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Elwyn Tinklenberg backs out of MN-06 race

by: The Big E

Tue Aug 04, 2009 at 22:39:30 PM CDT


Today, Elwyn Tinklenberg ended his campaign to win DFL endorsement and face Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) in November 2010.  Tinklenberg cited the probability of a hard fought 13 month campaign against another DFLer and the disadvantages the winner would face as the prime reasons.

I am annoucning that as of today I am terminating my campaign for Congress.  This is obviously not an easy decision for me, but I have come to the conclusion that it's the right one.  While the image of the next campaign against Michele Bachmann is certainly energizing, the path to that campaign is becoming increasingly improbable.  I'm proud of our last campaign.  We did better than almost anyone outside the campaign expected.  We built a national support base and proved that a strong Democrat with enough time and resources could win the Sixth District.

Now, however, we are faced with the prospect of the next thirteen months being a battle among Democrats.  In a difficult district during tough financial times we will be spending large amounts of time and money trying to defeat each other rather than defeating Michele Bachmann.  That is not a campaign I want to wage nor is it the kind of campaign that strengthens our chances of electing a Democrat next fall.
(tinklengberg2010.com)

Tinklenberg hints at this, but I'll say this explicitly:  after a grueling, 3-way DFL battle that would have been certain to go to the primary, the winner would only have 7 weeks to campaign against Bachmann.

This comes as a shock to me as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) had hooked Tinklenberg up with one of their best campaign managers, Dana Houle.  Maybe I should have seen this coming, though.

I had a telephone interview with Tinklenberg scheduled for Friday.  He never called.  Due to my heavy workload (you know that J.O.B. thing), I just never got around to following up with Dana, but was planning to today. The reality is that Tinklenberg may have been wrestling with this painful decision since at least Friday of last week.  

I spoke to Dana about the announcement.

The Big E :: Elwyn Tinklenberg backs out of MN-06 race
He reiterated the disadvantage any candidate would face after a bitter, 13 month intra-party battle.  He is confident that Tinklenberg would have prevailed (would anyone expect anything less), but emphasized that 7 weeks is nowhere enough time to battle Bachmann.

"We'd have to spend almost all our resources on the primary," he explained.  "So we'd have to pretty much start from zero in our 7 week race against Bachmann."

Dana, I, everyone and their dog know that this is a conservative district and tough for any Democrat to win.  Dana emphasized that it also has a strong independent streak.

"Looking at the numbers, many people vote independent up here," he said.  "Democrats cannot afford to spend all their time contacting only Democrats who vote in primaries when we need to be persuading conservative Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans to vote for the El and not Michele."

"Look, El outperformed both Obama and Franken in the sixth," he continued.  Obama lost by 6-7%, Franken by nearly 20%.  Tinklenberg lost by 3%.  

Dana emphasized that the fundraising for Tinklenberg had been going fine since his arrival.  I inferred that the reason he told me this because he didn't want people to think  Tinklenber couldn't raise the money.  Tinklenberg's reluctance to fundraise has often been cited and if fundraising was an issue, better to end the campaign now than grind on to a more depressing, bitter end later.

Dana wasn't sure of what his next move would be.

"There are plenty of races out there," he said.  With a skill set like his I can't imagine that he'll campaign-less for long.

As for the outlook for this race, that post is tomorrow -- I'm interviewing Tarryl Clark.  Suddenly, the questions I'll be asking have become very different.

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