| People who have been reading my stuff on Bachmann over the past year or so may also remember me discussing Bachmann's Ron Paul/women's health care strategy as a concerted attempt to win her a solid majority. The reason I mentioned that months ago has to do with Bachmann's aspirations outside the district: she has built a base as a national demagogue with millions of fans. But it will be tough for her to go higher than Congress if her election totals tend to be marginal and dependent on the existence of a large independent vote in her district.
A solid and outright majority next time around (a Bachmann win without the need for an independent splitting vote) would be a huge advantage for Bachmann if she seeks a Senate seat or governor's nod. (She needs one of those to get to the White House, which is exactly where millions of conservatives want to see her.)
How about the Bachmann opponents?
Tested against her potential 2010 opponents Bachmann leads Tarryl Clark 55-37 and Maureen Reed 53-37. The magnitude of those leads at this stage certainly has a lot to do with the Democrats' low name recognition, as 82% of voters don't know enough about Reed to have an opinion of her and 68% say the same of Clark. Bachmann's leads over them will probably get smaller as they become better known, but she is still over the 50% threshold considered safe for an incumbent.
It doesn't matter if the Bachmann lead over Clark and Reed "gets smaller," except in the short term. What matters is, whether Clark or Reed can close a huge gap and become competitive with Bachmann.
Even given the fact that they face a huge number disadvantage going into this race, the Democrats have regularly blown this. One of the strategies that has been regularly run out as a Dem strategy for this is: "Shhh! Don't point out to people that Bachmann's a nut, liar, and bigot. That will alienate potential voter in the district!"
In a district where a Bachmann victory is the way to bet, that's proved to be a moron political strategy. In light of the numbers, there is really no reason to donate anything to a candidate who won't point out that Bachmann is a nut, liar, and bigot. (You want me to support you, work for you, give you dough--so that you can use the same failed strategy as your failed predecessors?)
Nah, you shouldn't give money to Dems who won't even go down fighting. Why would you give money to candidates who are going to go down "sucking," candidates doomed to go down and determined to do so without doing any serious harm to the career of a national demagogue?
DFL candidates can do Bachmann demagoguery some damage, even if they doomed to lose the election in a GOP dominated districted. That would be purpose of donating time and money--to enable a brave to make a stand (and a reputation) for fighting Bachmann's lies, hatred, and sectarian proto-fascism. The purpose of such a campaign would be to make Bachmann's hateful and divisive brand of politics public, force the facts into the local media by having candidates talk about them, campaign on the ugly facts about Bachmann--force her to respond...which could weaken her nationally, by letting people know what she's really all about.
That's the kind of campaign against Bachmann I would support--yes, even if it was doomed to lose--because it would get the facts out into the light, here in Minnesota, now. Years ago I hoped that Wetterling and Tinklenberg would run such a campaign...never happened, because they followed the conventional wisdom ("you've got to reach out to the middle") in a district with unconventional realities, against a candidate who "thrives on division, gets fat on division."
Time to face facts: if Clark and Reed mount separate efforts, those efforts will die politically, die miserably and ineffectually. Since Reed seems determined to stay in until no Dem has any hope of winning--I would advise Clark to start going for Bachmann's throat, turning up every incidence of madness and lies (and they are legion.)
If Clark wants to emerge from this as a hero rather than a zero (a la Wetterling and Tinklenberg) that's the way to do it, win or lose. Win or lose, millions of Americans will support a valiant effort against a hateful demagogue--similarly, millions of Americans will have contempt for another failed milksop "reach out to Republicans and independents" effort.
Having said that: Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and Grand New Year to All! Ho ho ho...
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