| The central and southern parts of the district are fairly similar to each other but dramatically different from the north in every way. The major industries are agriculture and tourism, offering little in common with their neighbors to the north. The exceptions to this are the west central counties of Aitkin and Crow Wing which are part of the Cuyuna Iron Range. These areas are more socially and economically conservative than those in the more northern parts of the district, and in some cases very much so, with abortion being a key issue for many.
The one thing all regions of the district do have in common is the dislike and distrust of outsiders, a sentiment felt particularly strong on the Iron Range, where even those who have lived there for 20 years are still considered packsackers.
The general perception is that the entire 8th congressional district is a DFL stronghold. While once true, this has not been the case since the last census when its boundaries were moved farther west. In fact, it could be argued that it stayed blue only because of Jim Oberstar, a deeply entrenched pro-life democrat who attracted many independent voters and republicans.
The Great Eighth was certainly heavily DFL when Chisholm native John Blatnik was elected in 1946 and it consisted of St Louis, Cook, Lake, Itasca, Koochiching and Carlton Counties. The 8th remained a DFL stronghold throughout the 1970's when James Oberstar was elected, despite its expansion southward to include Pine, Kanabec, Isanti, Chisago and Anoka Counties. The DFL dominance, however, started to slip after the 1980 redistricting which resulted in the removal of Anoka County and the addition of Aitkin, Mille Lacs, Wadena, Crow Wing and Cass Counties and southeast corner of Beltrami County. The slide continued during the 1990's when Beltrami and Wadena Counties were removed and Benton, Sherburne and eastern Morrison Counties were added. A stronger shift to the right came in 2002 when both Benton and Sherburne Counties were moved into the 6th congressional district and the 8th's boundaries were extended farther west to include all of Morrison, Hubbard and Wadena Counties and southeast Beltrami County. The 2012 redistricting plan adds only a few more townships in rural Beltrami County, leaving the 8th virtually unchanged from the previous census.
The end result is that the 8th congressional district is no longer solidly blue, but rather bluish purple. And the 8th district of today, while still leaning blue, is more socially conservative than at any point in its history.
Whomever the DFL candidate is, one thing is clear: in order to win this district, he or she must be able to attract both independent and republican voters and at the same time be able to energize the organized labor/progressive base. Not an easy task under the best of circumstances and even more difficult in a district as diverse as the 8th with boundaries that run from the Canadian border to the metro area.
About the candidates
One needs to have a great deal of energy and dedication to run successfully in a district of this size. The older, diverse population mandates a broad based coalition of support, from the traditional family-oriented conservative populace in the south to the progressive organized labor activists in the north. There are three basic things one needs to know about the 8th district in order to properly assess which candidate is going to run best against Chip Cravaack and the Tea Party.
1. We are very parochial.
If one runs for office in this district, they must be from here. In almost any other district in Minnesota, carpetbagging is not a problem. It doesn't sit well here. Where a candidate is from and where they live really matters to us.
Both former City Councilor Jeff Anderson of Duluth and former Congressman Rick Nolan of Crosby are natives of the 8th district who live and vote here. Former State Senator Tarryl Clark of St Cloud is not from here, nor does she live or vote here.
2. We are an older demographic comprised of a rather unusual mix of traditional social conservatives and a spectrum of economic liberals.
All three DFL candidates in the race are progressives, but Nolan's experience in owning and operating a small business and creating jobs in the district, as well as his expertise in world trade, is very likely to appeal to the districts independent voters, liberal republicans and conservative democrats. Anderson's business experience of selling radio ads and renting out disc jockey services is not likely to have the same appeal. Clark has no similar business experience upon which to draw support.
Age may also play a role this year. Nolan is older than the other candidates in the race, and one (Anderson), has resorted to taking repeated cheap shots at his age. In a district where the majority of the population is over 50, it is reasonable to expect that these voters will identify with the energetic former congressman and take a very dim view of assertions that such a talented, accomplished person is unable make a difference or has nothing to offer the residents of northern Minnesota.
3. We are more politically independent than ever before, despite numbers that appear to slightly favor the democrats.
When democratic voters in this district become disaffected with a candidate, many easily bolt for independent or republican candidates and those on the Iron Range in particular don't have a problem with sitting out an election if they deem necessary. This was clearly demonstrated in 2010, when Chisholm native Jim Oberstar lost not only the independent and republican voters he usually attracted but also many democratic voters, to Lindstrom resident Chip Cravaack. This was particularly true in St Louis County, where the 18-term incumbent saw his margin plummet from 74% against Rod Grams down to a paltry 57% In addition, many democrats on the Range and in Duluth opted to simply not vote for the long time congressman, resulting in a deadly 17% drop in support from previous elections. The successful 8th district candidate in 2012 must be able to lure those voters back to the DFL column.
Anderson has won only one election for city council in the very economically and socially liberal city of Duluth. Clark won one special election and one regular election for state senate in liberal St Cloud and lost her only previous campaign for congress in a conservative district. Nolan won two elections for state legislature in a district that included conservative Morrison County and won three congressional elections in a district (parts of which are now in the 8th) that elected republicans both before and after his service.
Anderson is unproven, both in elections in socially conservative areas and in congressional elections. Clark lost her only campaign for congress against another Tea Party incumbent in her home district. Only Nolan has a proven record of winning congressional elections in conservative areas, drawing support from both independents and republicans needed to win elections in the 8th congressional district.
Organized labor is important to carrying northeastern Minnesota, and as noted previously the successful DFL candidate will be able to energize this DFL base. Anderson has been endorsed by the International Association of Fire Fighters, Clark by the United Steel Workers, and Nolan by both the United Food and Commercial Workers and the Teamsters. Additionally, many labor leaders, including the current presidents of the Duluth Central Labor Body, Carlton County Central Labor Body, the Northeast Area Labor Council and the Iron Range Labor Assembly have all issued personal endorsements of Nolan. These personal endorsements are extremely rare and point to an excitement among organized labor for the Nolan campaign not generated by either Anderson or Clark, despite the fact they have been in the race longer than Nolan.
In conclusion, Anderson is 1 for 3, Clark is 0 for 3 and Nolan is 3 for 3.
Interestingly enough, every single straw poll in this race confirms this analysis. Nolan handily won both the 8th Congressional District DFL Central Committee straw poll in October and the 8th district DFL precinct caucus straw poll earlier this month by margins over 50% and with more votes than his opponents combined total. Nolan also won the on-line poll conducted by Minnesota Public Radio by a similar margin and the Timberjay newspaper in Anderson's hometown of Ely currently shows Nolan leading their on-line poll at 64%, with Anderson following at 27% and Clark once again trailing at just 8%. In summary, Nolan has won every poll done in this race to date.
Nolan has stated from the day he entered the race that he will abide by the DFL endorsement. Anderson and Clark have both indicated an interest in pursuing a primary if they do not receive the endorsement. Primaries are divisive, consume a tremendous amount of both time and money, and greatly diminish a candidate's chances of unseating an incumbent. All indications are that the frontrunner in the race, former Congressman Rick Nolan, is the candidate most likely to return today's 8th district to the democrats.
It's time for the DFL to move ahead and unite behind a proven winner. |
