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ABM Poll: Voters want Coleman to concede, Pawlenty to sign certificate

by: Joe Bodell

Sun Apr 26, 2009 at 11:20:37 AM CDT


A new poll from Grove Insight Research shows that Minnesota voters want Norm Coleman to concede and Gov. Pawlenty to sign the election certificate that will allow Al Franken to be seated -- finally -- in the U.S. Senate.

The poll, commissioned by Alliance for a Better Minnesota, showed that 59% of surveyed voters believe Coleman should concede to Al Franken, while just 34% believe he should keep his legal challenge going. Those numbers fit with the 61% who believe the recount and challenge process has been fair and impartial, against just 24% -- the true dead-end of the conservative rump -- who still question the process.

54% now believe that Franken won in November fair and square, while just 26% believe Coleman actually won. Among the remainder, 14% are unsure of who actually came out ahead and 5% believe the two candidates actually tied.

As for Governor Pawlenty, there are some potential landmines waiting for him should he decide that he, and not the state Supreme Court, is the Decider:

What ought to be of concern to Governor Pawlenty is the fallout should he refuse to sign a certificate of election. A clear majority (58%) believe that failure to certify Franken after the Minnesota Supreme Court rules raises at least "somewhat serious doubts" about Tim Pawlenty. This number grows to 64% when voters are told that the governor is legally required to sign an election certificate. In fact, even four in 10 (40%) self-identified Republicans say they would have "serious doubts" with their Republican Governor should he fail to sign an election certificate after the Minnesota Supreme Court rules.
And of course, there's this:
When given two opposing viewpoints, nearly half the electorate ascribe to the view that Pawlenty's motivations are not based on legitimate concerns about the process, but a desire to play partisan politics and help conservative Republicans in Congress. In fact, Minnesota voters are more likely to see the failure to certify as an emblem of Pawlenty's ambition than they are to believe that he prudently is waiting for the matter to be resolved in the federal courts.
Not that our dear Governor will care, but there it is.
Joe Bodell :: ABM Poll: Voters want Coleman to concede, Pawlenty to sign certificate
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Minnesota Poll offers similar findings (0.00 / 0)
I presume that you saw the Star Tribune Minnesota Poll that has found that 64 percent of those responding think that Norm Coleman should concede the U.S. Senate race to Al Franken.

A companion poll looks at Favorable opinions for Coleman and Franken.  A word of caution if you read the article as I believe the headline is misleading. Assuming that this is not a follow-up interview using the same poll participants, a different sample group would be expected to provide "Favorable" ratings within a narrow margin.  Franken's moved from 47 to 43 ... which is exactly the margin of error stated in the article ... 4.  However, Coleman's move from 46 to 38 clearly shows deterioration.

FYI : as a point of comparison, according to an April 14-15 PublicPolicyPolling survey, 47% of voters approve of Governor Pawlenty's work with 40% disapproving.  
So, if Pawlenty is sitting at 47 and Franken at 43, Franken is relatively on par with Pawlenty and unchanged while Coleman clearly is collapsing.
IMO, the Strib headline writer unfairly picked on Franken.

That said, for Franken, he clearly has a problem. He was elected with only 42% support. Considering the venom that his opponents spew, I doubt that Franken will ever cross 55.  The PPP survey reported that 62% of Minnesota voters like the job that Klobuchar is doing with just 25% dissenting. Klobuchar's numbers are helped by a 30% approval rating from Republicans ... a number that Franken could only dream of getting.  

Pawlenty numbers at 47 Favorable to 40 Unfavorable show the delicate minefield that he must walk ... balancing the budget ... and "to sign or not to sign".  The MN-Supreme Court agreement to Coleman's timetable clearly gives Pawlenty a Big Break as the question will now move to the back burner until mid-June.  The "to sign or not to sign" question may not have a big impact on his rating, but how he is perceived in handling the budget will set the tone for 2010.
FYI : I for one believe that he has to run for Governor again if he wants to be considered a force in the GOP ... look at how well former Governors (NY George Pataki, MA Mitt Romney, AK Mike Hickabee) versus a sitting Governor (TX George Bush) have performed on the national stage.


Alliance for a Better Minnesota Poll data online (0.00 / 0)
For those who want to look more deeply into the attitudes of Minnesotans that the Star Tribune and ABM poll were measuring, the ABM poll is online at http://allianceminnesota.org/poll

Yeah, thanks for the link (0.00 / 0)
I should have included that in the post. Thanks!

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