| Dana was suggested to Tinklenberg by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). Before anyone begins to freak out about DCCC meddling in MN politics, we should also all consider his hiring is great news for anyone interested in defeating Bachmann. The DCCC has ranked this race as one of Democrats top chances for picking off an incumbent Republican.
Dana believes that you have to adapt to whatever works best in each state. Anyone worried about a brain-dead DCCC automaton running the campaign by some generic playbook that seems destined to fail, has nothing to fear with Dana running things.
For example, the local politicos in New Hampshire all suggested that the best way to meet voters was at the dump. This seemed illogical, but considering how badly Hodes had lost in the last race, he was willing to try any method to get him in front of voters. This district in NH is very rural and difficult to door knock. But everyone goes to the dump periodically. So every Saturday the candidate or at least a bunch of volunteers were talking to everyone waiting in their cars to get into the local dumps.
This is important with the MN-06 district. Many Democrats don't necessarily vote the party ticket. MN has a history of vote splitting. But this is a problem for any Republican, too. With Bachmann's documented pattern of making insane statements, many Republicans may consider her an embarrassment. Where she is cartoonish and divisive, Dana plans on playing up what a nice, decent guy Tinklenberg is and how he has a record of bringing people together.
While many states have significant drop-offs in turnout for off-year elections, MN doesn't. Unlike other states where the "get out the vote" (GOTV) effort makes all the difference, MN doesn't have the huge drop-off. It seems to me that without Obama and Franken campaigns sucking all of the oxygen out of the state, Tinklenberg will get as much attention as the governor race. Furthermore, Tinklenberg is a well known candidate in his district.
"El doesn't have to prove that he's electable this time," Dana said. Tinklenberg didn't lose by all that much after all. With Dana running a efficient, smart and grassroots campaign, he claims Tinklenberg can make up the difference. "We can build on the good things that he has already done."
Furthermore, the state's media had always given Bachmann a free pass on her inflammatory statements. But the blogs pushed her meltdown on Chris Matthews Show and the nation's media has been paying attention every since.
"She'll provide plenty of fodder," Dana told me. Bachmann can't seem to get enough of the media spotlight good or bad. With blogs paying very close attention and the national media following suit, Tinklenberg can play up how sane, reasonable and genuine he is.
"We know how to take out Republicans in strong Republican districts who say inflammatory things," he continued. He explained how Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R-CO) was well known for her unapologetic, hardcore right wing opinions and not afraid to tell everyone. But her rants and statements became the focus of the campaign and Democrat Betsy Markey beat her 57%-44% in 2008.
I asked Dana about the Bob Anderson Factor. Bob Anderson ran in the Independence Party primary unopposed and won. Despite not campaigning, he claimed 10% of the votes last November.
"There's always going to be a percentage who always vote third party, but I think that El was not well-known enough," he answered. "Plus he didn't have enough money. Then suddenly in 24 hours he had plenty of money but wasn't prepared to make the best use of it."
Plus, Dana is experienced putting together a solid communication strategy and expects to have plenty of really good people applying for campaign positions. After all, this will be the state's highest profile race after the governor's race. I expect a consistent message and I expect Tinklenberg will hit back when attacked this time -- something he didn't do last time.
Dana hasn't delved into the districts numbers from 2006 and 2008, but is certain he'll figure out the best mix of methods to employ in each area of the district to get the word out about his candidate.
Next I brought up the rumors I'd heard about Tinklenberg's poor fundraising.
Dana replied that it's hard to raise money when nobody gives you a chance of winning. As a former fundraiser, I can see his point. Success breeds more success but if you feel like your slogging uphill carrying an anvil, I know from experience how hard it is not to just bail and try again another day. However, this time around, Dana is certain that most people see Tinklenberg's chances as good.
Finally, Dana comes from the blogosphere.
"I should have instant credibility in that aspect," he said. And well he should. He's one of us ... except of course millions read him. He understands the new political age as he's on the forefront of it.
He knows that the blogs raised the vast majority of the million plus Tinklenberg received in the last few days of the campaign. He knows that the blogs will pump up Tinklenberg and he knows the can shine the spotlight of ridicule on Bachmann whenever she opens her mouth and let's her hate, ignorance and cluelessnes spew out.
In summary, Tinklenberg has a blog star running his campaign at a time when most campaigns only have a finance director running the fundraising. On paper, Tinklenberg is the perfect candidate for his district. He's a former minister, was mayor of Blaine, ran MNDOT and comes across as a decent, genuine guy. Dana will play up Tinklenberg's natural tendencies and hit Bachmann hard on the issues. Bachmann has been bad for her district and if Tinklenberg has a consistent, clear message (which I fully expect with Dana running things), I expect him to do very well.
The wild card we cannot anticipate is Bachmann's next insane, bigoted or absurd statement. But with the nation's media focused on anything she says, I'm quite confident that it will get major press and that Dana will take advantage of it.
UPDATE
I cross-posted at Daily Kos. There were some great comments over there, too. |
