention. It will take a candidate who has a dedicated base of support. I also think the relatively high number of uncommitteds leaves a lot of wiggle room for pretty much all of the candidates.

It will be interesting (and fun) to see how it all unfolds.

"...if my thought-dreams could be seen, they'd probably put my head in a guillotine..."----Bob Dylan, 1965.

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by: lams712 @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 23:00:27 PM CST

How it will play out? (3.67 / 3)

Political junkies love to sit around and play what-if scenarios.  The number of variables are huge.  One thing that can be said with great confidence is that everything is fluid;  perhaps more so than usual.  Massachusetts has been cited as sending any number of messages depending on which side of the aisle it came from.  Much of it is wishful thinking.  What can be said with some confidence is that there is a vast well of anger and uneasiness in every camp, perhaps no more so than on the far left progressive wing.  You know, the retards who have nowhere to go?  (Thanks Rahm)  Here in Minnesota, the straw polls indicate significant support based on the results for Rukavina and Marty.  Marty is better known and dependable, but, Rukavina is a wild card.  While it can only be seen as a long shot, he has the personal attributes that could allow his campaign to catch fire with the public at large.  His candidacy has the potential to attract large numbers of the independent vote.  Tom Rukavina has the useful gifts of humor, cleverness, and most importantly, authenticity.  The press loves him.  He is a rogue who can slide a knife in and leave his victims still smiling.
If the Progressive wing can unite around a single candidate at the State DFL Convention, they will have the juice to force the powers that be to negotiate and finally gain some respect, because they cannot win without the left base's support.  On the right day, on the right stage, a guy like Rukavina hitting on all cylinders could steal the crown jewels. Likely? ...No...but If I were one of the anointed or establishment candidates, I'd be nervous.  Ask Coakley.  The retards are restless.  I, for one am proud to be a retard, and I'll be there in Duluth.    

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by: the lonely ranger @ Thu Feb 04, 2010 at 10:15:21 AM CST

Well said. (0.00 / 0)

Yup TR could do it. Depends on how many want real change and how many want to win. If we win in November, and get little change,what good is that? Color me retarded too, maybe I should get some Retards for Rukavina shirts made up.

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by: spartacus218 @ Thu Feb 04, 2010 at 11:55:01 AM CST

[ Parent ]