El Tinklenberg will also take on Michelle Bachmann

If it's Clark (0.00 / 0)

I will definitely be spending as much free time as possible working on her campaign once she were to expand from St Cloud and open an office in Washington County.

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by: Andrew19 @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 19:58:20 PM CDT

But if not (0.00 / 0)

I guess I should say that I'd be definitely willing to give El another shot.  Sometimes it takes two tries at the general to pull it out.  And in my American Politics seminar, someone did a project on seats flipping in Minnesota and they found most Congressional seats that flip in Minnesota do so in midterm elections.

Let's get a top recruit and really screw with Bachmann.  Let's just see more attack ads please, there werent NEARLY enough considering who the opponent was.  I didnt see a single ad that showed her saying that outrageous crap on Matthews, why the hell not?  Attack ads are usually stupid and annoying but when you have something legitimate to attack, then you damn well better do it.

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by: Andrew19 @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 20:03:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What about Reed? (0.00 / 0)

Personally I doubt Clark would run. She would risk losing and she wouldn't have a Senate seat to fall back on. Maybe in 2012 if we lose this time around but I don't think she'd risk her Senate seat and leadership position for a competitive primary vs Tinklenberg and Reed.  

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by: Populista @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 20:04:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

State Senate seats are up in 2012 as well (0.00 / 0)

It's the short cycle for them -- redistricting will occur between 2010 and 2012, when all legislative seats are up for election in their new boundaries.

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by: Joe Bodell @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 20:12:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oops (0.00 / 0)

Forgot about that. Then maybe it wouldn't matter as much as she'll have to be up for re-election three elections in a row. Still, she's got a very good leadership role that I'm not sure she wants to abandon and would be at the top of most DFL gubernatorial canidates Lt. Governor lists if she doesn't make a run for Congress or Governor.  

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by: Populista @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 20:22:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Wow (0.00 / 0)

I did not know that.  

But agreed with Populista  (hey its Andrew from over at SSP!)  Clark wont run, she's too much of an up and comer and will be running for Governor some day, hopefully after a successful 8 year stint as LG.  Or something else, LG's are kind of a wasted position, but it'll get her positioned.

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by: Andrew19 @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 20:23:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hey Andrew! (0.00 / 0)

Great to see you 'round these parts.

Clark's name seems to come up whenever there's speculation about higher offices, and I'm not entirely sure why. She's very politically savvy, but I'm reminded of the boy who cried wolf. Idle speculation can only remain idle for so long before it starts getting ignored, ya know?

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by: Joe Bodell @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 20:27:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Tarryl Wins Audiences (4.00 / 1)

I saw her at the MyDFL. I expected not to be impressed. She blew me away and won top honors in the speaking category of the poll, published here at MN Progressive Project.  

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by: Grace Kelly @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 21:15:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good to see you around (0.00 / 0)

I was hoping you'd start posting over here more often one of these days. Do try out out the Breadsmith/Jamba combo.

As for Clark. Pogemiller won't be majority leader forever. Being majority leader may be a better set up then Lt. Governor for a future run for Governor.  

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by: Populista @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 20:57:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

So we got two blue dog democrats (0.00 / 0)

running in a district where Bachmann can get 47% of the vote (during a bad week, after she got a ton of negative publicity and was facing millions in out of state money.)

Reed's a blue dog, right? I read that on Liberal in the land of Conservative. The wisdom is that a liberal Dem can't win in Bachmann's territory; so we get these blue dogs. The problem is that there are liberals who won't vote for a blue dog no matter how much they loathe Bachmann. (I know some! They are holding out for a candidate with Wetterling's politics.)

Tinklenberg bought himself enormous props from the DCCC by taking a bundle of the money that people gave him to win the 6th district--and giving it to the DCCC. I think $250000 of other people's money makes him a "player" with the national and out of district Dems. Some 6th District local Bachmann opponents are pissed at him because, after all, the money was sent to defeat MB, not to increase Elwyn's streed cred with the national Dems. But a big hunk of the money has now gone into a general Dem sinking fund, instead of being spent on defeating Bachmann next time.

So there's that against Elwyn too. Some say the money should have been used in the 6th District to build a better ground organization (the DCCC is certainly not spending $250,000 on running their "bachmannwatch" web page.

There's also the fact that another s-load of money is going to come pouring in the 6th District again next time (money from all over the country in grassroots/netroots donations) to defeat Bachmann if she runs again. Liberals around the country love to hate Bachmann and are correctly convinced that she's a bigotry mongering extremist--whoever runs against her as a Dem opponent will be on the receiving end of gravy comparable to what Tinklenberg got in the weeks before the last election.

That is a mighty tempting prospect for any ambitious Dem politician. The downside is that a Dem opponent will surely lose to Bachmann if that opponent can't bring in some of the IP vote (which the IP leadership was unable to deliver to Tinklenberg in the last election. How embarrassing for the IP leadership, not to be able to deliver its own vote.)

Another factor: Bachmann is currently courting the support of the Ron Paul supporters in the local GOP, who apparently staged some kind of coup this week and had their man elected chairman. If Bachmann can bring aboard the Ron Paul guys the same way that she did the "talk radio Republicans," her seat is safe.

Which means, at this writing--a Dem opponent, blue dog or no, will lose to Michele in the next election, but wind up sitting on a big pile of grassroots donations, which he or she can then donate to the national Democrats to buy him/herself a place at the table and a better Rolodex...

But still, we fight on.

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by: Bill Prendergast @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 00:16:37 AM CDT

What does independent mean? (0.00 / 0)

Bill,

Thanks for the laugh.  I really needed one today.

How embarrassing for the IP leadership, not to be able to deliver its own vote.

That's the funny thing about independents.  They tend to be independent.

The Original Gordon

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by: Gordon @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 09:22:54 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

It is funny (0.00 / 0)

You're right, the "independence" in the name "Independence Party" means "independent." But the "party"  is supposed to mean "party"--as a party, it's supposed to have some kind of cohesion, and a decision making authority composed of candidates and leaders its voters respect.

Apparently that's not the case. The IP leadership cross-endorsed the Dem Tinklenberg "early and often"--more than one IP leader publicly stated that the IP voters should vote for Tinklenberg.

They ignored their own party leadership and gave ten per cent of the total vote--virtually the entire IP vote in the district--to a maverick candidate that the party leadership had specifically rejected.

The IP was unable to direct a vital three or four per cent to Tinklenberg. They needed to do that to have any real chance of ever taking a Congressional seat in the only MN district where they have real strength. (I'd pointed this fact out to IP people at the time of Bachmann's first run for the 6th seat, too.)

But even after they decided (two years later) that the only way to compete for the seat was to put a Dem in there--they couldn't deliver the IP vote they said was theirs. So arguably, the IP isn't a party at all. It's a bunch of leaders without followers, making deals with each other but being ignored by their own troops (who are apparently not their troops.)

I think that Bob Anderson, the maverick IP candidate who defied the IP leadership and took ten per cent of the vote, is thinking about running again. If he does and keeps his ten per cent in tact, Bachmann wins again--I guess. Of course--and this is the point--it's not really Bob Anderson's ten per cent. They didn't vote for Bob because they knew who Bob was and what he stood for--they voted for Bob because he was not the Democrat and not Bachmann.

So Bob doesn't control that vote anymore than the old IP leadership did. It's an uncontrolled, ten to twelve per cent "conservative protest vote against the two big parties" that's there for anyone who's smart enough to exploit it.

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by: Bill Prendergast @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 09:52:36 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Nobody controls 100 percent (0.00 / 0)

Of course not even the Republicans or Democrats control and deliver 100 percent of their vote in any election.  There is always a certain percentage of breakway votes for one reason or another -- even for the established major parties.  So it's not a uniquely IP dynamic.

The Original Gordon

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by: Gordon @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 10:32:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

that's exactly right (0.00 / 0)

No party controls 100%. How about a party that controls fifty per cent of its own voters? I think that's getting towards the minimum of your voters that you can control and still call yourself a party.

You see, Gordon, in the 6th district election last time--what happened could be explained like this: pretend that the Independence Party is a football team (called, for example, "the 6th District Independents) and the IP leaders were its coach and quarterback. So they show up at the big game, the coach and the quarterback call a play--and then rest of the team wanders off into the stands, to buy a hot dog or a beer, to watch the game, etc.

That is "funny" as you say, but it gives the crowd the impression that this isn't really a team, in the sense that the other teams are teams. It is also very disappointing to the crowd--because what's at stake in this game is two more years of foreclosures and "do-nothing except for special interests" government that Bachmann represents.

I didn't expect a hundred per cent of the IP voters to do what their acknowledged leaders told them to do, but having practically none of them do as their elected leaders advised--that is embarrassing for the IP, and it does discredit it as an organized political party with a coherent ideology and the support of its own voters.

I expect that a significant portion of the IP voters will desert to the Ron Paul republican people, because he does offer a kind of ideology (even if I think it's nuts.) The IP hasn't produced an ideology that helps the party to cohere--and without that, all you've got are some vaguely dissatisfied libertarians and conservatives who are registering a protest vote, wandering around leaderless in the wilderness. I think at least some of the IP voters will be tired of that next time around, and they're more likely to drift GOP than Dem if Bachmann can bring the Ron Paul people on board.

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by: Bill Prendergast @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 11:56:10 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

This is bugging me, Bill (0.00 / 0)

Which means, at this writing--a Dem opponent, blue dog or no, will lose to Michele in the next election, but wind up sitting on a big pile of grassroots donations, which he or she can then donate to the national Democrats to buy him/herself a place at the table and a better Rolodex...

That could be placed on MB's website, it's so pro-Bachmann.  

Each election, more things are learned.  MB has walked herself into a bad situation which shows she's out of touch and irresponsible.  T-Berg did garner a lot of votes, and some of those people will be darn mad that he didn't win (especially given the recent MB antics and Repbulican extremist action... of course, Americans remember for two weeks, it's been said.)

You write well Bill, but it's the content that will be important in this situation.  Are you for Bachmann or against her?  You've painted her as crazy (or she did that herself) but there is life beyond that label.  

What about helping T-Berg as he works hard to reach CD6 constituents?

 

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by: Holly Cairns @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 10:45:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Just calling like I see it, Holly (0.00 / 0)

I disagree that anything that quoted or anything that I wrote was pro-Bachmann.

As you well know, I think Bachmann's delusional as well as dangerous. I did help Tinklenberg in the last election, and he knows that. I intend to help him in the next election, if he captures the nomination and is the candidate best positioned to defeat Bachmann.

But that doesn't mean that I pretend that the election dynamics in the 6th District aren't real. What I wrote is how I view the possible outcomes at this writing. "Cynical," perhaps--but pro-Bachmann? Never. I'm surprised that you even have to ask, I've been writing against Bachmann since, what, 2002? Telling people that she's a stealth theocrat and extremist?

Because I think "Bachmann is still likely to win at this writing" doesn't mean I'm pro-Bachmann. Because I'm cynical about the Dems and what a Dem candidate can get out of this election, doesn't mean that I'm pro-Bachmann. My cynicism about Dem motives is based on my observation of the campaign the last time around. If you can rebut my thinking on that, that's what this thread is for--but you no I'm not and will never be pro-Bachmann; I'm one of her bete noires in this district.

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by: Bill Prendergast @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 12:04:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Bete Noires (0.00 / 0)

If you can rebut my thinking on that, that's what this thread is for--but you no I'm not and will never be pro-Bachmann; I'm one of her bete noires in this district.

Yes, I was thinking that.  And you've been consistently paying attention to her antics for a long while now, creating a great blog about it.  A little jealous, but good blog.  I know what to get when I go there.

Because I think "Bachmann is still likely to win at this writing" doesn't mean I'm pro-Bachmann. Because I'm cynical about the Dems and what a Dem candidate can get out of this election, doesn't mean that I'm pro-Bachmann.

Here's where you might call your local DFL office or T-Berg's office to give suggestion, rather than B and Moan on a blog (comments or post, it's still press, in a way.  Like you are publicist for the situation.)

I know you are cynical about the Dems but I don't get why, exactly.  Perhaps we should really get into it someday. You must surely realize there is some give and take with every candidate, as none of us humans are an exact match as far as values and issues go...  

I think your stuff is great Bill or I wouldn't even bother to talk about it with you.  I hope you aren't pissed.

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by: Holly Cairns @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 12:24:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No, I'm not pissed (0.00 / 0)

The reasons I'm cynical about Dems are exactly those that I laid out for you in this comment thread and others. But you also know that I usually vote for Dems (because there's no other viable option for a person with liberal politics). And now you know that I supported ET in the last election and will do so again in the next one--if he's the candidate best positioned to topple Bachmann.

I don't see writing in to blogs and complaining about Dems as mere "bitching and moaning," because that's not all I do. I am involved; I do more than the "bitching and moaning" you see here. But I reserve the right to B and M, too. I don't see any political percentage (for me or the voters in my district) in remaining quiet about something that is actually happening or likely to happen.

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by: Bill Prendergast @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 13:32:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

New Nickname (0.00 / 0)

I've decided I don't like the nickname Tink.  I wonder if he's attached to that.

I like T-Berg better.  Sounds like a Swedish superhero.

Yeah.

Anyone?

"Supporters like to call him T-Berg" says the local newspaper.

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by: Holly Cairns @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 10:34:55 AM CDT

A couple of thoughts (0.00 / 0)

There is a complete lake of understanding about the IP.

There is no real IP in the 6th district. There is no cd6 IP committee, no local units, nothing. El was endorsed at the IP convention and about 40 people were there only a couple of people were from the 6th.

It's been years since the IP held a meeting in the 6th. I wish everyone would quit hoping that somehow the people who voted IP are some type of block or organized group. They aren't. The IP is simply a "none of the above" option when it came to the last election in this area.

Bill is right about the Ron Paul factor.  Remember that Ron Paul is a Republican and he is also the de-facto leader of the IP movement, at least up here. Bachman is also thinking about wooing the IP vote and her cozying up to the Paul people is a really smart move.

Bachman is now a National figure. She wasn't last election until the end.  This should help the candidate who comes out of the endorsement.

I hope the DFL party take a good look at the choices and decides to back the savviest candidate who takes advantage of the unique situation that this race offers. The last election the candidates couldn't get a reporter to show up if they lit themselves on fire. This election they may pay attention if the DFL candidate stands for something.   If they both run in the "mushy middle" as Bachman calls it, then the press will focus on Bachman and the IP candidate becomes more viable.

Both DFL candidates right now want to be considered "blue dogs". I don't know how you beat Bachman on the issue of being fiscally conservative. Both want to be seen as being moderate Pro-lifers. Once again how do you beat Bachman on this issue?

Now I have a rare point of view on this race and these two candidates. I helped run the endorsement race against El last election. I then helped Dean Barkley. So I know a little about both El and Reed and the IP.

El will be a much better candidate this election. He instinctively gets it.  Reed will have to run a Wetterling type endorsement race to beat El. But Wetterling was a progressive liberal and Reed is not. So to win she will need to prove she can run a better race than El. That's going to be hard to do.  Remember that Tinklenberg got more votes than Obama did in the 6th.

The biggest clue about who's going to run the best race right now is to watch the blogs and see how these two handle the opportunity handed to them by Bachman. There is dozens of blog and news posts every day about Bachman. Add Bachman to your Google news search and you will see what I'm talking about.

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by: taxpayingliberal @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 11:17:53 AM CDT

taxpaying liberal: (0.00 / 0)

--I'd add something else to what you say here.

A complicating factor in this very strange congressional race is that a lot of Democrats in Minnesota and around the United States think that it is a good thing that Michele Bachmann is in government, representing the 6th district.

Isn't it bizarre? But they think that is so, because having an extremist as a high profile spokesman for the GOP is good for the Democrats--Michele's very public nonsense and craziness alienates responsible voters and thus marginalizes the GOP.

It seems incredibly cynical and selfish for Dems outside the district to adopt that attitude--but it's true; Dems and progressives have made exactly this argument on Dump Bachmann, on the Daily Kos, inside the DFL, and even here on this blog. They're quite open about it, some of them even think it's a "funny situation"--while we in the 6th see the highest home foreclosure rate in MN and layoffs and the foregone federal capital that's been kept out of the district since Bachmann got in.

So that's a factor you left out in your otherwise interesting analysis of the IP and the election dynamic. Last time around I was wondering if enough IP voters would be so sick of the economic illness in the district under Bachmann that they would flip and vote Tink (as their party leadership advised.) But that didn't happen--what happened seems to be the usual throwaway protest vote against both the major parties.

By the time the next election rolls around, the Obama federal money will be coming into Bachmann's district and creating the jobs that she was never interested in creating. I don't know how that will "cut"--Bachmann will certainly try to take credit for any economic improvement that federal spending creates in the district, but will GOP and IP voters be so stupid as to allow her to take credit for improved quality of life due to the federal spending they say they hate?

I found your remarks and information about the IP in the 6th very interesting. The Ron Paul supporters will strengthen Bachmann, if she can close that deal--and she is working hard on closing it.

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by: Bill Prendergast @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 12:20:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

taxpaying liberal (0.00 / 0)

Wow, unique perspective offered here.  I think we should listen up when taxpayingliberal talks.

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by: Holly Cairns @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 12:25:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Unfortunately 2008 was our best... (0.00 / 0)

....shot. I honestly don't believe ANY DFLer can win that district. Bring on redistricting!!!!!

"...if my thought-dreams could be seen, they'd probably put my head in a guillotine..."----Bob Dylan, 1965.

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by: lams712 @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 14:18:55 PM CDT

Working the District (4.00 / 1)

I have doorknocked extensively in Blaine and Forest Lake. These are nice people and easy to talk to if you get them early, take time and make a conversation. No "rushed" presentations spoken at them. Also, we have to come multiple times, to change minds, we need at least three contacts. We have to create a talking buzz. We have to convince key leaders. It is possible, we have just not done it yet.

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by: Grace Kelly @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 14:53:38 PM CDT

I wish that Tinklenberg had put (4.00 / 1)

that $250k into the ground organization in the 6th. That would have made it easier to organize the kind of grassroots contact that GK is talking about.

But my wishes aren't fishes, so there ain't much on the dishes...

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by: Bill Prendergast @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 17:29:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree (0.00 / 0)

the $452,898 that he had could have paid for 20 field organizers for a entire year who could develop a real grassroots army to go out and change hearts and minds in the district. Now at best it will pay for some attack ads in the final weeks of the race.  

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by: Populista @ Wed May 06, 2009 at 21:01:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

easy guys and gals. (0.00 / 0)

Populista,
A couple of things.
1st regarding Sen. Clark. There is no chance she is going to run for this seat unless a lot of people die in the next few months. Not with El in the race.

About the money.
Thank god El gave the money to the DCCC to win the open NY seat by 250 votes. He was about the only guy in the country who could have done it. Let's face it. That 250 k didn't come from the district but came from democrats all over the country, much of it in smaller amounts.  Giving it to the last and only winnable race was the team thing to do and the right thing to do.

Your "Now at best it will pay for some attack ads in the final weeks of the race." May be a little short sighted.

This is going to be a major race and once again should lead the country for the 2nd time in the last 3 election in fund raising.  We could be looking at a 5 million dollar race or more. And that's just El's part. If that happens, look for another couple of mill out of the DCCC. With the kind of money El is capable of raising (thanks to Michele) the grassroots army we all want will be well fed and armed.

You'll get your 20 field organizers. You'll get more than that.

I understand the anger. But this play will return a lot more than it cost. If only our banks had been this savvy.

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by: taxpayingliberal @ Thu May 07, 2009 at 01:33:30 AM CDT

El (0.00 / 0)

Sometimes it takes a couple of tries by the same challenger to knock off an incumbent. Its too early to write Tinklenberg off as a challenger.  If he loses again, then we should start looking elsewhere.

As far as spending the money, a lot of that came in at the very end of the race in response to Bachmann's nutbaggery.  Tinklenberg (or whoever we nominate) should have access to national money earlier now that the word is out on Bachmann.

Clark is a serious candidate.  Maureen Reed is not.  Being the IP nominee for Lt. Governor is absolutely worthless.  She merits no further consideration.  

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by: Dan @ Thu May 07, 2009 at 09:16:48 AM CDT

It looks good for T-Berg (0.00 / 0)

Maureen Reed is not.  Being the IP nominee for Lt. Governor is absolutely worthless.  She merits no further consideration.

Hmm, except if she or another DFL possibility drags T-Berg through the mud.  We could hurt ourselves on the way, and suffer later because of it.  P Lord Faris style.

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by: Holly Cairns @ Thu May 07, 2009 at 09:26:50 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

absolutely (0.00 / 0)

The DFL has a long history of beating itself, and that could well happen here.  

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by: Dan @ Thu May 07, 2009 at 09:42:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]