Playing the prediction game with the DFL pref ballot

Is MAK our Martha Coakley? (4.00 / 1)

Are we simply be endorsing the 'next in line' if we endorse MAK? Smart and capable? Yes.  My concern is that her style is not enough to inspire and motivate that discouraged Dem. who may want to sit out on this one. Debate performance? A C.

I am supporting RT. In a recent PPP poll of likely voters in Bachmann's district where Obama lost by 10%, RT against Coleman would lose by 6%.

If he can be competitive in Bachmann's district, Democrats win in 2010.

GO RT Rybak!
Smarts, Vision, Sizzle.

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by: blogvirgin @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 17:12:15 PM CST

RT is the republicon's dream candidate... (0.00 / 0)

Need I say more?

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by: dyna @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 18:26:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Rybak, Kelliher, Thissen, Dayton (0.00 / 0)

I like Rybak. I like Thissen. I cannot vote for Kelliher. She doesn't strike me personally as being sincere. I've heard some say she's as close to a Republican as a Democrat can get. Blue Dog? No idea. I don't know if I can trust her to do what she says once she reaches the governor's office. We've been burned too much in the past by politicians who didn't keep their campaign promises.

I'm voting for Dayton. At least he always keeps his word and does what he says he's going to do. My second choice would be tied between Rybak and Thissen.

Don't cook your own goose.

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by: MsTigerHawk @ Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 19:50:28 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Blue Dog? (0.00 / 0)

"I've heard some say she's as close to a Republican as a Democrat can get. Blue Dog?"

We're all certainly entitled to our own opinions in this race, but this particular analysis has me REALLY curious.

Care to share who the "some" are from whom you "heard" this? I have pages upon pages and volumes upon volumes of the Journal of the House at the ready for these individuals to read which suggest otherwise!

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by: DJ Danielson @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 00:33:41 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Not So Fast (0.00 / 0)

I think after seeing the TakeAction Minnesota results, which are made up of much of the same people who are going to be these delegates (Rybak 336, Thissen 264, MAK 261, Marty 250), MAK will not be this far out in front.  I think Rybak will finish behind her in second place, followed by Thissen.  I'm not sure how you possibly think Entenza or Kelley will beat Rybak.

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by: GeorgeH @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 17:31:08 PM CST

First off, the Take Action "poll" is worthless. (0.00 / 0)

I was there, but wasn't allowed to vote. I saw my friend who was not a member pick up a ballot and look at it and no one challenged her. She could have pocketed a whole stack of ballots and stuffed the ballot box, but being an honest lady she put the ballot back on the stack. I and many members were told we weren't on the membership list and we weren't allowed to vote. When you have 11 votes seperating the 2nd and 4th place finishers among over a thousand ballots cast, stuffed, whatever... One can have little confidence in TakeAction MN's "endorsement".

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by: dyna @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 18:25:03 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Bitter much? (0.00 / 0)

Dyna,

I too was at the Take Action Minnesota Annual mtg.  I re-upped my membership as I usually pay about this time every year and voted.  I sincerely doubt any of the nefarious scenarios you mentioned could have happened.  The same people sat at the place where members voted throughout the 1 1/2 hour period when members could turn in their ballot.

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by: The Big E @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 20:27:00 PM CST

[ Parent ]

My two cents (0.00 / 0)

In light of the TakeAction results, it seems the air continues to leak out of the Kelliher campaign.  A few months ago she seemed like the "inevitable" candidate, but ever since the campaign finance violations came to light it seems she has struggled to regain footing.  

I predict Tuesday's results as follows:

1. Kelliher
2. Thissen
3. Entenza
4. Rybak
5. Bakk

Kelliher still has enough support still to win a preference ballot at this point (she's the Speaker of the House, after all), but my guess is she's no better than 3rd come endorsement time.

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by: GordonT @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 18:03:10 PM CST

If R.T. is sixth as you predict, (3.00 / 1)

(or worse) I will eat my hat.  I wouldn't be surprised if he's first....

And Dyna, in a field of so many great DFL candidates (including yours), there's really very little reason to be sooooo negative, all the time...  Can we hold the circular firing squad?

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by: mtullius @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 19:35:53 PM CST

To be honest, R.T. would probably lose the general election. (0.00 / 0)

I live in Minneapolis and know R.T. well. The republicons can nail him for year after year tax increases. For a campaign ad all the have to do is shoot some video in abandoned North Minneapolis and add the caption "don't let R.T. do to Minnesota what he did to Minneapolis". It's hard to run against that kind of record. If R.T. wins the primary I may just head to Florida for the winter early.

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by: dyna @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 19:45:31 PM CST

[ Parent ]

dyna, (0.00 / 0)

You clearly think Minnesota voters (especially in Greater MN) are idiots.  I do not.  I think most voters can understand that while Mpls is not perfect, it is far better than it was when RT was first elected.  We would be lucky if the whole state had the kind of economic growth and progressive policy change that Minneapolis has had over the past several years.  I think RT will be quite happy to debate Republicans over his record.  And I think it's a debate we will win.

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by: mtullius @ Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 13:53:41 PM CST

[ Parent ]

First-round shuffle (0.00 / 0)

I too predict a few more points from MAK to Rybak on caucus night.  Perhaps as much as a 19%/14% split.  If these were convention numbers and we were weighting more heavily on what superdelegates thought, I'd say that's a fair assessment.  As it is, this ballot is going to be more reflective of "gut" base support.

Granted, that still leaves Kelliher with the lead and a big dogfight behind her, (3-4 percentage points separate the next five candidates) but if that breaks her lead to less than the 11% this model has most people scoring, then this race continues on as I think it will.

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by: Jlubby @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 20:19:02 PM CST

One has to remember that Minneapolis has less than 20% of the delegate seats... (0.00 / 0)

R.T. isn't even Minneapolis' "favorite son", and outstate he's weak. MAK and Entenza will lead outstate and do well in the suburbs too.

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by: dyna @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 20:41:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

For reference: (0.00 / 0)

In 2006, with 4 candidates the Pref Ballot results were:

Mike Hatch: 38.7%
Becky Lourey: 22.6%
Steve Kelley: 22.1%
Undecided: 10.2%
Kelly Doran: 6.4%

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by: dweinand @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 20:33:02 PM CST

And at the state convention... (0.00 / 0)

Doran had dropped out and Kelley and Lourey split his delegates and the uncommitted. On paper it was a 3 way tie, but a lot of Lourey's delegates from the 7th and 8th CDs couldn't make it to the convention in Rochester. Lourey was dropped and although he was gaining support, for the sake of party unity Kelley withdrew and let Hatch have the endorsement.

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by: dyna @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 23:01:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Not even close to accurate (0.00 / 0)

Dyna,

This account isn't even close to accurate. Doran didn't have any delegate support whatsoever, and on the first ballot Hatch parked several delegates with Lourey, propping up her numbers and forcing his own down to about 40% so the second ballot would show momentum. On each of the first four ballots, Lourey's support dropped and split about evenly to both Hatch and Kelley, with Kelley rising slightly faster. After the fourth ballot Lourey dropped, and the fifth ballot was a deadlock with both Hatch and Kelley just below 50%.

At that point, the Carpenters' Union met, endorsed Hatch, and moved 18 votes into Hatch's column, putting him over 50% and providing late momentum, which led to Kelley's numbers sagging slightly on the sixth and seventh ballot, when Kelley met with his team in their war room and announced that he would withdraw. I know because I was in that room.

Lourey had depth in her support base, but it was never ever a broad base of support among the DFL faithful. I can't speak to the possibility of "her" delegates not being able to make it to Rochester, but come on -- if it's important, you make sure you're electing delegates who are going to be able to travel. That's the lamest excuse I've heard in a while.

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by: Joe Bodell @ Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 08:58:35 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Joe, you've got it mostly right... (0.00 / 0)

But your view was from the Kelley war room, I was in Lourey's. Looking at our hard count of delegates in the weeks before the race it looked like a three way split after Doran dropped. But I'd done a lot of phoning to CD7 and knew our numbers their, but from talking to them a lot said they might not be able to travel to Rochester because they had to care for elders, livestock, etc. or just couldn't afford the trip. I knew we had a tough battle ahead of us when I saw all the empty seats in CD7 that should have been filled by our delegates.

Hatch's advantage was the unions that endorsed him- many of those unions reimbursed members that were their delegates for their travel expenses to Rochester. That was enough of a margin to turn what was a three way race on paper into a narrow Hatch win.

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by: dyna @ Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 09:21:05 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Ballot seems beside the point (0.00 / 0)

I'm not sure the preference ballot is going to mean anything. We won't be overwhelmed with people coming to the caucuses just to vote like in 2008, but there will be some of that, and if that group is different from the group that becomes delegates to CU/SD conventions, then it won't indicate anything. The Secretary of State's office requires the straw poll, which is why the parties are doing it. If was up to me, I wouldn't bother, or I'd open it only to those elected as delegates.

That said, since it will be given credence, any candidate in the single digits probably should just drop out. The odds that a differential between voters and delegates could make a 6% candidate competitive for delegates is pretty minimal. They'll to persuade decided delegates to switch, not just undecided to make up their minds. Nor would such a candidate have a reasonable hope in the primary. I'll also predict that if there is a clear break between a leading and trailing group, the trailing group might as well admit this isn't their year.

I'll also add that in prior gubernatorial threads, I've objected to worrying about delectability so early in the process, and said this is the time to pick who we want regardless of electability, because then we're trying to read minds. That statement ceases to apply Wednesday. We'll have some indications, and some candidates clearly will be out of the running.  

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by: ericf @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 22:22:39 PM CST

I'm not sure Kelliher will do as well.... (0.00 / 0)

....as some think. She'll do okay in the Twin Cities but I would expect Rybak and Thissen should take some Mpls. votes. And I'm not sure she'll do as well outstate (Bakk and Rukavina should do better there). I also think that given the fact that committed progressives usually show up to these things and go on to the other conventions (and ultinately the state convention), I'm not sure I would write off John Marty just yet. I think "undecided" might do unexpectedly well Feb. 2.

"...if my thought-dreams could be seen, they'd probably put my head in a guillotine..."----Bob Dylan, 1965.

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by: lams712 @ Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 01:46:24 AM CST

Things to watch for (3.00 / 1)

Does the Speaker of the House clear the 30% threshold?

Has Tom Bakk made inroads in the metro?

Does Paul Thissen continue to surprise?

Do Steve Kelley and Susan Gaertner make a dent?

Has Entenza's ground troop investment paid off?

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by: roughrider @ Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 08:28:11 AM CST

Martha Anderson Kelliher? (0.00 / 0)

I can't speak to what others have seen, but I have not seen ANY outreach to Greater MN from the MAK campaign.  We've seen several others (Steve Kelley, Tom Bakk, Matt Entenza (Moorhead, MN) and Mark Dayton).  But not a blip from the MAK campaign.  

She'll get smoked if she doesn't have a better campaign game.  All the party regulars up here in the NW quadrant of the state have expressed skepticism about her.      

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by: NorthernMNer @ Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 09:54:51 AM CST

And RT? (0.00 / 0)

I think MAK is our Coakley candidate. Smart and capable, but does not inspire or connect unless one on one.

How does RT play up there?

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by: blogvirgin @ Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 19:39:35 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The smear letter (0.00 / 0)

Actually helped his name recognition up here in the Northern CD 7, since Rybak had to kick it into overdrive to fight that letter, it sparked discussion about him.  At our last county DFL meeting, Rybak's name was one that was mentioned as being a good, viable (not to mention telegenic) general candidate.

His impressive fundraising numbers hadn't been released at that county meeting, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a better then expected showing for him in this quadrant.    

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by: NorthernMNer @ Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 20:46:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Range prediction (0.00 / 0)

I am in the strange position of being largely undecided (still!) and I won't hazard a statewide prediction because there are just too many variables. I guess MAK is a logical frontrunner, but Rybak and Thissen are closing well.

I will make one prediction that might surprise people. Tom Rukavina will carry the Iron Range over Bakk by a fairly large amount. Bakk will have to make up numbers elsewhere (and he may) to stay in the race. This won't mean much to the future delegate count, but it bears mentioning. If I'm wrong I'll say something nice about a suburb.

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by: Minnesota Brown @ Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 12:34:36 PM CST

Interesting... (0.00 / 0)

Bakk has been by far the most present candidate in this neck of the woods.  Perhaps he is trying to rack up some numbers out of the range to make up for the lost votes going to Rukavina?

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by: NorthernMNer @ Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 12:42:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

special interest money (0.00 / 0)

I think the biggest elephant in the room come election time is going to be special interest money. Many voters (especially swing voters) are fed up with politicians who are funded through special interest groups, making it seem that they are representing the corporate interests over constituents. Consider the outrage over the SCOTUS decision, many who post on here are fed up with that process also.
Yes, I realize that there aren't necessarily large dollar amounts being floated to the candidates currently, but they all (except Marty) still take it when offered.  If the GOP manages to nominate someone who doesn't take any special interest, we will be in trouble with swing voters.
I will support whoever the DFL candidate is, but I'm going to caucus for Marty because his beliefs match mine the closest. One of the major problems is that so many of the candidates sound exactly the same, but with Marty you know that he has fought for what he believes in and will continue to.  

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by: rachel_nygaard @ Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 18:35:09 PM CST