| 10. Tom Bakk: As I noted after the CD3 fundraiser last week (upon which several of my upgrades and downgrades are based), Bakk has a great story to tell, but needs to tell it more clearly and effectively to be successful. He'll have the trade unions on his side, but it takes more than loyalty to get convention delegates from outside the Range -- and without the endorsement, he's not likely to have much of an impact in the primary.
9. John Marty: Marty looks like Bakk in reverse -- he'll have the uber-liberal wing of the convention on his side, but is going to have trouble outside the Minneapolis Senate districts.
8. Margaret Anderson-Kelliher: The House Speaker presents an interesting case. Of the three candidates not yet officially running for Governor, she's the only one who specified last week that she was "considering" getting into the race (Rybak and Coleman studiously said nothing about the race itself, but were pretty clear in their intentions). She's a skilled speaker, and reminded me a bit of Hillary Clinton in her delivery...but my wife didn't hear the same thing I did, so who knows.
Until she decides one way or the other, we just can't peg her on this board.
7. Paul Thissen: Thissen's campaign got its hands on a DFL email list -- do the other campaigns have the same list? Maybe. Probably, even. But Thissen is pushing hard on the end-of-PCR fundraising deadline. It will be interesting to see how well his early fundraising success holds up this year.
6. Susan Gaertner: The Ramsey County Attorney is an extremely intelligent, insightful individual. Her campaign appears to be working with her on loosening up a bit in front of crowds, perhaps to shed the lawyerly image -- there was a big difference in her one-on-one comportment and that she showed before an audience. Stump speech needs work, but hey, it's June in an odd year.
4 (tie). Steve Kelley: Kelley moves up a bit this month -- regression to the mean in media/news and bumps in intangibles and my personal take (also known as With-All-Due-Respect-and-Humor-Write-Your-Own-Diary-If-You-Don't-Agree!). Steve showed at last week's fundraiser all the things it took him a long time to learn in the 2006 cycle -- namely, that you need to connect with an audience on more than just sound policy. He was the only candidate present to advocate for full marriage equality ahead of this weekend's Pride Festival, which should not be lost on the Stonewall DFL when it comes time for their endorsement.
Whether that endorsement matters on the floor of a convention remains to be seen, but the point remains that with so many candidates, one organization or another making a key endorsement at the right time could be what puts an endorsee over the top.
4 (tie). Chris Coleman: I'd seen Chris Coleman speak a few times before last week, and hadn't thought of him as the especially charismatic type -- but in a string of speeches, he managed to stand out with a few well-timed jokes and keeping his speech simple and pointed. A couple of conversations with politicos around the state have also hinted at strong support for Coleman due to family connections in Northern Minnesota -- again, with so many candidates, who knows what the key factor in an endorsement will be?
3. R.T. Rybak: Rybak is a natural speaker. He gets bonus points for sticking it to Tim Pawlenty and his budget priorities on Twitter today -- not being afraid of stirring up the right-wing beehive is a great way to fire up the base.
And last but not least, in our standard squishy liberal way, we have a continuing tie at the top:
1 (tie). Matt Entenza and Mark Dayton: As noted, both of these well-funded candidates took hits in this month's rankings -- both lost a point in Media/News, although this one is a bit iffy since Entenza's team has done a good job stringing together big-name endorsements like Hennepin County Attorney Mike Freeman (among others). Dayton takes a slight hit in the staff area more because of what the other campaigns are doing than anything his campaign is or isn't. Entenza takes a slight hit on the personal take due to a lackluster stump speech -- with so many candidates in the room together, it's easy to tell who has a great grasp of intricate policy issues and who has great charisma. Entenza clearly has the former, but seemed to be missing some fire in his brief speech, which included (as many do) a quick summary of his upbringing and how he got where he is.
Nevertheless, Dayton and Entenza remain in very strong positions at the midpoint of 2009. It's worth noting that both Matt Entenza's and Steve Kelley's campaigns have started blogging here on MPP -- Make some time to drop in and connect with them, as the staffers covering those accounts know their way around and can answer any (reasonable) questions you have. Paul Thissen and his campaign both have accounts, and have been known to drop in from time to time...hint hint, nudge nudge, wink wink...
Overall, I'm beginning to like the way this field looks. It will almost certainly shrink before next year's state convention, and may grow before or after that -- but I can see numerous paths to a primary win, not all of which involve boatloads of money being spent before September. There could be some very interesting dynamics in this group. |
