8th District 4th Quarter Fundraising Numbers are in

I don't think (3.00 / 1)

that anybody's being written off, just yet.  But these are some provocative numbers.  Some legitimate polling of CD-8 likely DFL primary voters (like me) would be great.

I don't mean, that a pollster has to specifically call me.

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by: dan.burns @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 16:36:15 PM UTC

Clark may have lots of $$$... (3.00 / 2)

But if she's perceived as an outsider who moved into the district, all those $$$ will never win her the endorsement or primary!

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by: dyna @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 16:58:55 PM UTC

If the CD8 DFL is dumb enuf to endorse Nolan or Anderson (4.00 / 1)

...count on the DCCC to disappear that Red to Blue offer the next day. You people need to get real in a hurry. Clark is the only one who has demonstrated the ability to raise the funds n-e-c-e-s-s-a-r-y to win. The DCCC is not a charitable organization. There will be plenty of districts with qualified candidates, ready to take what the CD8 DFL is willing to give away just to spurn a carpetbagger.

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by: username @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 05:00:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

3rd Cd (3.00 / 1)

In the race nobody is talking about:

Barnes: $53,318. COH $28,462

Sund $16,490 of which $6430 was inkind. COH $14,599.

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by: taxpayingliberal @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 17:25:42 PM UTC

No point in talking. (3.00 / 1)

You can stick a fork in those two. $50k won't get Barnes any outside help, and $16k is hopeless. Unless a candidate with name recognition and fund raising power shows up shortly after February 21, write off CD3 for 2012.

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by: username @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 04:53:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Money is important...but (3.00 / 2)

If the candidates campaign/message isn't selling to the voters, a boatload of cash isn't going to help that much.
All three candidates have been working the 8th District hard for the past 7 months. Granted, straw polls are just a snapshot in time, but I think the straw poll being conducted district-wide on Caucus night will provide all of us with a clearer picture of how this race stacks up.

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by: outstate @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 18:19:31 PM UTC

Oh, please (4.00 / 1)

If the candidates campaign/message isn't selling to the voters, a boatload of cash isn't going to help that much.

10 days after getting his butt waxed in South Carolina, Mitt Romney spent a "boatload of cash" in Florida. You should probably check the results and rethink your misconceptions about how politics actually works.

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by: username @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 05:24:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for your brilliant political analysis. (2.00 / 1)

And he will get blown out by Obama in the fall because he totally sucks as a candidate.  No amount of money can change that.

By the way, Mr. "Username," the fact that you think the people of the 8th District should be willing to sell our congressional seat to the highest bidder exemplifies everything that is wrong with modern-day politics.  If the only thing that matters is money, we should shut down this web site and disband the DFL party because it is all pointless anyway.  No,  Mr. "Username," Northeast Minnesota is not a business venture ripe to be bought out by a Bain Capital style leveraged buy-out.

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by: Joel in Duluth @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 06:00:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Florida (0.00 / 0)

What happened in Florida probably does make Obama nervous.  Gingrich had momentum from South Carolina and was polling first in both Florida and nationally.  Then Romney spent 13 million dollars on negative ads and ended up crushing Gingrich.  Granted Gingrich is more vulnerable than Obama and hadn't previously been attacked the way Obama has been, but that money absolutely made a huge difference and Obama is going to be badly outspent in the general election.  For a guy whose polls show him just a few points ahead of Romney, that is a concern.

This isn't about selling seats to the highest bidder.  But you do have to be able to raise real money.  And if you can't, you have no business running for office.  

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by: Dan @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 22:39:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Money just one piece of puzzle (0.00 / 0)

To win you need several things: 1)  Sufficient money to be competitive (note I didn't say "the most money"), 2) An effective campaign organization, and 3)  An effective candidate.  All three are required.  No amount of money can make up for the absence of an effective candidate.

The Romney campaign has zillions of dollars and an effective organization.  Their candidate, however, stinks.  The Gingrich campaign has barely enough money to be competitive, no organization worth speaking of, and a candidate that stinks.  The suckiness of the two candidates cancel each other out, and Romney wins on the basis of money and organization.

The Obama campaign will have more than enough money to be competitive, a highly effective organization, and an effective candidate.  The Florida primary is, for that reason, in no way indicative of the fall campaign.  Quite contrary.

Now, if Mitt Romney was an effective candidate he would be a formidable force given his money and organization.  Thankfully, however, he sucks as a candidate.

Same principles apply in congressional races.

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by: Joel in Duluth @ Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 01:36:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Romney (0.00 / 0)

If Romney was a good candidate, we'd be f****d.  I hope you are right about Obama.  The outside money scares the crap out of me.  

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by: Dan @ Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 06:06:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My commentary (4.00 / 1)

Ok, I can't help myself.  I will try to be nice, though.  

First of all, the endorsement race does not matter.  Clark is not going to abide by the endorsement and she is not going to get the endorsement.  The nominee will be determined by the primary.  Granted, being the endorsed candidate is good for some votes, but the candidate will be picked by the DFL electorate as a whole rather than caucus delegates.

Second, the numbers by Nolan and Anderson are really bad.  To be honest, I was even dissapointed by Clark's numbers, but at least she was into six figures.  With the kind of fundraising Nolan and Anderson are doing, I don't know how people can even consider them serious candidates.

I know that people think whoever is the nominee will get outside help (because that was argued in comments after the third quarter numbers), but the point of my quoting the comment about the DCCC was partly to refute that point.  Even if there is a competitive district, if there isn't a good candidate, the party and Democratic-affliated groups aren't going to pour money into the race.  That money helps those who help themselves.  And it looks like that Nolan and Anderson can't help themselves.

   

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by: Dan @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 18:51:04 PM UTC

Except that the DCCC (1.00 / 1)

has already put this race on it's Red to Blue list, meaning that the money is coming no matter who the nominee is.

http://dccc.org/pages/redtoblue

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by: TonyAngelo @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 21:36:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wrong (4.00 / 1)

The idea that the race being on a targeted list a year out means the money is coming is just not true.  The targeted seats change as candidates and races develop, and even if money comes, the amount that gets allocated to a race depends on what the prospects are.  The idea that national money is coming here no matter how incompetent the fundraising is by the candidate is an idea that people need to get out of their heads ASAP.  

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by: Dan @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 22:45:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MN8 will be (1.00 / 1)

near the top of the DCCC's list no matter who the DFL nominee is. You can take that to the bank.

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by: TonyAngelo @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 22:54:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And you've just explained why (4.00 / 1)

The DFL keeps losing races it should win.  What is worse than being wrong about the quality of the candidate affecting the outside help that comes in, is the idea that we can put up someone who can't run a competent campaign and thinking that someone outside will come in and bail them out.  

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by: Dan @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 23:13:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I didn't say anything like that. (2.00 / 1)

MN8 is low hanging fruit. So I suspect that no matter the nominee the DCCC will want to help that person win.

That doesn't mean anyone wants a bad candidate, but in some ways all of these candidates are flawed, though certainly not as bad as Chippy is.

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by: TonyAngelo @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 00:26:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

DCCC Needs Us More Than We Need Them (2.00 / 1)

For the Democrats to retake the House they need this seat.  If the DCCC is so myopic that they can't see past the fundraising totals, they can kiss my Northeastern Minnesota ass and then throw their support behind the candidate WE decide will best represent US.

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by: Joel in Duluth @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 06:11:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Endorsement is hugely important (0.00 / 1)

In this race, the endorsement is hugely important.  Here's why.  The primary race will be a two-person race between Taryl Clark and the endorsed candidate.  The endorsement will determine who the second candidate is.  Taryl Clark will not be the endorsed candidate.   She will run a money based primary campaign with very little grassroots support in the district.  Grassroots DFL-ers in the district will unite behind the endorsed candidate.  

I am in support of Jeff Anderson, but if Rick Nolan wins the endorsement I will enthusiastically support him in the primary.  I hope that Rick Nolan's supporters will do likewise for Jeff.  If Taryl Clark is the nominee, it will be a catastrophe for the DFL Party and for the 8th Congressional District.  Anyone who doesn't understand that either 1) Doesn't understand the district, or 2) Has never seen Taryl Clark give a speech or work a room.  Sorry to be so blunt, but the stakes are too high to blow this race because we are impressed with Taryl Clark's money.  Mitt Romney has a lot of money too, and he also sucks as a candidate.  Nothing personal against Taryl, who I am sure is a very nice and well-meaning person, but this race is just too damn important.

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by: Joel in Duluth @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 04:46:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Anderson (4.00 / 1)

I hate to break it to you, but Anderson has about as much chance of getting the endorsement as I do.  This discussion is really just about Nolan and Clark at this point.  

You guys also really have to get over the idea that there is something special about the 8th.  If you think people there won't vote for someone form outside the district, just look at who has the job now.  At least Clark lives in Minnesota year round, unlike Florida resident Rick Nolan.  

Didn't Clark get endorsed by the Steelworkers?  You know, the guys who mine the iron out of the iron range mines?  Are those guys not real 8th districters?

I've seen Clark speak and work a room, and she's good.

Here's what is going to happen.  Nolan is going to get the endorsement, but there is going to be a stink on it the same way there was a stink about that straw poll.  Clark will beat him in the primary, and then will go on to win the general over Clark.  Maybe you'll pout about it all year, and maybe you'll even stay home or vote for the Green party.  But enough people are going to suck it up and vote for Clark and she'll be a good rep for the 8th for the next 10 to 20 years.  

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by: Dan @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 23:16:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More Off Base Analysis (1.00 / 1)

I goes without saying that Nolan appears to be in the strongest position with regard to the endorsement.  Beyond that (and I am going to say this in the most respectful way possible), your analysis reflects a lack of understanding of the 8th CD, in general, and the dynamics of this race, in particular.  You have two data points-- fundraising totals and the Steelworkers endorsement, the details of which I suspect you know nothing.  From those two data points you draw quite erroneous conclusions.  If you want to understand what is going on up here, you have to talk to the people on the ground and find out what is really happening.

I'll just make two observations.  First, if Rick Nolan gets the endorsement, it will be because he has the broadest support among DFL activits in the district, and the party activists will unite around him.  A lot of people I respect are for Nolan.  There will be no stench.  Second, a number of years ago a friend of mine ran for a NE Minnesota State Senate seat.  The seat was open, and my friend was running against Tom Bakk in the primary.  My candidate was endorsed by the Steelworkers.  Bakk cleaned his clock.

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by: Joel in Duluth @ Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 01:05:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bruce Lotti? (0.00 / 0)

I see that Lotti ran against Bakk in the 2002 primary, and that at least at some point he was the president of the steelworkers.

 

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by: Dan @ Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 06:16:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes- Bruce Lotti (0.00 / 0)

Indeed, you do seem to be the master of obscure electoral history.  Bruce was the president of the Steelworkers local at ME International, a small foundry in Duluth.  He helped organize the plant while working there.  (A real intersting story there.)  Bruce is an Iron Ranger who had previously worked in the taconite industry on the Range.  For a variety of reasons, Bruce was unable to ever get any traction in the race, and the Steelworkers endorsement ended up not making much of a difference.

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by: Joel in Duluth @ Sat Feb 04, 2012 at 05:08:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

More Off Base Analysis (1.00 / 1)

I goes without saying that Nolan appears to be in the strongest position with regard to the endorsement.  Beyond that (and I am going to say this in the most respectful way possible), your analysis reflects a lack of understanding of the 8th CD, in general, and the dynamics of this race, in particular.  You have two data points-- fundraising totals and the Steelworkers endorsement, the details of which I suspect you know nothing.  From those two data points you draw quite erroneous conclusions.  If you want to understand what is going on up here, you have to talk to the people on the ground and find out what is really happening.

I'll just make two observations.  First, if Rick Nolan gets the endorsement, it will be because he has the broadest support among DFL activits in the district, and the party activists will unite around him.  A lot of people I respect are for Nolan.  There will be no stench.  Second, a number of years ago a friend of mine ran for a NE Minnesota State Senate seat.  The seat was open, and my friend was running against Tom Bakk in the primary.  My candidate was endorsed by the Steelworkers.  Bakk cleaned his clock.

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by: Joel in Duluth @ Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 01:05:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Getting in the Weeds a Bit--Inside Stuff (1.00 / 1)

Tarryl Clark started out this past May with about $130,000 left over from her race against Bachmann. After announcing Clark added another $100,000 the following quarter. No question a significant take. However, Clark had an established national fundraising base due to her run against Bachmann and the fundraising letters and emails that were sent to donors made no mention of who she was running against. Kudo's for Tarryl; a smart tactic as I guess many of these out-of-state donors would rightly assume she was running against Bachmann again. However this past quarter Tarryl added just $40,000 to her bottom line, a significant amount, but a big drop-off nevertheless.

Anderson and Nolan started fundraising and building their campaigns from scratch. It takes time to develop both. I think the fundraising numbers along with any polling numbers from this current quarter will give us a much more accurate picture of how this race is shaping up.  

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by: outstate @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 22:06:39 PM UTC

Getting in the Weeds a Bit--Inside Stuff (1.00 / 1)

Tarryl Clark started out this past May with about $130,000 left over from her race against Bachmann. After announcing Clark added another $100,000 the following quarter. No question a significant take. However, Clark had an established national fundraising base due to her run against Bachmann and the fundraising letters and emails that were sent to donors made no mention of who she was running against. Kudo's for Tarryl; a smart tactic as I guess many of these out-of-state donors would rightly assume she was running against Bachmann again. However this past quarter Tarryl added just $40,000 to her bottom line, a significant amount, but a big drop-off nevertheless.

Anderson and Nolan started fundraising and building their campaigns from scratch. It takes time to develop both. I think the fundraising numbers along with any polling numbers from this current quarter will give us a much more accurate picture of how this race is shaping up.  

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by: outstate @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 22:06:43 PM UTC

We're not grading on a curve (4.00 / 1)

It really doesn't matter that Clark had a head start or a national base, and that the other guys are new to this. Its not an equal playing field no matter how much you want it to be.  The biggest problem with the DFL is rather than recognizing the failures of its candidates, it makes excuses for them.  

And even if they are starting from scratch, the fundraising by Nolan and Anderson was pathetic.  All the polishing in the world won't make that turd shine.  

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by: Dan @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 22:52:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not making excuses for any of the candidates (1.00 / 1)

The point I was trying to make. In the last quarter, Clark added roughly $40,000 to her bottom line...and Nolan less, and Anderson somewhat behind Nolan. All three of them performed under my expectations, but going forward I don't see Clark having a significant advantage as far as raising funds. The figures just don't lie, Clark's fund-raising efforts appear to be on a downward slide. If any one of these candidates breaks from the pack as far as either future fundraising and/or independent polling and/or the caucus straw poll the dynamics may change.  

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by: outstate @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 23:25:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Primary Crossover (4.00 / 1)

Is there any race that prevents primary crossover voting from the Republican side? And if not, then who would Republican crossover Republicans pick?

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by: Grace Kelly @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 22:44:41 PM UTC

Though the possibility (4.00 / 1)

gets brought up a lot, crossover voting rarely actually affects outcomes of primaries.

If there was a coordinated effort here, I assume Republicans would back Anderson, in the (in my opinion, mistaken) belief that a gay man can't win the general.

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by: dan.burns @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 23:08:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What Dan said, (3.00 / 2)

all of the research I've seen says that crossover voting effecting anything is mostly a myth.  

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by: TonyAngelo @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 00:28:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mostly, but not entirely (4.00 / 1)

Usually the primary isn't that close, or Republicans stick to their own primary because it's contested, but they have had organized campaigns to promote crossover voting into Democratic primaries. The recent example that jumps to mind is the recall in the Wisconsin state senate district across the river from the Twin Cities, where the fake Wisdem was closer than comfortable. Those primaries that are affected are the exception, but they happen, enough that I hate open primaries. This time, I don't know that a contested US Senate primary, if they have one, would be enough to keep them home, so they absolutely could swing close congressional DFL primaries.

I'm not predicting any close DFL primaries. We can't know yet. Just meaning in general.

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by: ericf @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 17:24:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

crossover (0.00 / 0)

I think you either have to have fake candidates or a clear general election loser to get much crossover.  I don't know who they would pick, if anyone, in this race.  

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by: Dan @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 23:05:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe (4.00 / 1)

If they saw one candidate being clearly weaker and the primary being close, I think they would crossover. It's certainly not as big a problem as in the Wisconsin recalls, and part of what they were doing was forcing the Wisdems to spend on a primary and buy campaigning time for the GOP incumbents. I could see them trying again since these incumbents won in the GOP wave and are more vulnerable than last year's recalled incumbents.

But since the MNGOP look like they won't have contested primaries, I expect crossover to our congressional races. I'm hoping our legislative primaries are under their radar.  

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by: ericf @ Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 18:10:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ain't gonna happen (1.00 / 1)

There will be no Republican cross-overs, if for no other reason than that the Chipster faction has such a pathological hatred of all things DFL that the very act of voting in a DFL primary will cause such mental anguish that any Chip-head who does so will collapse into a pile of jiggling jello before they have a chance to fill in the ballot.  

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by: Joel in Duluth @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 04:53:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Where was Walz and Wellstone's fundraising... (3.00 / 1)

At this point in the race? Fact is, big $$$ will be needed to win the general election, but not to win the endorsement or primary.

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by: dyna @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 16:31:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Walz (0.00 / 0)

Walz numbers:

3Q 2005 $38K raised, $40K COH
4Q 2005 $36K raised, $40K COH
1Q 2006 $127K raised, $124K COH
2Q 2006 $202K raised, $252K COH
3Q 2006(pre-primary) $195K raised, $244 COH
3Q 2006(post-primary) $207K raised, $207 COH
4Q 2006 (through 10/26) $111K raised, $179 COH
4Q 2006 (through election) $356K raised, $3K COH

Walz raised a total of $1.219M during the 05-06 election cycle.  

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-b...

The FEC online records don't go back to Wellstone's 1990 race.  

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by: Dan @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 23:03:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Did Walz have a DFL opponent? (0.00 / 0)

Not that I remember. If you add Anderson's and Nolan's fundraising together, they're cleary doing at least as well as Walz despite Clark's attempt to suck up all the $$$ on the DFL side of the race.

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by: dyna @ Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 02:14:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Walz (3.00 / 1)

Walz did not have a DFL opponent, or at least he didn't have a serious one.  

Its tough to compare the Walz race with this one, because that was seen as a safe Republican seat coming into the cycle.  That race is an example of the DCCC helping candidates who help themselves.  Walz did it on his own initially, and after demonstrating that he could raise money and was a great candidate (and polls showed a close race) the national money poured in at the end.  

 

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by: Dan @ Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 06:04:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

tangent (4.00 / 1)

Walz was on Midmorning this week explaining his congressional insider trading bill.
http://minnesota.publicradio.o...

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by: ericf @ Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 18:13:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Walz (0.00 / 0)

is pretty awesome.  

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by: Dan @ Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 23:44:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tarryl should have moved to MN CD 3 (1.00 / 1)

I would have gladly lobbied to get a DFL Congressional District 3 visa for Tarryl Clark.  Her style, smarts and experience would be appealing  and competitive in a run against Erik Paulsen in our quadrant of cul-de-sacs.

And dear possums, lets not forget that "Citizen United" enabled bull hockey will far out pace anything Dems can bring to a race in a swing district like the 8th.  "Swing " and "8th District" should not be used in the same sentence.  Forgive me.

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by: JeffStrate @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 17:04:21 PM UTC