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MN-08: Rick Nolan Wins DFL Straw Poll By Overwhelming Margin

by: keewatinrose

Thu Feb 09, 2012 at 07:00:00 AM CST


Former Congressman Rick Nolan of Crosby emerged as the big winner in the 8th District DFL straw poll Tuesday evening,  winning more votes than the combined total of the other candidates in the race, former city councilor Jeff Anderson of Duluth and former State Senator Tarryl Clark of St. Cloud.

According to unofficial totals* obtained from the 8th District DFL late Wednesday evening, Nolan won 1546 votes, while Anderson garnered just 1,035 votes and Clark trailed significantly behind the others with a mere 414 votes.  It bodes well for Nolan that he would still hold a commanding lead if the 288 votes tallied in the 'undecided' category were combined with those of any other candidate vying for the endorsement.

Nolan is the only candidate who has said he will abide by the DFL endorsement, which he described as "the first step in our campaign to take back the Fighting 8th."  While other candidates have dismissed the importance of the endorsement, the former State Representative and Congressman has long insisted the endorsement system is important because it enables people of modest means to run for public office, noting that primaries consume a tremendous amount of both time and money and diminish a candidate's chances of unseating an incumbent like Tea Party Chip Cravaack (R-MN/NH).

Congressman Nolan is not resting on his decisive victory in the DFL straw poll, however. In a statement released Wednesday, he emphasized the need for unity from across the 8th district, saying his campaign would continue to build their broad base of support, remaining focused on defeating Cravaack and his right wing extremist friends:

As DFL'ers, we're uniting on the issues. We are determined to end wars of choice, establish universal single payer health care, protect Medicare and Social Security, re-invest in infrastructure and rebuild our economy to generate the good paying jobs we need in northern Minnesota and across the country.

For those things to happen, we now need to unite behind one Congressional candidate to defeat Chip Cravaack and take back the 8th for progressive values. Moving forward, I am determined to unite our party and marshal the resources we're going to need to defeat Mr. Cravaack and make working families, seniors, students, small businesses and all of us in the 99 percent matter again in Washington.

Cuyuna Range native Rick Nolan has clearly solidified his position as the frontrunner for the DFL endorsement by this very decisive victory among party faithful.  

The precinct caucuses represent the first step towards the 8th district endorsing convention in May. As we go forward, let's hope Anderson, Clark and Nolan run positive campaigns that unite the district rather than divide it so we can emerge from the convention as a party unified against Chip Cravaack and his right wing extremist agenda. Fighting amongst ourselves would serve only to benefit the Tea Party incumbent and his union busting right wing extremist friends who are determined to destroy the middle class.  

*A few precincts are still out, and the party is in the process of verifying the results.

keewatinrose :: MN-08: Rick Nolan Wins DFL Straw Poll By Overwhelming Margin
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it's a nolan/clark race (4.00 / 1)
With Nolan almost 3:1 COH, I just can't imagine how jeff will compete toward endorsement.  How does he even afford gas to get around, much less print any lit without incurring some serious debt.

And given that caucus turnout was at normal turnout levels and virtually anyone who wanted to can become a delegate to their SD/CU convention, potential delegate counts should roughly mimic the straw poll results.  I'd wager roughly 2 rounds of balloting and it'll be Nolan's endorsement.

Discussion then lends itself to how much the Party will get involved with the primary.  CD 8 "should" go DFL in the general, regardless.  The DFL has also had a terrible track record of late for protecting it's nominees (just look at the horrendous coordinated campaign of 2010).  And with so many ballot measures with far more dire implications, wouldn't they rather focus time and resources on those than wade into an expensive and ultimately futile war between candidates.

If I were the DFL, I'd stay far far away, let it sort itself out and go in guns blazing when there's one official candidate - joining forces with the DCCC as they will certainly do.

That surmised, Clark clearly has the resources to mount a serious media blitz going toward the primary.  Nolan's got his work cut out for him.  Win the early SD/CU conventions and rack up the delegate count and convince Jeff to quit and throw his support.  Then focus on raising money.  That's the only way someone will beat Clark.

All the while, Clark will continue amassing a war chest.  The tv market is so cheap and likely primary turnout will be low, thus mailable universe relatively cheap...expect a clark air-wave and mail war and probably a well financed paid canvass.

My odds: 10:1 Clark wins primary.  Just can't see how anyone else tops her.


a few things (3.00 / 1)
1st, I tend to agree that unless Anderson can find a way to ramp things up post-caucus he's in trouble. He had a strong enough showing on the Range and in Duluth to be a serious player at the convention if he can continue to close with those delegates, but he's clearly in 2nd place for endorsement. The lack of financing should preclude him going to the primary unless he gets the endorsement; I would think his best play to actually get the endorsement is to announce his plans to abide.

2nd, the idea that the DFL should not try to support its endorsement is a poor one. What bigger way to make itself less relevant than to show to endorsed candidate, "caucuses are irrelevant, we will do nothing for you, ignore us" than sitting it out until the primary? I know there are some folks around here that would hail this decision, in order to sound the death knell on the caucus system, but this would be an ugly play. Overtly screwing activists is not a good way to go into an election.

3rd, a Clark advantage in a primary is premised on the idea that she's seen more like Mark Dayton than Matt Entenza to DFL primary voters. Right now, I think the 8th sees her as more like Entenza than Dayton. If Nolan raises the money to get on tv for the primary (and as an endorsed candidate, I think he can & will) I'd take that bet at 10:1 in a heartbeat...

4th, will Clark's FR hold up if she skips the endorsement? Maybe she can keep bringing in anti-Bachman money from outside the state, maybe EMILY's List keeps it flowing, but maybe not. If Tarryl's money starts slowing after getting blown out for endorsement, her path to victory gets significantly harder.

Nolan's in great shape for the endorsement right now. Lots of work to do, but he's the front-runner and that's the position to be in.


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