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Coleman leading for GOP Gov nom -- without running?

by: Joe Bodell

Mon Nov 16, 2009 at 20:31:21 PM CST


That same Rasmussen poll that showed Tim Pawlenty losing Minnesota even if he's the GOP's presidential nominee apparently asked about Norm Coleman running for Governor -- and found some surprising information. For fear of linking to Rasmussen too many times in one day, here's one to TPM:
The numbers: Coleman 50%, former state House Minority Leader Mary Seifert 11%, and other candidates in single digits.

The Democratic race is a tie between Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak and former Sen. Mark Dayton at 30% each, with other candidates in single digits.

Within the Republican electorate, this is about name recognition, plain and simple. Marty Seifert is leading the way among the hardest of the hardcore activists, and these numbers are going to change once the RPM's endorsement is decided -- especially if the former Senator stays out of the race.

On the DFL side, it's interesting to note that while Dayton is well-known statewide, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak is running even with him with plenty of room for movement.

Margaret Anderson Kelliher, speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives and another announced candidate, picks up eight percent (8%) of the Democratic vote. Six percent (6%) favor Matt Entenza, who served as state House minority leader from 2003 to 2006. Both are announced candidates for governor.
Another five percent (5%) of Minnesota Democratic voters prefer some other candidate, and 20% are not sure whom they support at this point.
As with the Republican field, this is all about name recognition. Those who get support in these polls are those whose names are known by primary voters.

But hey, numbers are good, right? Right!

Joe Bodell :: Coleman leading for GOP Gov nom -- without running?
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Seems like of the top tier (0.00 / 0)
Entenza and Dayton will go the primary no matter what and Rybak and MAK will abide no matter what. If this poll is at all correct it seems like Entenza needs to win the endorsement to have a shot in the primary and Rybak looks like the best shot for a DFL endorsed candidate to win the primary.  

More a poll of name recognition than popularity... (0.00 / 0)
Dayton and R.T. have been struttin' their stuff before the TV cameras for most of this decade and it shows. Meanwhile Entenza, MAK, and even Seiffert have toiled in near obscurity in the bowels of the capital. Thus at this early stage of the campaign only us poligeeks even recognize their names and support them.    

Poll the DFL delegates and you'll get a much different result (0.00 / 0)
The real delegates (as opposed to the "supers") are the ones that matter, and their support seems to be building around Paul Thissen or Margaret Kelliher.

 

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