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Apples-to-Apples fundraising comparisons

by: Joe Bodell

Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 08:23:24 AM CST


There have been lots of fundraising numbers flying around in the past couple of weeks as gubernatorial candidates look to spin their prowess on the donor circuit into positive press and grassroots support. But can we compare their numbers on an apples-to-apples basis?

Sure. Here's how (and a big thanks goes to Robin Marty for helping me assemble these numbers).

This might be a little difficult to read, so let's break it down: the columns you'll want to watch closely are all the way to the right, in Dollars Per Month and Dollars Per Donor.

The idea here is that candidates started raising money at different times from different people, so we want to get an idea of how quickly they're raising it and from whom -- a higher Dollars Per Donor figure means the candidate is hitting up fewer donors for higher amounts, and a lower figure means the campaign can go back to those same donors repeatedly for more donations.

Dollars Per Month can tell us how quickly a candidate taps out their fundraising "base" -- if the candidate has only been in the race for a few months but has raised a bunch of money, there's a decent chance this rate will fall off quickly as they get into tougher-to-get dollars. The same thing happened to Paul Thissen after he pulled in "low-hanging fruit" in 2008.

So with Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Matt Entenza, and Paul Thissen all bunched up around $182-$184 per donor, we don't know a whole lot about their takes other than that MAK has raised money faster than the other two (by virtue of being an official candidate for less time than the others. Steve Kelley -- whose totals here are accurate, as confirmed by his campaign this week, btw -- has a lower dollars-per-donor figure, so on average he can hit those same donors up for more money this year than the others can. Ditto Tom Rukavina.

On the GOP side, it's tough to do any kind of comparison, since at last check we still don't know how many individual donors Tom Emmer had in 2009.

Update: R.T. Rybak just reported a total fundraising take of $278,000 since November of last year -- breaking down the numbers as accurately as possible leaves Rybak with $92,667/month for his gubernatorial committee, and a dollars-per-donor figure of $200. Rybak is in a unique position in that he spent all of last year campaigning for reelection, so he had a custom-build fundraising call list waiting for him last November. Rybak reported having $25,000 cash-on-hand at the end of 2009 -- but a big fundraising push at the beginning of this year as well. His fundraising came from a total of 691 donors.

Metro-vs-Greater Minnesota comparisons would be quite interesting for Rybak.

Joe Bodell :: Apples-to-Apples fundraising comparisons
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something we would like to see from candidates (0.00 / 0)
We've been pretty limited from what candidates are willing to talk about.  For example, there is a lot that can be done with COH numbers.  Bakk looks to have a very competitive edge there, simply because he can quickly add additional staff, lots of mailers pre-caucus (and based on my mailbox lately, he's done that for sure), and advertising if he likes.

Not having a COH for Entenza, which we have requested, makes a direct comparison a little difficult.

Another factor that we were tracking, but that only a few candidates seems willing to give so far, is percentage of donors coming from Minnesota.  That's one I would really like to see since it would give great perspective as to in state support. Only Kelley, who is at 78% in state, and MAK, who is at 94% in state, have been willing to share so far.  We hope more campaigns will offer that after seeing this analysis.  Otherwise, I guess we wait until the reports come out next week and do it ourselves.

Robin is a freelance editor and writer.  Follow her at http://twitter.com/robinmarty


precinct caucuses and groundhog day (4.00 / 1)
From my wife:

The precinct caucuses are on Groundhog Day. If the groundhog sees his shadow, that means six more candidates for governor.


Any figures for John Marty, Susan Gaertner, (0.00 / 0)
et. al.??? Just curious. A great, imformative chart thus far.

"...if my thought-dreams could be seen, they'd probably put my head in a guillotine..."----Bob Dylan, 1965.

We're working on them (0.00 / 0)
More info as numbers and spin are released.

[ Parent ]
Eh, Apples to Pears maybe (0.00 / 0)
I still assert that monthly averages are a poor measure of velocity and subsequently a poor indicator of future success. The data simply isn't granular enough.

There's an implicit assumption in this analysis of a constant fundraising rate and climate.

It's not just about how many months a candidate has been fundraising for, but also during which periods. Interest in the race has not been constant, nor has donors willingness or ability to contribute to campaigns.

I don't think one can safely assume that had any candidate been in the race longer their total fundraising take could be calculated by simply adding their monthly rate multiplied by the additional number of months. Moreover, if we did operate under that assumption than every month a candidate wasn't running they were effectively leaving tens of thousands of dollars on the table. With as much at stake as we have this year, wouldn't that be an incredible act of candidate malfeasance?

But clearly it's not that simple.  And extrapolations into the future, are just as worthless as extrapolations into the past. There simply isn't enough data until the reports come out to draw any real meaningful conclusions on anything other than gross totals or gross numbers of donors.

If somebody wants to go through the reports (when they are released) and break down contributions by month or quarter, than we could see how each campaign performed relative to the others for the same period and relative to themselves for future and previous periods.

Even then a number of candidates were campaigning long before they ever officially filed. While they couldn't accept contributions in that time period, they certainly could have been soliciting donors to give once they did form.

Lastly, if you do include Rybak in the analysis, you should only include his 2009 fundraising total, not his total to date. Otherwise you're really not comparing apples to apples, since no other candidate has provided information about their January take.



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